Robert Tonyan’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Fresh off one of the more efficient seasons in quite some time, should you draft Robert Tonyan with his fantasy outlook and ADP in 2021?

As one of the most efficient players last season, Green Bay Packers TE Robert Tonyan broke out for fantasy football in a big way. Now building off that momentum, what is the fantasy outlook for Tonyan, and is he a value at his current ADP?

Robert Tonyan’s fantasy outlook for 2021

As one of the favorite sleeper candidates at tight end last season, Tonyan had one of the more impressive seasons. Playing in 16 games, the third-year player caught 52 of 59 passes (88%) for 586 yards and a staggering 11 touchdowns. In fact, he tied for the league lead in TDs with Travis Kelce despite finishing 24th at the position in targets. In addition, Tonyan’s 11 touchdowns were more than his incomplete targets (7). He averaged a score on every 5.3 targets for an absurd 18.64 TD%.

For fantasy, Tonyan ended the season as the TE3 with 11 points per game. From Week 11 on, Tonyan recorded TE1 performances in six of seven games. It sure helps when you score a TD in each of those six games. But this also highlights the need for Tonyan to score given the lack of volume. In games without a TD, he was the TE28.

The Packers did select wide receiver Amari Rodgers in Round 3, but Tonyan will likely remain a focal point of the offense. With Aaron Rodgers returning, Tonyan is a low-end TE1 in 2021.

Fantasy projection

At least by this point, we have a relatively clear idea of what the Packers want to do under head coach Matt LaFleur. 

As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019) while passing on 56.2% of the plays (59.8% in 2019). We also know that tight ends have seen 18.1% and 19% of the targets. After back-to-back NFC Championship Game appearances, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Of course, it also helps when you have one of the all-time greats under center. All we can do for now is assume that Rodgers will play in 2021. Once we have a decision one way or another, we can redo the projections if needed.

For now, Tonyan is likely the second option in the passing game behind Davante Adams. That in itself comes with a significant chunk of value. Early projections for Tonyan have him around 65 targets with 50 receptions and close to 550 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Robert Tonyan’s ADP

According to Sleeper, Tonyan currently has an ADP of 97.5 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, on Fleaflicker, Tonyan is the TE9 with a 100.5 ADP.

Should you draft Tonyan in 2021 for fantasy?

I believe no other player has more value to lose should Rodgers sit out than Tonyan for fantasy. Adams is talented enough to command a massive target share (32%) and be a low-end WR1. Aaron Jones would still likely be a high-end RB2 at worst.

Tonyan, on the other hand, desperately needs Rodgers. Due to his lack of volume, Tonyan is dependent on touchdowns. And no one is better at generating those opportunities than Rodgers. 

Without Rodgers, Tonyan would go from a low-end TE1 down to a low-end TE2. If you choose to pass up the elite TEs in the draft this season, Tonyan brings quite a bit of upside in 2021. But as noted, it could all disappear very quickly.

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