One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson projects to be a top-10 pick at his position once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals some of the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Wilson’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Russell Wilson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Fantasy football! Let’s ride! Okay, I’m sorry and promise not to do that again for at least two weeks. But it’s Russell Wilson, so it needed to be done. What also needed to be done was for Wilson to get out of Seattle, and he did just that thanks to a trade that sent him to the Denver Broncos and kicked off what was a bonkers offseason.
It’s challenging to find a more consistent QB in fantasy than Wilson. That was until last season. After finishing as a top-10 QB every year since 2013 while averaging 23.58 fantasy points, Wilson was the QB19 overall last season and the QB13 in per-game scoring (17.2).
Coming off back-to-back seasons of 4,000+ passing yards, Wilson had just 2,875 yards in 2021. His completion percentage dropped to 65.2% (his lowest since 2017), had 22 touchdowns (a five-year low), and just 178 rushing yards, setting a new career-worst and 335 yards less than the season prior.
Don’t worry, this is not a sign he is falling off a cliff. He sustained a “mallet finger” injury in Week 5 and missed the next three weeks. Wilson even admitted that he came back too soon, impacting his play on the field.
Wilson failed to throw for over 260 yards from Week 3 through the end of the year. That’s not happening in 2022 in an offense tailor-built to suit his playstyle. We’ve got a glimpse of what it looks like when Russ cooks. Now we get to see that over an entire season. I expect a massive bounceback in 2022, and in fantasy drafts, keep Wilson as one of my targets when waiting on the position.
How the Broncos’ depth chart impacts Russell Wilson’s fantasy projection for the season
While they don’t score fantasy points, they allow them to be scored. I’m talking about the hog mollies up front, the offensive line. Denver boasts a far superior offensive line. It’s almost shocking Wilson didn’t miss time (finger not included) and played as well as he did while being sacked on average 42.7 times a season (46 on a 17-game pace).
The fact he will have time to throw in an offense is great. But to do that in one that has ranked fourth in the NFL in rush rate over the last three seasons (52.5%) is even better.
While I will not call Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy better than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the group of pass catchers is vastly deeper, including KJ Hamler, Albert Okwuegbunam, Tyrie Cleveland, Brandon Johnson, and Greg Dulcich. Sutton is my guy this year that I am planting my flag on as my WR9, and in my bold predictions, said he has top-five upside in 2022.
Wilson’s also got what would consider the best 1-2 punch at RB in the NFL with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Add in a defense that will give the ball back to Wilson regularly, and it’s easy to not only be bullish on this team and their chances in the division, but also for Wilson in fantasy for 2022.
Wilson’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 80, Wilson is coming off the boards as the QB11 in 1QB formats at the moment, placing him around the middle of the seventh round in 12-team fantasy leagues. In Superflex drafts, Wilson doesn’t escape the first 20 picks on average.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Wilson is the QB8 and 84th overall ranked player. Like the consensus, I also have Wilson as my QB8, at 86th overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
For me, this is an easy one. Not only is Wilson not forcing you to go QB early, but he brings a similar level of upside. If you want to wait later and draft maybe Trey Lance or Matthew Stafford, that’s fine too. Lance has the wheels while Stafford has Sean McVay’s brain behind him. If I leave a draft with Wilson as my QB1, I feel my quarterback spot is locked down, and I don’t need to think about it again aside from Week 9 when Denver is on a bye.
