Week 9 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 9 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. IND)
Is Aaron Jones what Najee Harris has been for years? That is a reasonable floor with a capped ceiling and inconsistent inefficiency in an offense that hovers around the league average.
Jones accounted for every single Vikings RB carry in the Week 8 loss to the Rams, racking up over 20 touches for the third time in five games. That said, it was his third game this season without a 10-yard carry and fifth time in six weeks without a rushing touchdown.
- Weeks 1-3: 9.5% of carries have failed to gain yardage
- Since: 19.4% of carries have failed to gain yardage
Jones showed well in his team debut against the Giants, but since then, his boom/bust rate (percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards minus percentage of carries failing to gain yardage) in the seven weeks since is -8.9%.
- Harris (2021-23): -8.6% boom/bust rate
Jones has given us some peaks (three RB1 finishes) and valleys (two finishes outside of the top 25 at the position). I think we see a little more stability moving forward in the middle of those two outcomes. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and his versatility helps create a floor that lands him as a middling RB2, a ranking that I think will be on the high end of expectations as we come down the stretch of the fantasy regular season.
Alexander Mattison | LV (at CIN)
Alexander Mattison might be the lead man in Vegas, and this might be the worst run defense in terms of success rate, but are 3.2 yards per carry as a part of a struggling offense really the way you want your matchup to be decided?
Mattison is a low-end Flex play thanks to 16 targets over the past four games and bankable volume. However, his narrow range of outcomes isn’t appealing if you’re in the business of chasing upside.
Alvin Kamara | NO (at CAR)
Alvin Kamara has more targets (18) than rush attempts (17) over the past two weeks. After averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game in September, he didn’t reach 70 once in October.
All of the predictive trends are pointing in the wrong direction, and that’s concerning. Yet, this is #PantherWeek for the Saints, and that obligates you to bump everyone up a tier.
If Kamara takes advantage of this matchup, I wouldn’t blink twice about selling him to the highest bidder on Monday morning — potentially before you get your first cup of coffee.
Antonio Gibson | NE (at TEN)
Antonio Gibson has played under one-quarter of the snaps in half of New England’s games this season. With two of those coming over the past two weeks, he is comfortably off of fantasy radars in all formats.
Of course, like so many running backs in the NFL, Gibson is a single injury away from extended usage. But does that matter?
Over his past three games, the 26-year-old has produced 49% below fantasy expectations, the type of inefficiency that wipes him off of the rosterable handcuff tier.
Austin Ekeler | WAS (at NYG)
Ekeler has run about as hot as you could possibly hope this season. Brian Robinson Jr. got dinged up, and the veteran has multiple catches in every game this season, not to mention a 20+ yard gain in six of seven games.
He’s shown juice that we weren’t sure we’d ever see again. This offense as a whole is performing at levels that we thought we might see a few years into the Jayden Daniels experience, not a few weeks.
All of that has transpired, and Ekeler has one top-24 finish this season. You know what you’re getting from Ekeler (6-8 carries and 3-4 targets). That might be appealing in a deeper league, but with this game projected to be played in the low 40s, this isn’t a profile I’m targeting with only two teams on a bye if I can avoid it.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs. DAL)
Bijan Robinson caught a touchdown pass last week in which he was Kirk Cousins’ fourth read — that was encouraging for a few reasons.
The fact that Robinson stayed engaged and was able to catch his quarterback’s eye after that long was good to see, as was this offensive line holding up long enough for such a play to take place.
The Cowboys allow the most yards per RB target this season (8.5), a weakness that I suspect the Falcons to pick at routinely (Robinson’s pace: 66 receptions). Atlanta’s featured back is averaging 5.3 ypc over the past month. We can safely give him north of 15 touches, which means he’s a top-10 running back with a clear path to leading the position in scoring this week.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs. HOU)
Can’t anything in New York be simple? Early in the season, this backfield looked like a budding committee, but then it appeared that Breece Hall was poised to fill the role we assumed he would when we drafted this summer.
Allen’s snap shares:
- Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 34.3%
- Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings: 25.4%
- Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.6%
- Week 7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.1%
- Week 8 at New England Patriots: 33.3%
The seemingly random spike in the rookie’s usage was by design as Allen was on the field for half of their first-quarter offensive snaps. With the Jets averaging just 16.6 points per game during this five-game losing streak, this offensive pie simply isn’t big enough for a shared backfield.
For me, Allen remains a Tier 1 RB handcuff and nothing more.
Breece Hall | NYJ (vs. HOU)
Would I love to get Breece Hall past 16 carries (something he’s done just once this season)? Of course, but there’s enough explosion in his profile to pay off regardless, and we get an example every week of Aaron Rodgers trusting Hall down the field as a route runner (last week, we saw a chunk gain by way of DPI).
That role, to me, is that of a huge performance in waiting. It could happen this week on short rest against the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. I’m not calling for it, but fantasy managers should feel good about their RB1’s outlook this week and for the second half of the season.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at NYG)
For the first time this season, Brian Robinson Jr. failed to score and didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground. He’s the lead man in this backfield, but without a 20-yard run in five straight and just a single catch over his past three games, this fantasy profile is a little thinner than you might assume.
That’s more of a friendly warning than actionable advice. The Giants rank 28th in rush defense EPA and figure to allow the Commanders to be playing with a lead. This is a great bounce-back spot, and you should feel great about getting a piece of Washington’s offense.
Bucky Irving | TB (at KC)
As much as I like what we see from Bucky Irving on a weekly basis, Rachaad White continues to be just involved, and that’s a problem in a tough matchup like this.
The Chiefs own the highest success rate against running backs and have an offense that can control the tempo. My problem with the Bucs is that they have two backs that thrive as pass catchers. How are we supposed to project usage with confidence?
I have Irving (seven catches last week and 14 catches on 15 targets in October) as the favorite to lead Tampa Bay’s backfield in touches thanks to the edge in rushing efficiency, but this is a hot-hand situation that will be a headache moving forward.
Chase Brown | CIN (vs. LV)
The Raiders allow the most goal-to-go drives per game. Last week, Chase Brown pushed across a four-yard score, indicating that the valuable carries might well be his (nine red-zone touches over his past five games).
The concern, of course, is a lack of efficiency. Brown has 27 carries for 76 yards over the past two weeks, and if you remove a single one, his ypc average over that stretch tanks to 2.1.
I like the Bengals in this game, and if that’s going to prove accurate, Brown’s 14-16 touches will land him as a usable fantasy piece. With that being my stance, I have him ranked as my RB25 this week, ahead of players like J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams, two backs with slightly more stable roles.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs. NO)
We can worry about the Jonathon Brooks situation when we get there (if we get there). Chuba Hubbard has at least 17 touches in six straight games, and although Carolina’s offense doesn’t offer a ton of scoring chances, their bell cow continues to find a way to work his way into successful fantasy lineups so as long as the game stays even remotely competitive.
That should be the case against a Saints team that is trending very much in the wrong direction. Not only do the Saints own the worst goal-to-go defense in the NFL, but they’re allowing the fourth-most yards per carry to running backs and scores to the position at the fifth-highest rate(4.7% of carries).
I have no interest in jumping off Hubbard until I have a reason to, and nothing about this spot scares me.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (at ARI)
Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process, highlighted by a 56-yard score last week.
At first, I thought Swift’s success was tied to Caleb Williams’ development, but against Washington, he proved capable of producing even when the passing game was struggling (18 carries for 129 yards).
The fact that Swift can burn defenses in a variety of ways makes him a surefire fantasy starter in all formats. There are five running backs in the NFC North that you can start on a consistent basis — you’re lucky to have any of them!
Dalvin Cook | DAL (at ATL)
Dalvin Cook made his season debut last week and was hardly used in a game in which presumed RB1 Rico Dowdle was a late scratch (illness). Dowdle will be back today, though Cook still has a path to a handful of Carrie’s with Ezekiel Elliott being left in Dallas due to disciplinary reasons.
The veteran back will get some work and that makes him intriguing in deep leagues where any role owns value, but in standard sized leagues, Cook is not only off the starting radar, he doesn’t need to be rostered.
David Montgomery | DET (at GB)
The Lions got a short field for their second position last week — two handoffs to David Montgomery later, and they had seven points on the board. Easy game.
At various points this season, I’ve questioned the veteran’s versatility, in part to him failing to catch multiple passes in the majority of games this season. Montgomery, clearly, read about those concerns and decided to throw for a score last week. What can’t this offense do?
The Packers allow the third-most yards per carry after contact to RBs this season, giving me all the confidence in the world that Monty will cash in the opportunities he gets inside the 10-yard line.
The volume is never going to overwhelm, but the value of those touches is what matters. And given how successful Detroit’s offense is right now, Montgomery’s value is as safe as running backs averaging 6-8 more touches than him.
Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. DEN)
Isn’t it crazy what happens when you more than triple the yards per carry before contact for one of the game’s most physical runners?
Derrick Henry’s production over expectation is sitting at a career high, and his gain rate (86.2%) is pacing for his best since 2018.
From a spreadsheet standpoint, Henry looks like a fade. He’s hardly involved in the passing game (one multi-catch effort this season), and big plays continue to drive his rushing numbers. But what evidence do we have that any defense can stop Henry?
Trick question. We have no such evidence.
Henry was held to 11 carries last week due to how the game scripted out, and it still didn’t matter (73 yards and a score). Denver owns a top-10 run defense in every metric I value, and I couldn’t care less. Henry might be the most matchup-proof player in fantasy sports right now, and if you had the foresight to draft him, you’re positioned well to make a deep run this winter.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. WAS)
This is no longer to be considered a committee situation. This is Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s world, and Devin Singletary is just living in it. Over the past two weeks, the rookie has held a 63.1% – 29.5% snap edge, but that sort of thing can be impacted by a million factors.
What most impacts that factor from a predictive standpoint is production, and there simply is no way around it — Tracy is “the guy.” Across those two weeks, he’s producing 36.1% over expectation (Singletary: -17.2%) and averaging 27% more PPR points per touch than the preseason starter.
If you need to cut ties, you have my stamp of approval.
De’Von Achane | MIA (at BUF)
De’Von Achane looked like the fantasy rockstar he was as a rookie last week with Tagovailoa back (16 touches for 147 yards and a touchdown). And for as long as his starting QB is under center, I’m not sure why we’d expect Achane to be anything other than a top-10 player.
The Bills are likely to provide some resistance (seventh-fewest yards allowed to running backs after contact this season), but we saw Achane’s versatility on full display last week, which puts him in position to return solid RB1 numbers on Sunday across all formats.
You took it on the chin during Tagovailoa’s absence; it’s time for your loyalty to be rewarded handsomely.
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (at ATL)
Note: Ezekiel Elliott did not travel with the team due to disciplinary reasons. He will not be playing on Sunday.
Elliott held a 42.4% to 28.8% snap edge over Dalvin Cook (six catches for 12 yards in Week 8) last week. Maybe that hints that he is the slight percentage play moving forward should Rico Dowdle miss time. But that’s the lesser of two evils and would more than likely result in a situation where there isn’t a Dallas Cowboy ranked inside my top 30 at the position.
In playing, or even rostering, the veteran running back, you’re chasing a score. Elliott is averaging a red-zone touch per game, but with his yards per carry before contact set to decline for a third consecutive season, it’s clear that Father Time has taken his pound of flesh from the one-time elite fantasy asset.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at GB)
What the Lions are doing with their two-back system is astounding. It’s been so consistent, I don’t know how you bet against it at this point.
Jahmyr Gibbs took a carry 70 yards to the house last week against the Titans and has a 20-yard touch in six straight contests. The volume is never going to reflect that of a prototypical top-10 back, but rules are made to be broken. Gibbs’ skill set, along with the numerous ways this offense can punish defenses, makes him a safe option, even if it’s only 15 touches a game.
James Conner | ARI (vs. CHI)
James Conner has multiple receptions in four straight games and at least 18 carries in four of his past five, with the lone exception being a blowout at the hands of the Packers.
Without much concern of a game script like that, I think we can safely pencil in the veteran back for north of 15 touches. There are a few running backs in tough spots this week (J.K. Dobbins, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Javonte Williams among them) — give me Conner of that group.
James Cook | BUF (vs. MIA)
James Cook has finished four weeks this season as an RB1, and with the Dolphins allowing a touchdown on a league-high 6.1% of running back carries, a fifth is very much within the range of possible outcomes.
Buffalo’s bell cow scored twice in the first meeting while averaging 7.1 yards per carry, a level of efficiency that likely earns him a heavy workload this weekend. On top of the touchdown rate, this Miami defense allows the most yards per carry after contact to running backs, giving the Bills every opportunity to physically dominate this contest.
Cook has earned at least three targets in four games this season, giving him a secondary path to production should the running lanes be plugged and/or Allen vultures the valuable touches.
Javonte Williams | DEN (at BAL)
Williams doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 20 yards this season and built up goodwill from fantasy managers thanks to two strong showings in great spots. Outside of that, have we really been all that impressed?
The fact that he caught 15 passes across four October games is a value-stabilizer, and that’s enough to keep him in the RB2 conversation, but I’m looking for other options with him facing the second-best run defense in the league.
Not only is the Ravens’ front its strength, but Baltimore’s offense has the ability to sustain long drives. I’d be shocked if Williams got the 17 touches that have proven to be something of a floor for him recently, and there’s not enough scoring equity to feel good about with an implied total hovering around 18 points.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (at BUF)
The explosive rookie has caught the eye of Dolphin fans, and with their season trending in the wrong direction, there is a groundswell to get him more involved. That’s all fine and dandy, but it would take a drastic change in philosophy from this coaching staff to make him roster-worthy.
- 33.3%
- 8.8%
- 4.7%
Those are Wright’s snap shares in Weeks 6-8, respectively, since Raheem Mostert returned to the field. Keep Wright’s name in the back of your mind should an injury occur — or even for 2025. But in terms of current fantasy value, there is none to speak of.
Jerome Ford | CLE (vs. LAC)
Ford’s hold on the lead job was fading as the days came off the calendar in September, and that was before Nick Chubb made his season debut. A hamstring injury has cost the 25-year-old consecutive games, and while he may return this week, it shouldn’t matter in most situations.
Despite the success of Week 8, this offense is still volatile, and so is Ford’s running style. I’d be interested if he held the lead role on a run-centric offense like the Chargers, but in this situation, as it stands, Ford (26% of his career carries have failed to gain yardage) doesn’t need to be rostered.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at CLE)
I aim to inform, and I found this list ultra-interesting in our quest to predict the future. Here are the top seven producers at the running back position in percentage of points relative to expectations since Week 3:
1. Jahymr Gibbs: +71.6%
2. Derrick Henry: +61.6%
3. James Cook: +39.4%
4. Joe Mixon: +31.1%
5. Bijan Robinson: +27.9%
6. Kenneth Walker III: +23.6%
7. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 22.8%
And the bottom seven over that stretch:
26. Zack Moss: -12.3%
27. Alexander Mattison: -12.6%
28. Breece Hall: -13.8%
29. Jordan Mason: -14%
30. Alvin Kamara: -15.6%
31. Javonte Williams: -16.2%
32. J.K. Dobbins: -17.5%
Dobbins’ season numbers still look fine, but those are largely the result of those two monster weeks to open the season (122.1% over expectation). This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers.
Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score in Week 8, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in the percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
The Ravens were able to run against the Browns last season — because they are the Ravens. The two weeks before, Cleveland was the proud owner of the second-best run defense by success rate, a trend that is more than enough to have me second-guessing Dobbins’ stock this weekend.
Dobbins sits at No. 25 in my current running back rankings, as low as I can reasonably put a featured back.
Joe Mixon | HOU (at NYJ)
The veteran running back has cleared 23 PPR points in four of five games this season, a run that includes all three since turning from injury (all with Nico Collins on IR). He’s also earned at least three targets in every game, a role that seems like a lock to remain given the season-ending injury to Stefon Diggs.
Do I worry about a running back with this much usage on his NFL résumé taking 25+ touches consistently? I do, but we are talking about Week 9; in that scope, I’m plenty comfortable in using him as an RB1 against the 19th-ranked rush defense by EPA.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (at MIN)
Some players are eased back from injury, and others are Jonathan Taylor, as he was responsible for 100% of Indianapolis’ running back carries last week in the loss to the Texans. If they aren’t nervous about his health, why should we be?
There are more than a few reasons why this Minnesota boat has taken on water over the past two weeks, but their inability to stop RB1s is certainly a part of it:
- Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs: 19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns
- Week 8, Kyren Williams: 28 touches for 106 yards and one touchdown
Taylor’s role is as favorable as any in the league, and with Anthony Richardson benched, there are next to no threats to Taylor’s role inside the five-yard line. Sign me up for Taylor as a top-five running back the rest of the way.
Jonathon Brooks | CAR (vs. NO)
Brooks is practicing and nearing his NFL debut, but there’s no need for you to try to get ahead of this situation. Chuba Hubbard is running well, and with this team in no position to make a run, they are likely to take a conservative approach with their second-round pick.
He should be rostered across the board, but he won’t rank as a top-30 running back for me until we see him play and be used in a significant way — I’m fine with being a week late rather than a week early.
Josh Jacobs | GB (vs. DET)
Jacobs has scored in three of his past four games after four scoreless efforts to open his Packers career and has finished each of those three weeks as a top-15 performer at the position.
With 18 carries or four catches in five straight games, Jacobs’ role is on the short list of the most favorable in the sport. The Lions have defended receivers well this season (fifth-lowest opponent passer rating when going that direction), and that gives this offense an example they don’t need to feature their bellcow.
In the most important game of Week 9, Jacobs reaching 20 touches for the fifth time this season wouldn’t shock me in the least. He’s currently sitting as my RB10, and that might be closer to his floor than anything. Start him with confidence — this week and every week moving forward.
Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. TB)
Hunt has been worthy of our trust in three straight weeks, and unless this offense makes a U-turn, I’d expect that to continue against the fifth-worst yards-per-carry run defense in the league.
My lone complaint is the target rate. Hunt is being handed the ball 12 times for every target, a rate I’d like to see shrink with time. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins might make that something of a pipedream. Without the plus grade in the versatility department, Hunt will struggle to break into my top 12, but he’s a pretty clear start that you can feel good about right now.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs. LAR)
Walker is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season — he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games since his return from injury.
If the pass-catching floor is here to stay, how much different is he really than Saquon Barkley? That may sound aggressive, but is he not also an explosive back who is in a scoring position every time he touches the ball?
The Rams are allowing the second-most yards per pass when running backs are targets this season, a deficiency that gives Walker a chance to sustain his status as an elite fantasy option. Given the price you paid on draft day, Walker could end up being on the list for MVP in our game this season, and I expect him to show why in this spot — he’s my RB3.
Kyren Williams | LAR (at SEA)
I’m not sure what the more mind-boggling stat is. The fact that Williams has scored in 10 straight games or that just one of his 158 touches has gained more than 17 yards.
I think there’s certainly risk in Williams’ profile (3.8 yards per carry is underwhelming, and an 86.4% catch rate isn’t likely to sustain), with the Rams welcoming back their high-volume receivers who project to soak up plenty of usage in scoring situations. Yet, that results in a minor downtick in rest-of-season value, not an actionable change that will impact your lineup setting this week or any moving forward.
Williams hasn’t finished a week worse than RB21 in nearly 400 days, a run that has seen him produce RB1 numbers in 69.2% of contests. I don’t hate the idea of moving him at a Tier 1 price tag if your roster needs help elsewhere (road games against the 49ers and Jets in Weeks 15-16), though I wouldn’t at all force it as a role like this is rare — even if the metrics raise some minor red flags.
Nick Chubb | CLE (vs. LAC)
Chubb was on the field for 35.1% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps in his return to action in Week 7, a rate that we saw spike to 60.1% in the win over the Ravens a week later.
It’s great to see the role trending in the right direction, but don’t mistake that as an excuse to lock him into your lineups with vintage Chubb expectations.
In his two games this season, Chubb is averaging just 0.1 yards per carry before contact this season, a tough situation for anyone to produce behind, let alone a running back coming off of a devastating knee injury.
Whether that number is the result of poor Cleveland blocking, hesitation on Chubb’s part, or a combination of both, it doesn’t really matter. In those games, without room to gather momentum, his ypc after contact is down 32.7% from his career rate.
Chubb could be an asset when you need him most (Bengals and Dolphins in Weeks 16-17), we just aren’t there yet — not against the Chargers’ defense that is allowing a league-low 1.7 red-zone trips per game.
Rachaad White | TB (at KC)
White has been a top-20 running back in consecutive weeks, though he is walking a fine line after losing a fumble on his second carry last week (only four rush attempts the rest of the way).
Week 7 snap shares:
- Rachaad White: 47.4%
- Bucky Irving: 35.9%
- Sean Tucker: 19.2%
Week 8 snap shares:
- White: 55.6%
- Irving: 41.7%
- Tucker: 11.1%
White’s versatility remains intoxicating because of how quickly the fantasy points can add up. I still prefer Irving because I think he offers similar juice and projects for more touches, but both are reasonable Flex options in a game where Tampa Bay will try to win the time-of-possession battle by way of conservative play-calling.
Raheem Mostert | MIA (at BUF)
Mostert played 33.8% of Miami’s snaps in Week 7 and saw that rate increase to 46.9% last week, a game in which he punched in a score on Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action.
What we saw last week is about what I think we can expect moving forward: 9-12 touches with a reasonable amount of scoring equity. That’s not the profile of a must-start option, but with injuries and byes to consider, a role like that can find its way into your Flex spot.
The Bills are the sixth-best red-zone defense, and that has me more out than in on Mostert. I’d rather go to the other sideline and start Keon Coleman if pressed for a Flex decision.
Ray Davis | BUF (vs. MIA)
The Week 6 explosion against the Jets (152 yards and a touchdown) was fun and gave us clarity when it comes to the proper way to handcuff James Cook, but with just 12 touches total over the past two weeks in two blowouts, he’s not a stand-alone option.
With the Bills trading for Amari Cooper, it sure seems like they are gearing up to put the weight of this season on the shoulders of Josh Allen, and if that’s going to be the case, asking the 220-pound Davis to handle goal-line duties becomes even less likely.
Cook is a bona fide starter and Davis is an insurance policy that is a viable RB2 if pressed into the starting role.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at TEN)
A hard-nosed, three-yard score was good to see last week, and with multiple receptions in six of seven games, Stevenson’s role is what you’re investing in more than anything.
Am I looking to bet on this offense? Of course not, but touches are gold this time of year, and Stevenson has at least 16 of them in five of seven contests. He’s my RB28 this week, a ranking that will improve by a few spots should Drake Maye be ruled active.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (at ATL)
Dowdle was a late scratch on “Sunday Night Football” due to an illness and that left Dallas with an elite 2020 backfield.
The problem? It’s 2024.
The Ezekiel Elliott/Dalvin Cook duo ran for 46 yards on 16 carries and looked about as good as those numbers would suggest. Dowdle out-carried Elliott 20-6 in his last fully healthy game (Cook was inactive), establishing himself as the man atop this depth chart.
Of course, reasonable minds can disagree if that role is meaningful for fantasy football purposes. Dallas ranks eighth in pass rate over expectation, and with the Falcons ranked second-best in terms of yards per running back target, there aren’t many parts of this matchup that I like.
Dowdle’s versatility and relative youth make him my favorite from this backfield, but that doesn’t mean he’s a must-start. I have the fifth-year back ranked as a middling Flex play, ranking in the same tier as RB2s on their own rosters like Austin Ekeler, Raheem Mostert, and his opponent this week in Tyler Allgeier.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. JAX)
With consecutive 100-yard games and four for the season, Barkley has more than proven worthy of the Eagles, and fantasy managers, targeting him this offseason. We haven’t seen the versatility flashed much lately (20 total receiving yards over his past three games), and the Tush Push factor is annoying, but Barkley is as explosive as any back in the game and there’s no reason to think he’s not an elite option moving forward.
The Jaguars own the third-worst goal-to-go defense – the concern isn’t if this team will finish their drives with six points but a question of who gets those carries. Annoying? Yes. Does it impact your redraft decision-making? Not even a little.
Tank Bigsby | JAX (at PHI)
Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help — in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact. Even with those limitations, he’s cleared 75 rushing yards in four of his past five games, establishing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville.
I don’t love him in this spot, but the lead role is enough to keep him in most lineups. The Eagles are the sixth-best red-zone defense and allow rushing touchdowns to opposing backs at the third-lowest rate. Bigsby is what he is — a lead back who lacks versatility in a shaky offense.
Tony Pollard | TEN (vs. NE)
Pollard isn’t exciting, but his usage lands him as an RB2 in my rankings every week, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. He’s carried the ball at least 16 times in six of seven games and brought in multiple passes in every game this season, versatility that makes him immune to variable game scripts.
The Patriots own the second-worst goal-to-go defense and the fourth-highest RB rush touchdown rate — flaws that give Pollard enough of a ceiling to play him with confidence this weekend.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at PHI)
Etienne is battling a hamstring injury, but the greater drain on his fantasy potential is the play of Tank Bigsby. The second-year back has established himself as the go-to option in this backfield, and it’s hard to see that changing in the short term.
This season, Etienne’s production is 17.2% below expectation, a drastic dip from his +8.5% rate a season ago. His last 11 carries have picked up just 19 yards, highlighting a disturbing trend in the process.
This year, Etienne’s yards per carry before contact is up 84.6% from last season, but his yards per carry after contact are down 15.3%. Those two numbers aren’t supposed to work in contrast like that — you’d expect a running back who is getting downhill to be more difficult to tackle, but that hasn’t been the case here. To me, this suggests a change in running style and/or a lack of explosion.
It’s discouraging no matter how you explain it. Etienne should remain rostered due to his proximity to a lead role, but there’s no reason for him to be started in any format right now.
Trey Benson | ARI (at NYG)
The rookie has seen his snap share decline in three straight games and hasn’t had a red-zone touch since the second week of the season. James Conner has over 1,500 touches on his NFL résumé and has missed multiple games in every season of his career — Benson is a reasonable stash for those with the luxury to do so, but if I’m in the thick of a playoff hunt and need weekly outs, moving on from Benson is plenty acceptable.
Trey Sermon | IND (at MIN)
After playing the majority of snaps in three straight games, Sermon saw his snap share crater to 14.3% in Sunday’s loss against the Texans and wasn’t handed the ball a single time.
Tyler Goodson out-performed him in a pretty significant way when Jonathan Taylor was on the shelf, making Sermon a roster casualty in all fantasy formats. This roster spot is better used on an all-or-nothing receiver like Gabe Davis or a running back like Jaylen Wright who owns more per-carry upside should he be given the opportunity.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs. NE)
A hamstring injury has forced Spears out of consecutive games; while he is thought to be trending in a positive direction, does it matter?
Titans running backs are averaging the fewest yards per carry before contact this season (32.9% less than any other team), something that I find unlikely to change given how little pressure this passing game puts on opposing defenses.
He checks in as a middling Flex assuming that he is fine and Tony Pollard (foot) is inactive — he’s a volume bet in that situation and nothing more. Should both Spears and Pollard sit, Julius Chestnut is the add in desperate situations, but this offensive environment doesn’t make a third-string running back a must play, even if he profiles for a bellcow role.
Spears is an interesting buy in dynasty formats due to a lack of early career usage, but with just one game of more than eight touches in 2024, he’s not someone redraft managers need to keep rostered.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs. DAL)
Allgeier continues to be used just enough to be annoying but not enough to justify playing by himself.
Allgeier carried the ball 12 times against Tampa Bay last week for just 33 yards, usage that has been about what we’ve come to expect. In a game where points shouldn’t be tough to come by, you might be able to get away with him in deep formats or as a DFS pivot off of Bijan Robinson. In that instance, you’re chasing a score and there aren’t many better matchups for that — Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 5.5% of running back carries, the third-highest rate in the league.
Allgeier remains atop my handcuff rankings and is a must-roster option as a result, even if playing him with confidence is unlikely to occur as long as Robinson is active.
Tyler Goodson | IND (at MIN)
Goodson has passed Trey Sermon as the handcuff in which I am most interested in Indy, but he didn’t get his hands on the ball a single time last week against the Texans with Jonathan Taylor back in the mix. He’s a luxury stash in the deepest of formats at best – you’re more than welcome to cut ties after trying to extract value from this backfield with Taylor on the shelf.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. WAS)
If there was any question as to who sits atop this depth chart, it’s gone now. Long gone.
Tracy piled up 145 rushing yards in Week 8, the most by a rookie drafted in the fifth round or later since Phillip Lindsay (Week 13, 2018, at Bengals: 157 rush yards). He was likely to take over this backfield with time given that the team views him as a part of their future, but it seems that he has forced their hand — I’m now giving him two-thirds of the running back touches in New York and I feel good about it.
The rookie is an RB2 for me this week assuming health (concussion protocol, a situation to monitor as lineup lock approaches), facing the worst per-carry defense in the NFL (second most yards per carry allowed before contact and sixth worst in success rate). The limitations of this offense will result in some ranking fluctuation, but in this matchup, I’m starting him without reservation.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs. LAR)
Charbonnet hasn’t had more than eight touches in a game since the middle of September, and with Kenneth Walker III playing at potentially the highest level of his career, it’s tough to see Charbonnet’s backup role extending in any sort of meaningful way.
We are talking about a strong handcuff, and that’s valuable, but he’s not a threat to hold stand-alone value.
Zack Moss | CIN (vs. LV)
Late-week injury downgrades are never what you want to see. On Friday, Zack Moss (neck) was added to the Cincinnati Bengals’ injury report for the first time this week. Given that he didn’t pop up until the end of the week, Moss was likely injured during practice.
He’s considered doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Raiders. Assuming Moss can’t go, fellow Bengals RB Chase Brown should receive a full workload in Week 9. Trayveon Williams is the only other back on Cincinnati’s active roster, and he hasn’t played an offensive snap this season.
Las Vegas represents a decent fantasy matchup for Brown. The Raiders’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in EPA per rush and rushing success rate but has given up the 10st-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. However, Brown likely won’t have left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (doubtful; knee/fibula) blocking for him on Sunday.