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    New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Prediction: It’s All Dependent on if Derek Carr Plays

    Here's our pick and prediction, along with analysis, for the New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers matchup in Week 9.

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    The New Orleans Saints will travel to take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.

    If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.

    New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 45) at Carolina Panthers

    It seems absolutely wild that a team that has lost six straight games and is 2-6 would be favored by 6.5 points on the road. The fact that is even the case tells you just how poor the Carolina Panthers have been this season.

    If you are confident that the Saints are getting Derek Carr back, then you can lay the points or tease this game below a field goal. The price here already partly assumes that he will be back, but it could move another couple of points once that looks more likely or is confirmed.

    Therefore, if you want to take advantage of a game where you can bet against the Panthers while laying less than a touchdown, now would be the time to do so. The Saints scored 47 points the last time these two met, and while they don’t have that ceiling now, they should still win.

    With the uncertainty over how close Carr will be to 100% and having seen Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener play quarterback, I would rather miss the opportunity than risk holding a ticket that has either of those laying nearly a touchdown. A teaser is the better play, but even that comes with risk if either of the young QBs is starting.

    The under may well be the best bet because even with Carr, this is still likely an offense that is capped at around 30 points. Carolina hasn’t scored more than 14 points with Bryce Young at quarterback and has only topped 20 points twice all year.

    Prediction: Saints 23, Panthers 14 (if Carr plays)
    Pick:
    Under 45

    Saints at Panthers Game Insights

    New Orleans Saints

    Team: New Orleans has lost six straight games, matching their longest skid of the 2000s (also: Weeks 5-11, 2005).

    QB: Derek Carr might return to a skeleton crew that doesn’t have the big play upside of the offense he left. Can he make it work? It’s possible – he’s completing a career-high 77.5% of his short passes this season.

    Offense: The Saints have scored 45 points in their past three games—they averaged 45.5 points per game during their 2-0 start this season.

    Defense: Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has created pressure on just 25% of opponent dropbacks (Weeks 1-5: 38.1%).

    Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has more targets (18) than rush attempts (17) over the past two weeks. After averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game in September, he didn’t reach 70 once in October.

    Betting: Since 2020, unders are 27-13 (67.5%) in Saint games played after Halloween.

    Betting: The Saints have been 1-6-1 ATS since the start of 2022 when they were favored on the road.

    Carolina Panthers

    Team: Carolina is technically the home team next week in Germany against the Giants – their next true road game doesn’t come until December 8 (Week 14 at Philadelphia).

    QB: Baby steps – Bryce Young threw a touchdown pass under pressure against the Broncos on Sunday, doubling his career total of such passes in the process.

    Offense: The Panthers are averaging 4.0 yards per play in Bryce Young’s starts this season (Andy Dalton: 5.3).

    Defense: Every team that has faced the Panthers this season has posted a passer rating north of 95 (last week against Denver was the fourth time this season they allowed a rate over 125).

    Fantasy: Chuba Hubbard ran for 56 yards in Denver on Sunday, 59 of which came after contact.

    Betting: The Panthers have failed to cover four straight at home, failing to cover by a total of 40.5 points during that stretch.

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