It’s only Week 2, but several no-brainer starters are injured at the running back position. That inevitably forces fantasy football managers into difficult spots, such as potentially choosing between Kansas City Chiefs backup RB Samaje Perine and Baltimore Ravens backup RB Justice Hill.
Which Running Back Should You Choose From Samaje Perine and Justice Hill in Week 2?
If this is a decision you are facing, take solace in two things. First, you are not alone. I get hundreds of start/sit questions every week. There are a decent amount containing less-than-ideal names such as Perine and Hill.
Second, it’s a long season. Inevitably, most fantasy managers will be forced into starting a low-upside option at some point during the season. Injuries are the worst.
Neither Perine nor Hill is ranked particularly highly in PFN’s Week 2 Consensus Rankings. They aren’t ranked high in any set of rankings you might look at.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer does its best to solve our lineup conundrums. It gives the edge, ever so slightly, to the guy on the Ravens. The Optimizer has Hill projected for 6.8 fantasy points against 6.6 from Perine.
I have both of these guys close in my rankings as well, separated by a mere five spots. That distinction is largely insignificant when talking about two running backs outside the top 40.
With that said, if forced to choose one of these backs, my Week 2 rankings agree with the Optimizer. Hill gets the nod over Perine. However, regardless of which one you start, you are hoping for 6-8 points, at best.
Perine’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
It would be unfair to fully judge Perine based on last week. He had only been with the team about two weeks. Even so, Perine was the clear passing-down back behind Isiah Pacheco. The only other running back to see the field was fullback Carson Steele, who had a whopping two carries for three yards on a total of five offensive snaps.
Perine didn’t do much, either. He only played nine snaps, catching one of his two targets for 10 yards.
We will probably see Perine play more in games where the Chiefs face negative game script. Unfortunately, there won’t be many. The Bengals have given the Chiefs trouble before, but given how Joe Burrow and Company looked last week, it would be a surprise if the Chiefs had to deviate from their game plan.
Additionally, the Bengals are shaping up to be a team opponents can once again attack on the ground. They were torched by Rhamondre Stevenson to the tune of 120 yards on 25 carries last week. Last season, Pacheco ran for 130 yards on 18 carries against them.
It’s only been one week, but if the trend continues, the Chiefs won’t need much from Perine in Week 2.
Hill’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Hill’s situation is somewhat similar to Perine’s in that he also benefits from negative game script. However, Hill has a clear role on the Ravens that extends beyond third downs.
In Week 1, Hill entered the game on the second play. It’s clear the Ravens do not want Derrick Henry to be a 70%+ snap share guy. Even in a positive game script, Hill should have a floor of 5-7 opportunities per game.
Of course, Hill is definitely a better option when the Ravens project to trail, as they did last week. That is not going to be the case as they are nine-point home favorites over a Las Vegas Raiders team that has to have Henry licking his chops.
The Raiders let J.K. Dobbins rip off 135 yards on just 10 carries. The King is going to eat on Sunday.
Hill played 54% of the snaps in Week 1. It would be a surprise to see him over 40% this week. More importantly, he’s probably not seeing eight targets in a game I expect Lamar Jackson to attempt fewer than 30 passes.
Both Hill and Perine are low-ceiling options, but Hill possesses the higher floor.