Those still in Week 17 fantasy football championships get a boost that others didn’t have last week with the return of Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones. With Jones set to play this week against the Atlanta Falcons, what is Ronald Jones’ outlook in fantasy for Week 17, and should he see your starting lineups?
Ronald Jones has been activated ahead of the Week 17 game with Atlanta
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have activated running back Ronald Jones from the NFL’s reserve list. A move that clears him for a possible return to action in Sunday’s regular season finale against Atlanta.
Jones was initially placed on that list on December 16th and has missed the Buccaneers’ last two games. He can rejoin the team on the practice field on Wednesday.
Almost forgotten due to his absence is that Ronald Jones is still working his way back from injury.
Jones is currently dealing with a surgically-repaired finger
Being placed on the reserve list was merely adding insult to injury for Ronald Jones and his fantasy managers. During the team’s Week 14 win over the Minnesota Vikings, Jones suffered a broken finger. Following the game, he had pins inserted to stabilize the finger — the same scenario to fellow Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin, who had his pins removed over the team’s bye week.
When asked on Monday if Ronald Jones was progressing, head coach Bruce Arians wasn’t exactly helpful with his response, though he was brutally honest.
“Your guess is as good as mine still,” Arians said Monday regarding Jones’ timetable for return. “I haven’t been able to talk to him. Hopefully, he’s clearing the virus [protocols] and we can get him into the building to look at him and see if he can play with [his injury]. I’ve got my fingers crossed that we can get him a bunch of game action this week, but I’m not going to risk it [if he is] not able to protect himself.”
If Jones can play, he can cap off a record-setting year in style against a divisional rival.
Jones has been the best fantasy running back all year for Tampa Bay
Remember a few short months ago where people were arguing that Ke’Shawn Vaughn, the rookie from Vanderbilt, was going to be a star in the NFL and take the lead role? Doesn’t that seem like a decade ago? Well, a running back had success for Tampa Bay, but not the Vaughn part, not even close, as Ronald Jones was the clear RB1 for the Buccaneers.
Jones leads the team with 900 yards on the ground and is within striking range of his first 1,000-yard season. This would also be the first for the team since Doug Martin did it back in 2015.
Jones by the numbers
Jones has averaged a substantial 5.0 yards per carry on his 180 rushing attempts and found the end zone six times in 13 games. Of the 20 running backs who have seen 160 carries or more, Jones is fifth in yards per attempt. However, he has something that few other people in the history of the NFL have, a 98-yard rushing touchdown.
Jones broke off the long score in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers. In doing so, he joined Tony Dorsett (1982), Derrick Henry (2018), and Ahman Green (2003) as the only players to have a rushing TD of 98 yards or more. Dorsett and Henry both have 99-yard scores.
It points to his explosive nature as a player. Of his 900 yards, 28.2% came on seven rushes for 254 yards. Those seven rushes are the times where Jones had a rush over 15 yards. Of the 22 players with at least 150 carries, Jones is ninth in percentage of yards from breakaway runs.
The downside for Ronald Jones is his passing involvement
It’s not down to chance he hasn’t had the opportunity. The Buccaneers chose not to scheme his involvement in the passing game this season. Jones has struggled out of the backfield as a receiver.
Of the 42 times Jones has been targeted, he has only caught 28 passes for 165 yards and one TD. His 66.7% catch rate is one of the lowest in the NFL for an RB. His 11.6% drop rate is a major cause for concern. Even though he has seen just 45 targets, he is tied for 10th in the NFL in drops.
Whenever Ronald Jones sees a target come his way, fantasy managers hold their breath, hoping he hauls it in, or it could be another quarter until he is back on the field.
What should be expected out of Ronald Jones for fantasy in Week 17?
Now we get to the issue of playing fantasy in Week 17. During last week’s decimation of the Detroit Lions, the Buccaneers clinched their playoff berth. In doing so, this week can only affect seeding. They can’t get the first-round bye, so there isn’t a lot on the line for them as an organization.
Also, the Falcons are not a great team to be facing if you need a great RB performance with a season on the line.
The matchup vs. the Falcons run defense
The Falcons are ninth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs at 20.85 per game. When you look at the distribution, it’s even worse for Ronald Jones. Of the team’s total fantasy points allowed, 58.5% comes via the pass, second-most in the NFL. This is also Jones’ biggest weakness. On the ground, the Falcons give up the second-fewest yards per game at 74.21. They are also 31st in rushing TDs allowed (seven), with one every 39.3 attempts (sixth).
If he does play this week, you are looking at a likely split anyway. Vaughn, Jones, and even LeSean McCoy could all see work. If the Buccaneers are going to have a long run in the playoffs, they need to get healthy. Resting Jones in a meaningless game could be part of the plan.
If I could, I would likely sit Ronald Jones in fantasy for Week 17. Yes, he has put up solid weeks, but there are too many variables working against him. The playoff picture, his health, and the matchup lean me to wanting to stay away. If you play him, he is a low-end RB2, but the ceiling isn’t that exciting. If the Buccaneers get up quickly, it’s easy to see the starters get pulled. That is the risk of nearly every team with a spot already clinched, unfortunately.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.
