In the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ return to the Green Bay Packers, the team rescued former Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb from the Houston Texans. Cobb hasn’t produced elite statistics since his peak with Green Bay back in 2014, but the veteran WR still has a lot to offer the Packers’ offense.
Randall Cobb’s time in Houston didn’t go well
Some fans might not be excited by Cobb’s return. Based on the box score statistics, it didn’t seem as though he played at an elite level last year.
After having a difficult final season in Green Bay, Cobb joined the Dallas Cowboys as a free agent in 2019. He had one of his better statistical seasons in several years, totaling 828 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t in nearly so favorable a situation the next season, when he signed with a Texans team that would ultimately end the season 4-12. Across the 2020 season, he totaled 441 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those aren’t awful statistics for a No. 3 wide receiver, but they are a far cry from the numbers Cobb produced during his best seasons with the Packers.
Cobb’s advanced metrics tell a different story
Despite Cobb’s mediocre box score statistics last season, the advanced metrics suggest that he still played at a high level. To help prove this point, let’s turn to the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to evaluate players based on how much they contributed to the creation of their statistics, rather than the statistics themselves.
Last season, Cobb earned an OVM grade of 33.65. That grade ranked surprisingly competitively when compared to the NFL’s other wide receivers, ranking 23rd out of 98 qualifying players.
That isn’t quite as high as what he earned two seasons ago in Dallas, a grade of 35.42. Still, it was slightly better than the 33.46 he received during his last season with the Packers.
Based on those grades, we can see that, while he might not be the high-volume receiver he once was, Cobb can still contribute to the Packers’ offense at a high level.
Examining Cobb’s weekly grades
For a more in-depth examination of Cobb’s 2020 performance, let’s look at how he performed on a week-to-week basis. The chart below shows Cobb’s grades from each week of the 2020 season, marked by the black dots. For comparison, the league average regular-season OVM grade for wide receivers is represented by the yellow line.
As you can see, Cobb was rather inconsistent in 2020, and his grades varied dramatically. They ranged from a low of 17.24 in Week 4 to a high of 42.55 in Week 2. That level of variance obviously isn’t ideal, but the sample size is fairly small. Besides, Cobb performed above the average more often than not.
Examining the advanced metrics behind Randall Cobb’s grades
To understand why Cobb’s grades ranked so competitively, we need to examine the statistics that go into calculating them.
The primary factor involved in boosting Cobb’s grade was his catch percentage. At 79.17%, he caught a higher percentage of his targets than all but one other WR last season. Most of Cobb’s other metrics were average at best. However, being such a reliable player is an incredibly valuable asset for an offense.
Interestingly, the addition of Cobb gives the Packers’ offense two of the top three highest catch percentage players in the NFL last season. Robert Tonyan led all pass catchers with an absurd 88.14%.
Therefore, when Rodgers takes the snap and looks downfield next offseason, he’ll know that he has multiple players he can rely on.
Adding Randall Cobb is a win for both him and the Packers’ offense
Though it certainly wasn’t the biggest news from the last week for Green Bay, trading for Cobb seems to be a great move for both him and the Packers.
Cobb’s situation obviously improves dramatically. Not only does he join a championship contender, but Cobb gets to avoid playing for a Texans team that looks to be even worse than it was last season thanks to the likely absence of Deshaun Watson.
Meanwhile, Green Bay adds a solid veteran to a receiving corps that already has one of the NFL’s best receivers in Davante Adams, a breakout tight end in Tonyan, and several other high-quality targets.
Of course, the resolution of Rodgers’ holdout is undoubtedly the most important story of Green Bay’s offseason. However, Cobb’s addition could be crucial for a Packers’ team that seems set to make another championship run.
Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.
