There are familiar faces galore for the New Orleans Saints in 2024 as they enter a potential make-or-break year.
The Saints have some pretty interesting fantasy football options on offense, including in the backfield, where Alvin Kamara enters yet another season as the team’s lead back.
But Kamara has gotten less and less efficient on the ground over the years. Should fantasy managers be keeping an eye on other Saints running backs as we enter the regular season?
Here’s the fantasy outlook for New Orleans’ backfield ahead of Week 1.
Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 252.9 (186.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 918.9
- Rushing Touchdowns: 4.2
- Receptions: 66.5
- Receiving Yards: 515.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3.0
I don’t want to be dramatic, but is Kamara just a fancy version of Austin Ekeler (three rounds more expensive)?
Ekeler might be joining a new team with a more established threat to his volume on the ground on the depth chart, but the point remains that the trajectory is similar, which is a terrifying thought for a player currently being drafted in the fifth round.
Before we get to Kamara’s profile, I’m not sure how safe his touch count is as he enters his age-29 season. We’ve seen his carry count dip in consecutive seasons (18.5 per game in 2021 to 14.9 in 2022 to 13.8 last season), and I don’t see a reason to think that changes any time soon.
Jamaal Williams enters this season after missing a month early last year, and 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller (nine DNPs as a rookie) pretty clearly has the attention of head coach Dennis Allen.
This was a below-average rushing offense last season, and if the lead role is in question, Kamara’s fantasy value is volatile at best. When he’s handed the ball, are we sure Kamara is still better than … well, the version of Ekeler that we saw last season? That is, a player with limited upside and role downside?
Kamara toted the rock 180 times last season and didn’t rip off a run of more than 17 yards. Do you remember that league-swinging performance on Christmas Day 2020? That was the last time he carried a gain of more than 30 yards.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jamaal Williams’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 188.5 (134.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 782.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 7.9
- Receptions: 34.8
- Receiving Yards: 208.9
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.2
Kendre Miller can’t get on the field, and Kamara’s rushing metrics have been stuck in reverse for a few seasons, theoretically opening the door for Williams to get some work. That said, is this situation any different than last, a year in which he totaled just 368 yards and one (garbage time and completely vengeful) score?
Williams ran for 17 scores in 2022, but those days are long gone. There may be a point in the middle of the season where your roster is ravaged with injuries and chasing a goal line carry makes sense.
We can cross that bridge when we get to it – there is no need to burn a roster spot entering the season on Williams.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Kendre Miller’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 83.6 (64.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 301.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 1.9
- Receptions: 19.3
- Receiving Yards: 225.9
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
The Saints’ backfield looks exactly as it did last year. Kamara is the lead back, and Williams is still around as a backup. The difference this year is that no one should be fading Miller because of Williams.
If you don’t think Miller can completely overtake a 29-year-old plodder who averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 106 attempts last season, then you don’t believe Miller can play in the NFL. The Saints want Miller to be that thunder to Kamara’s lightning, and we should fully expect him to have that role. The next question is, what will Miller do with it?
The Saints didn’t exactly have the greatest offensive line last season, giving Kamara just 1.6 yards before contact. Williams was even less fortunate, averaging 0.9. To be fair, it’s possible that’s more due to his lack of explosiveness, resulting in holes closing up before he can get to them.
Nevertheless, Miller will have his work cut out for him in an offense that is still likely to lean pass-heavy, a move that will favor Kamara over the sophomore. Miller was never much of a pass catcher in college, with his highest season target share only being 5.1%.
There is really only one path to Miller having fantasy value this season outside of Kamara either getting hurt or being completely done, which, at least for his receiving role, is unlikely. Miller needs the primary goal-line role.
Since Mark Ingram left, the Saints have allowed Kamara to be the goal-line back. Now 29 years old, New Orleans would prefer Miller to emerge. Otherwise, we’re looking at the dreaded two-down back who doesn’t catch passes and doesn’t get goal-line carries. That is never someone we want in fantasy.