The Minnesota Vikings are undefeated through three weeks, and it’s not as if they’ve faced a cupcake schedule. Kevin O’Connell’s squad beat the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 before picking apart C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in a dominating Week 3 victory.
Sam Darnold, whom the Vikings signed for one year and $10 million in March, is directing Minnesota’s high-powered offense and finally delivering on the promise that made him the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
While the Vikings should enjoy their early season success, it’s hard not to look forward to next spring when Darnold will be searching for a significant raise while reaching free agency for the third consecutive year.
How will Minnesota, who drafted QB J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in April, handle Darnold’s pending free agency? What kind of contract will Darnold be looking for next offseason? And which teams will try to sign the former USC Trojan?
Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of O’Connell and Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and answer all those questions, beginning with where Darnold’s production stands through three games.
How Good Has Sam Darnold Been in 2024?
Really good! Darnold had his moments during his stint with the Carolina Panthers, but he’d never really posted sustained NFL success until this year.
Pending “Monday Night Football,” Darnold leads the league with eight touchdown passes and a 10.3% touchdown rate. Installed in the best offensive environment of his career, Darnold knows where to go with the ball.
He’s found All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson for a touchdown in every game this season, including a 97-yarder against San Francisco in Week 2. Darnold carved up Houston’s secondary this Sunday, throwing four TDs in a game for the second time in his career.
Sam Darnold with 4 passing TDs in Week 3. Is he an early MVP candidate?
(by @FedEx) pic.twitter.com/bTbNF22yNf
— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Through three weeks, Darnold ranks eighth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.06). He’s been even better from a clean pocket, ranking second in EPA per dropback (0.55) when not pressured while completing 77.4% of his passes at 9.9 yards per attempt.
O’Connell is pushing all the right buttons to get the most out of Darnold’s elite physical talent. Darnold’s three play-action touchdown passes led the league. He’s third in EPA per dropback on play-action throws, behind only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy.
Having O’Connell as a play-caller and Jefferson as his WR1 certainly helps. However, Darnold hasn’t had TE T.J. Hockenson (ACL) this season, while WR2 Jordan Addison (ankle) has played just 28 snaps.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offensive line has struggled and ranks 21st in pass-block win rate. Darnold has been pressured on 39.8% of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Pro Football Focus’ charting suggests Darnold has been responsible for only 9.7% of those pressures, the eighth-best mark among starting QBs.
Will Minnesota Want To Re-Sign Darnold in 2025? They Just Drafted J.J. McCarthy!
It’s hard to imagine the Vikings giving Darnold a long-term contract extension in 2025, regardless of how well he plays.
Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell let Kirk Cousins depart as a free agent this offseason with the intent of getting on the NFL’s rookie quarterback contract train. Ever since the league instituted slotted contract values for drafted players in 2011, rookie QBs — and their artificially lower salaries — have become the secret to success.
McCarthy will miss his entire rookie campaign while recovering from a torn meniscus, but he still represented a tremendous bargain moving forward. He’ll count for roughly $18 million — in total — on the Vikings’ salary cap from 2025 through 2027. Minnesota will also get a fifth-year option for 2028.
Darnold is making $10 million this year and looking for a significant raise next offseason. For the Vikings, it’s not simply a question of Darnold vs. McCarthy. It’s Darnold vs. McCarthy, plus all the additional players Minnesota can add with its available cap space.
The Vikings would probably love to re-sign Darnold to a one-year deal, allowing him to work as a bridge quarterback while McCarthy gets back up to speed. But Darnold will have too much interest around the league to accept another prove-it pact.
Still, that does leave one more option for Minnesota …
Can the Vikings Franchise Tag Darnold?
While elite players like Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott have boasted enough leverage to insert no-franchise tag clauses into their contracts, Darnold wasn’t in a position to request that sort of language from the Vikings this offseason.
As such, Minnesota could theoretically franchise Darnold to prevent him from reaching the open market. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap projects next year’s quarterback franchise tag to be worth roughly $42 million.
The Vikings could afford that price. Minnesota is expected to have $76 million in 2025 cap space, the eighth-most in the NFL. But again, Darnold’s contract would preclude Adofo-Mensah from going on a free agent spending spree.
Instead, the Vikings’ most likely course of action might involve a franchise tag and trade.
What About Trading Him?
NFL teams are allowed to trade players after they’ve franchise-tagged them.
Just this offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs moved franchised CB L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, while the New York Giants acquired franchised EDGE Brian Burns from the Panthers. In 2022, the Green Bay Packers sent franchised WR Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Each of those players received a contract extension upon being traded. If a team acquires Darnold, it should be ready to pay up. That price tag will affect what the Vikings could get in return. For example, Sneed might’ve been the best corner in the NFL last season. On paper, he’s worth more than the 2026 third-round pick the Chiefs received for him.
But the Titans also knew they would have to give Sneed the four-year, $76.4 million ($44 million guaranteed) contract he wanted. With that expenditure on the table, K.C. could only get a third-rounder in return.
While teams might be interested in Darnold next offseason, they’d also know that A) he wants to get paid and B) the Vikings wouldn’t have much leverage, given that they likely want to turn things over to McCarthy and get Darnold’s salary off their books.
With those parameters in mind, Minnesota might struggle to get more than a mid-round pick for Darnold. If he keeps playing like he has thus far, the Vikings should get a 2026 third-round compensatory pick if Darnold signs elsewhere this offseason.
Tagging and trading Darnold could make sense if Minnesota can get a second- or third-round choice in 2025. But Adofo-Mensah and Co. would also risk getting stuck with Darnold’s $40+ million franchise tag.
Where Could Darnold Land?
The Las Vegas Raiders will likely be searching for a new quarterback next offseason. Gardner Minshew II seemed to win the NFL’s least interesting quarterback battle by default over Aidan O’Connell and may not hold onto the QB1 job for the rest of the year. If the Raiders aren’t in a position to draft a franchise signal-caller in 2025, Darnold might be their best option.
Daniel Jones led the New York Giants to their first win of the season in Week 3, but his contract structure might eventually get him benched. “Hard Knocks” showed Giants GM Joe Schoen spending seemingly his entire offseason trying to replace Jones. Whether Darnold — who flamed out in the Big Apple with the New York Jets — would want to return to NYC is anyone’s guess.
Fields might do enough to convince the Pittsburgh Steelers to extend him next offseason, but Darnold could represent an improvement in Pittsburgh. While Darnold doesn’t offer Fields’ mobility, he’s in a different tier of pure passer than the current Steelers starter.
The Tennessee Titans‘ offensive line is hardly giving Will Levis time to operate, but the former second-round pick isn’t doing himself any favors. Levis ranks 29th in QBR and has lost more EPA off of turnovers than quarterback in the NFL through three weeks. Darnold could be a souped-up version of Jake Browning for Titans HC Brian Callahan, who coached Browning to 2023 success with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Darnold already spent one tour of duty with the Carolina Panthers, but that was several coaching staffs ago. Dave Canales might relish the opportunity to work with a big-armed athlete like Darnold after benching former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young two games into the 2024 season. Carolina might want to draft a QB, and Darnold may not want to return to the Panthers, but the fit is there.
Who Else Is Available on the 2025 Free Agent QB Market?
Aside from Darnold, the only other current starting quarterbacks projected to hit free agency next year are Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett, neither of whom is guaranteed to be their team’s QB1 by the end of the year.
Fields has looked comfortable in first-year Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith’s system and, like Darnold, has guided his new team to a 3-0 record. He took a step forward as a passer in Week 3, throwing for 245 yards in a win against the Los Angeles Chargers. If Fields can keep avoiding self-inflicted errors, he’ll be Darnold’s stiffest competition in next year’s market.
Brissett is probably better suited as a backup at this point in his career, and the rest of the 2025 free agent market is comprised of other QB2s like Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Joe Flacco.
What Will Darnold’s Contract Look Like?
There’s a lot of projection here. Darnold has to stay healthy for the rest of the year in order to cash in next offseason. He briefly went down in Sunday’s game against the Texans but escaped with a bone bruise.
Darnold doesn’t necessarily have to keep playing at this level to land a significant contract on the free agent market, but he can’t collapse. The NFL has already seen Darnold’s nadir. If he starts to look like that struggling quarterback despite Minnesota’s welcoming offensive structure, teams’ interest will wane.
But if Darnold performs like a top-16ish QB for the rest of the 2024 campaign, he should be able to write his own ticket in free agency. Remember, he’s still only 27 years old. Darnold is six months younger than Joe Burrow!
With youth and draft pedigree on his side, Darnold could surpass the Baker Mayfield/Derek Carr middle-class tier of quarterback contracts. His contractual floor would be the 2025 equivalent of the four-year, $160 million deal Jones inked with the Giants in 2023.
Jones’ pact was worth 17.8% of the salary cap in 2023. Adjusted for a projected 2025 salary cap of $275 million, Darnold would be looking at an average annual value of almost $49 million.
And that might only be the low end. This offseason, the Atlanta Falcons gave Kirk Cousins $45 million annually after he succeeded in the same system in which Darnold is now thriving. After watching a 35-year-old Cousins — coming off an Achilles injury — get $90 million guaranteed from a QB-desperate club, Darnold knows what could be waiting for him next offseason.