Facebook Pixel

    Revisiting Bryce Young’s NFL Draft Evaluation and What Went Wrong in Carolina

    Bryce Young was the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft last April. Now, he's been benched by the Carolina Panthers. What went wrong with his evaluation?

    Published on

    Bryce Young was widely renowned as the first overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in the 2023 NFL Draft. Now, less than three weeks into his second season, his time as a starter may be over.

    What went wrong with Young’s evaluation? Was Young himself misevaluated? Was he ruined by lackluster support in Carolina? A bit of both?

    That’s what we’re here to discuss.

    What Went Wrong With Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers?

    The Panthers famously gave up a haul to move up to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They spent that pick on Young, and at the time, much of the consensus saw merit in the move.

    Of course, there were rumors that then-head coach Frank Reich had preferred Ohio State quarterback and eventual 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud instead — and that owner Dave Tepper had influenced the decision to take Young.

    Nevertheless, Young carried respect among evaluators as a prospect. At best, he was QB1 on various boards. At worst, he was QB3 behind Stroud and Anthony Richardson. That’s where he was on my board — and still, he carried a first-round grade.

    Young was the Heisman winner in 2022. And across his Alabama career, he put up massive numbers: 8,200 passing yards, 79 passing touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions in two years as a starter. Young was viewed as an exceptionally clean prospect with a particularly exciting creative instinct.

    Why did things go so wrong for Young early in his NFL career, and why is his outlook as a long-term starter already collapsing? Perhaps there’s a lesson to take away from all of this on the evaluative side, but the Panthers also didn’t do Young any favors.

    Warning Signs Were There With Young, but Panthers Exacerbated the Problem

    The warning signs were there with Young, the largest of which being size and non-elite raw talent. Those were factors that led me to rank him below Richardson in the battle for QB2.

    Young’s size was perhaps the most contentious issue regarding his profile throughout the 2023 NFL Draft cycle. Young was listed at 6’0″ and under 200 pounds on his school page at Alabama. Some worried he’d measure in as small as 5’9″, 185 pounds at the NFL Combine.

    Young would ultimately bring in a measurement of 5’10”, 204 pounds. Still, those numbers made him a massive outlier at the QB position.

    Young wasn’t set to be the only outlier at QB in the NFL. There’s also Kyler Murray, who’s thriving as a starter for the Arizona Cardinals this year. But at his outlier size, Murray has two things Young doesn’t: elite athleticism and elite arm talent.

    To be clear, Young is a good athlete with a decent arm — but neither trait stood out as even close to elite in the pre-draft process, the level that would allow Young to supersede unfavorable circumstances with his tools at the forefront.

    Young’s traits, compared to Richardson’s for example, were at the very opposite end of the spectrum. And comparing Young to another clean prospect like Stroud, even Stroud’s natural tools safely cleared those of the Alabama passer.

    That lack of elite raw talent made Young a far more dangerous outlier to bet on in relation to Murray. And if Young was ever going to succeed, he’d need the proper support early in his career. The Panthers failed there as well.

    Carolina’s midseason trade of Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers was perhaps more justifiable, but it took away a vital outlet for the offense. Then, in the very trade that landed Young, the Panthers sent off star wide receiver DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears.

    To make matters worse, the Panthers drafted Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette in back-to-back drafts, going away from the speed-oriented “quick separator” archetype that made Young so comfortable at Alabama — with players like Jameson Williams, John Metchie Jr., Jermaine Burton, and Isaiah Bond.

    Not only that, but the Panthers also relied on a past-his-prime Adam Thielen to siphon a large part of the offense’s receiving volume in 2023. And when signs of collapse showed early, they fired Young’s coach midway through his rookie season.

    It was a decision that came with reason, but it only brought more instability for a young QB. Then, as Dave Canales’ new scheme was being installed and new players were being added to the mix, Young only played one series in the 2024 preseason. A trivial qualm, perhaps — but it didn’t help matters with Young’s lack of rhythm in-season.

    To their credit, the Panthers did invest in the offensive line in the offseason, shoring up both guard spots. And while Ikem Ekwonu’s long-term development hasn’t been perfect, Carolina created a somewhat competent unit for Young to work behind.

    After Canales helped Baker Mayfield achieve a career-best season in 2023, there was hope that his scheme would be what Young needed to rebound. And the trade for Diontae Johnson was well-meaning, even if Johnson failed to click with a broken Young.

    Nevertheless, Young’s lack of reliable weaponry only put more pressure on the shoulders of a QB who didn’t have the elite raw talent to weather the storm. Young got rattled by the pace and physicality of the NFL, his pocket instincts eroded, and his poise and down-to-down consistency went with it.

    If anything, the failure of Young in Carolina indicates that it’s always better to invest in QB prospects with elite physical tools. Anything less, and you risk that QB bottoming out when holes appear in his supporting cast.

    MORE: Simulate the Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

    The relationship between a QB and his surrounding environment is always a symbiotic one. The Panthers failed to adequately support Young from start to finish — but Young also needed more support than most.

    Looking back, Young had a limiting mold at QB. And in light of his deteriorating arc, general managers may avoid those types of QBs in the future.