Robert Woods’ fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Possibly the most underrated WR in all of fantasy football and the NFL, Robert Woods enters the 2021 season with his highest fantasy outlook to date. Coming off three consecutive WR2-or-better seasons, should you consider drafting Woods at his current ADP, and what is his fantasy outlook for the 2021 season?

Robert Woods’ fantasy outlook for 2021

Woods has been one of the more consistent fantasy players these last few years. Yet, even with his reliable production, he always goes under the radar and down the draft board. For whatever reason, Woods has been vastly underrated by the fantasy community after proving year in and year out that he can put up solid numbers and boost a starting lineup. Amazingly, it seems to be happening again, despite the substantial upgrade under center. 

Sure, there was a hangover when he got out of Buffalo, which is understandable. He was the WR60, WR45, WR61, and WR71 in those four years. After he went to the Rams, Woods has been lights out.

Woods has excelled with the Rams

Over the last three seasons, Woods has been the WR11, WR14, and WR13. Heck, you can even throw in 2017 in his inaugural season with the Rams, where he was WR19 in points per game (13.6). Over his last three years, Woods has averaged 132.7 targets, 88.7 receptions, 1,096.3 yards, and 4.7 TDs. Additionally, he’s generated 142.3 rushing yards and 1.3 scores on the ground. 

Woods averaged 15.9 ppg while missing just one game and playing on 92% of snaps. Furthermore, he recorded 23% of the total targets and 36% of the receiver target share. There is also the consistency side to factor in, as Woods has posted single-digit fantasy performances in just 13 of 47 games (27.6%). He is also one of just 10 receivers with over 3,200 receiving yards over the last three seasons.

And most of all, Woods did all of this with Jared Goff under center. Goff was swapped out for Matthew Stafford, who has one of the best arms in the game. That’s a big reason why I expect to see Woods’ aDOT (average depth of target) take a noticeable rise from a paltry 6.9 in 2020. While he is not the hot name of the summer, Woods has one of the safest fantasy outlooks for 2021 — I’m all in.

Fantasy projection

Since McVay took over in Los Angeles, the Rams are top five in the NFL in passing yards and top eight in passing attempts. When you add that the Rams are second in drives reaching the red zone over the last two years, scoring opportunities should not be an issue for anyone on the Rams. Touchdowns have been the only hangup on Woods’ career — every season he falls well below the expected touchdown rate for someone seeing 130-plus targets.

I expect the defense to keep the Rams in the majority of games which is fine. In neutral game scripts, the Rams attempted passes on 58% of their plays. But given they play in what should be the most challenging division in the NFL, there are still several chances for them to get into a shootout.

Who is the WR1 in Los Angeles?

There is the question of who is the WR1 between Woods and Cooper Kupp. These two have operated as a 1A-1B pairing, but is that a problem if we get that again? If you give the edge to anyone, it has to be Woods.

Looking at his time with the Rams, Woods has played around 40% of his snaps in the slot. However, he is the first option between the two to move outside, outpacing Kupp by around 20%. When you go from a QB that ranked 56th out of 63 quarterbacks in average throw depth (6.0) to Stafford at 15th (8.5), that’s a significant boost in potential points per target.

Add in the effect losing Cam Akers might have on the Rams’ game script, and Woods is set for a career-best year. Current projections have Woods slated for around 130 targets, 90 receptions, 1,150 yards, and 7 touchdowns in 2021. Moreover, he could add 120-130 rushing yards and another score on the ground. 

Robert Woods’ ADP

According to Sleeper, Woods is currently the WR17 with an ADP of 43.6 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increase in value, he falls to 65.6. Meanwhile, on Fleaflicker, he is going as the WR16 with an ADP of 43.3. On the high-stakes NFC platform, Woods is the WR13 with a 37.06 ADP.

Should you draft Woods at this ADP in 2021?

Despite the upgrade at QB and the years of sustained success, Woods is going within two picks of his ADP the previous two seasons. Somehow, on Sleeper, he is going not only later but also after Kupp (WR17). 

I think as a whole, the upper end of the WR2 range is about right for Woods on draft day. But as mentioned, his upside and outlook for fantasy outweigh his ADP. He will return value but don’t expect week-winning performances like you might find with a Justin Jefferson. Woods is as reliable as it gets, and you need that consistent floor to rely on when setting your lineups.