Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice established himself as Patrick Mahomes’ top receiver over the second half of last season. Entering Year 2, Rice faces much stiffer target competition but should also be a better player.
Should fantasy football managers target Rice this season?
Rashee Rice’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
I will be the first to admit I was not high on Rice as a draft prospect. He was an older prospect with a late breakout age and came out of college as a good but not great athlete.
What’s great about fantasy football is you’re allowed to embrace the possibility that you’re wrong.
Regardless of what you thought about Rice as a prospect, it doesn’t matter anymore. Or, at least, it matters far, far less.
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We’ve seen Rice play at the NFL level. Once a player gives us NFL data to work with, it should vastly outweigh anything he did in college. As a rookie, Rice proved he is good at football.
Rice was second to only Deebo Samuel (8.8) in yards after the catch per reception at 8.3. His 4.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 99th in the league. Nearly 70% of his 938 receiving yards came after the catch. Rice was also targeted on 27.4% of his routes run, 12th in the league.
From Weeks 12-17, Rice averaged 18.47 fantasy points per game. Those are mid-WR1 numbers.
If you’re fading Rice, it’s very easy to point to his strong close to the 2023 season as a product of circumstance. Behind Rice, the Chiefs had one of the worst wide receiver groups in NFL history. It’s no surprise they scored a mere scored just 37 offensive touchdowns, the lowest of the Patrick Mahomes era, by far.
Now, I’m not saying Rice is as good as this other guy. But I remember hearing the same things about Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021.
D’Andre Swift got hurt. T.J. Hockenson got hurt. St. Brown was the only guy left. Of course, he was targeted heavily.
Here’s the thing about targets: they’re earned. If Rice weren’t good, Mahomes wouldn’t have thrown him the ball, and Andy Reid would not have drawn up so many plays for Rice. He got the ball because he deserved to.
There is undoubtedly a massive increase in the quality of Rice’s target competition. Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are actual NFL-caliber starting receivers. Over the course of his entire career, Mahomes has only had two others: Tyreek Hill and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Now, there are three. It stands to reason Rice won’t be hyper-targeted.
While Rice was efficient as a rookie, he still only saw a 17.9% target share. That should easily push 25% this season.
Plus, the Chiefs’ offense is going to be better. I think that’s a guarantee. Rice scored seven times last season.
If Mahomes throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns like I think he will, it would be shocking if Rice didn’t improve upon his touchdown total.
Is Rice a Good Fantasy Pick?
With each passing day, Rice’s fantasy outlook improves. Based on Rice’s off-the-field transgressions, combined with what we know about the NFL’s personal conduct policy, a suspension is almost certainly coming.
However, given the lack of news from the league, it seems exceedingly unlikely it will happen this season.
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Rice’s ADP was originally in the seventh round, as fantasy managers presumed around a six-game suspension. Slowly, that has crept up. In recent mocks, I’ve seen Rice get into the fourth round.
It’s hard to say what the perception of Rice would be had he had a normal offseason with no outside concerns. It’s entirely possible he would be a third-round pick.
Although I have Rice ranked as my WR26, the fourth-round price tag is not unreasonable. Under the right conditions, I would take him there.
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