This has been an NFL season like no other. We can safely say it is the worst year for injuries in the history of the league. However, the show must go on. In the wake of several top RBs going down last week, how should fantasy football managers handle the waiver wire, trades, and the decision to cut players from their rosters?
Running Backs To Target off the Week 9 Waiver Wire
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets (32%)
Braelon Allen is not a must-roster player. Despite his touchdown against the Patriots, he has no standalone value. He carried the ball 12 times for just 32 yards. Do not expect that level of volume weekly.
Allen’s main appeal is his status as one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. If Breece Hall were to miss time, Allen would be a weekly RB2. That is worth rostering, especially for teams who are safely in the playoffs.
Aggressiveness Rating: 3.5
Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers (8%)
For the first month of the season, Jordan Mason averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game. That’s the value the 49ers’ RB1 role can provide.
Isaac Guerendo played most of the game on Sunday night with Mason departing due to injury. The rookie ran the ball 14 times for 85 yards and a touchdown. He scored 19.2 fantasy points. He was basically early-season Mason.
Isaac Guerendo helps seal the win for the @49ers! pic.twitter.com/f0md2DwKNM
— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2024
If Guerendo were the lead back for the 49ers, he would be a weekly RB1. The problem is two-fold.
First, we don’t know for sure that he’s overtaken Mason as the interim RB1. Second, Christian McCaffrey is expected back in Week 10.
Fantasy managers considering adding Guerendo right now must decide if his speculative handcuff value is worth hanging onto through the 49ers’ Week 9 bye.
Aggressiveness Rating: 3.5
Dalvin Cook, RB, Dallas Cowboys (23%)
Fantasy managers understandably want to chase the RB1 in the Cowboys’ offense. It should be a very good offense and bring touchdown upside. Fantasy managers also have a tendency to gravitate toward brand names. Dalvin Cook is a brand name.
With the Vikings, Cook was one of the best running backs in the NFL. You remember that. You hope can recapture it with the Cowboys. But, it’s 2024.
Last year, with the Jets, Cook was not one of the worst running backs in the NFL, he was the worst running back in the NFL. He had an EPA per rush -0.42. That ranked dead last among RBs by a very wide margin. For comparison, the second-worst RB was at -0.31. Cook’s success rate was also just 32.8%.
In previous years, we saw fantasy managers pick up Le’Veon Bell after the Ravens signed him or Adrian Peterson after the Seahawks signed him. It never works.
There’s a reason the Jets cut him. There’s a reason he spent two months on the Cowboys’ practice squad before they activated him out of pure desperation.
Cook showed exactly what he can offer an NFL team at age 29 in the year 2024: six carries for 12 yards. No matter the format, no matter the size, do not add Cook.
Aggressiveness Rating: The 23% of you who roster Cook should drop him.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (25%)
Ahead of the Cowboys’ Week 6 game against the Lions, Ezekiel Elliott spoke to coaches about his lack of touches. In response, he saw his highest snap share and carry count of the season since Week 1. The Cowboys went on to suffer one of their worst home losses in franchise history.
That loss certainly was not on Zeke. But it definitely prompted some changes behind the scenes. One such move was the activation of Dalvin Cook. That didn’t exactly work, as Cook ran the ball six times for 12 yards last week. But it does show that the team is looking for an alternative.
With Rico Dowdle a surprise inactive due to an illness, Zeke was the “lead” back. He ran the ball 10 times for 34 yards and a touchdown.
If Dowdle is out, Elliott would be a desperation touchdown-or-bust RB3. But Dowdle is unlikely to miss multiple games with an illness, and the Cowboys have a very tough stretch of run defenses upcoming. Do not add Elliott.
Aggressiveness Rating: 0.0
D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (5%)
Two weeks ago, D’Ernest Johnson saw 13 opportunities and turned them into 70 total yards and a respectable 10 fantasy points. Last week, Johnson touched the ball twice, scoring 3.3 fantasy points.
Travis Etienne Jr. practiced in a limited capacity all three days last week. He appeared close to playing, but the team opted to hold him out. Any semblance of fantasy value that Johnson has is tethered to Etienne’s continued absence, which is likely coming to an end this week.
Tank Bigsby is the only other Jaguars RB worth rostering. You do not need to add the journeyman satellite back.
Aggressiveness Rating: 0.0
Running Back To Target in Trades Ahead of Week 9
Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Hear me out on this one. Alexander Mattison is obviously not a supremely talented player. The Las Vegas Raiders are also not an offense you want to necessarily invest heavily in. But Mattison is the clear RB1 on the team. This is not a timeshare.
Alexander Mattison goes 31 yards for the @Raiders first TD of 2024!
📺: #LVvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/TZJ9X8R9Cm— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Mattison predictably struggled against the Kansas City Chiefs’ elite run defense, running the ball 14 times for 15 yards. Yet, that was still better than Zamir White’s two carries for negative one yard. But the Raiders didn’t look terrible overall and they have a really favorable rest of season schedule for running backs, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
Mattison is probably not expensive to acquire. If you can pay an RB3 price, you may get RB2 production when it really matters.
Running Back To Potentially Trade Away Ahead of Week 9
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the second consecutive week, Travis Etienne Jr. missed the Jacksonville Jaguars’ game with his hamstring strain. Tank Bigsby operated as the lead back, carrying the ball 18 times for 78 yards, while catching two passes for eight yards.
The volume is very encouraging, but head coach Doug Pederson has made it clear that Etienne is not going away once he returns. Bigsby is the better player, but he needs volume to not be entirely dependent on touchdowns. The rest-of-season schedule is worrisome.
#Jaguars Week 8 RB Usage
– Tank Bigsby: 66% snaps, 18 carries, 13 routes, 3 targets (87 yds)
– D'Ernest Johnson: 34% snaps, 1 carry, 16 routes, 2 targets (23 yds)Pass game usage is encouraging for Bigsby
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 27, 2024
The Jaguars get the Philadelphia Eagles, Vikings, and Lions before their Week 12 bye. Then they have the Texans, Tennessee Titans, and New York Jets. That’s a very difficult stretch of opponents. There are several good run defenses and potentially negative game scripts, which do not favor Bigsby. Cashing out now for a more reliable option is definitely something to explore.
Running Backs To Cut in Week 9
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers (92%)
Remember the first month of the season when Jordan Mason was averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game? He was an every-week must-start RB1…it seems so long ago.
Mason has not hit double-digit fantasy points since. He’s left two of his last four games early due to injury. And, in both instances, he got hurt, said he was fine, returned to the game, and then exited for good shortly thereafter.
Now, Mason has a twofold problem. First, Isaac Guerendo has looked better. There’s a nonzero chance that he would be the starter going forward. Second, Christian McCaffrey is set to return following the team’s Week 9 bye.
The RB1 for the San Francisco 49ers is a very valuable fantasy asset. If you want to hold Mason to see how things play out, that’s perfectly reasonable. Given how this season has gone, we should believe McCaffrey is back when we see him on the field.
But given that Mason is no longer the obvious and unquestioned handcuff to McCaffrey and the upcoming bye week, it may be time to say goodbye to Mason if you need the roster spot.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (70%)
It’s not that surprising to see fantasy managers wanting to cut Rico Dowdle. There’s something especially aggravating when a player who was completely healthy surprisingly misses a prime-time game, leaving managers with very limited alternatives.
But, please, do not drop Dowdle.
The Dallas Cowboys are not a good team this year, but they can still be good for fantasy. This defense has taken a significant step back from last year, resulting in the need for more offensive production.
Without Dowdle, the Cowboys were forced to roll out a backfield duo that was simultaneously one of the greatest and worst of all time. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook are two of the best running backs of the past decade. In 2024, you won’t see a lesser duo.
Dallas’ running game hit a nadir, with Elliott and Cook forced to be the only two in action. It’s very clearly over for both former greats. Zeke ran the ball 10 times for 34 yards, while Cook, who was undoubtedly the fresher of the two, managed 12 yards on six carries.
Dowdle was dealing with an unexpected illness but should be fine going forward. I expect his workload to increase, as he is the only NFL-caliber RB on the roster.
Again, do not cut Dowdle.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (77%)
I am placing Zack Moss on the “don’t cut yet” part of this column, but I don’t feel nearly as strongly about it as I do with Dowdle above.
After starting the season so strong, Moss has topped out at 8.2 fantasy points over his last four games. This is despite quality involvement as a receiver, catching at least three passes in three of his last four games.
The Bengals have a very good offense. You want pieces of it, and Moss actually outsnapped Chase Brown last week — largely because Moss is the more trusted pass blocker, and the Bengals faced negative game script.
Given Moss’ recent production, I understand if you’ve had enough. But there’s still ambiguity here. With nearly half a season left, I’m willing to wait a couple more weeks to see if Moss truly is droppable.