The Los Angeles Rams will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Rams skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Matthew Stafford, QB
The Seahawks’ defense has largely been able to shut down inept passing games while proving vulnerable against even semi-stable ones, making them a legitimate target now that the Rams have their impact receivers back and get the benefit of the mini-bye after beating the Vikings last Thursday night.
Weeks 1 and 8 (with both star receivers):
- 19.7 fantasy points per game
- 71.1% complete
- 6% touchdown rate
- 77.9 pressured passer rating
Weeks 2-7 (without at least one of his star receivers):
- 8.1 fantasy points per game
- 65.8% complete
- 1.3% touchdown rate
- 39.9 pressured passer rating
It didn’t take long to see the impact health had on Stafford — 6.6 first-quarter fantasy points last week (three games prior: 5.7). Logic would state that the Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua tandem is near impossible to guard man-to-man, and that makes Stafford’s production against zone with his favorite targets in the mix all that more meaningful as that is the most likely direction defenses go.
Stafford’s EPA vs. zone:
- Week 8: 11.75
- Week 1: 0.81
- Week 3: -1.22
- Week 4: -2.23
- Week 5: -2.51
- Week 7: -3.29
- Week 2: -12.88
I could throw 1,000 more numbers at you, but I’ll spare you all of the nerding out. It goes without saying that Stafford’s limitations as a runner cap his ceiling (though he did look athletic in avoiding a sack before finding Kupp in the end zone last week). But with L.A.’s defense underwhelming, he’s going to be put in a position to produce big numbers from the pocket.
Stafford is flirting with QB1 status this week for me, and you could certainly justify playing him over preseason MVP front-runners C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes.
Kyren Williams, RB
I’m not sure what the more mind-boggling stat is. The fact that Williams has scored in 10 straight games or that just one of his 158 touches has gained more than 17 yards.
I think there’s certainly risk in Williams’ profile (3.8 yards per carry is underwhelming, and an 86.4% catch rate isn’t likely to sustain), with the Rams welcoming back their high-volume receivers who project to soak up plenty of usage in scoring situations. Yet, that results in a minor downtick in rest-of-season value, not an actionable change that will impact your lineup setting this week or any moving forward.
Williams hasn’t finished a week worse than RB21 in nearly 400 days, a run that has seen him produce RB1 numbers in 69.2% of contests. I don’t hate the idea of moving him at a Tier 1 price tag if your roster needs help elsewhere (road games against the 49ers and Jets in Weeks 15-16), though I wouldn’t at all force it as a role like this is rare — even if the metrics raise some minor red flags.
Cooper Kupp, WR
Eight targets. Touchdown.
Kupp returned last Thursday after missing more than a month and gave you his standard production. Did you know that, since the start of 2021, playoffs included, Tyreek Hill is the only player with more games of eight targets and a touchdown reception?
Being on a list with Hill is great without any context, but when you recall that Kupp has missed 17 games over that stretch, it’s downright silly. Nacua’s early usage was the primary takeaway for most, and that’s not wrong — though it shouldn’t be overlooked that Kupp saw an end-zone target on the first drive and capped the second one with a score as Stafford had an out-of-body scrambling moment.
Kupp can be trusted in all formats, which should go without saying. If you like Nacua? No worries.
When the Lions faced this Seahawks defense, both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams scored. Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle scored on three of their eight catches in this spot in Week 6, and just 10 days later, Kyle Pitts and Drake London accounted for the majority of Atlanta’s receptions against Seattle’s secondary.
Demarcus Robinson, WR
Robinson scoring twice on Thursday night was cute and saved you if you elected to play him with the thought that his banged-up returning teammates were going to be limited, but he’s on his way off of fantasy radars.
Despite a 90.3% snap share this season (83% in Week 8), Robinson hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since Week 1. That’s not going to change moving forward. His 17.9-yard aDOT, in theory, should come preloaded with upside. But with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua capable of winning their routes in such a hurry, why would Matthew Stafford give Robinson time to operate downfield?
Dropping a receiver after a two-touchdown game isn’t easy, but it’s viable should you be in a roster crunch. The play might be to look for a minor upgrade in a trade somewhere in your starting lineup — a deal that sees you upgrade your RB2 for your current RB2 and Robinson, or something along those lines. Refining your roster in ways like that can prove to be the difference between winning your title and coming up just short.
Puka Nacua, WR
It was a wild 12 hours ahead of kickoff last week, as Nacua’s status improved rapidly, and he was able to help the Rams potentially save their season with a 30-20 win over the Vikings.
The questions came flooding in once the whispers of his activity came out, a good reminder to stay fluid with your lineup at all times and to always reach out when drastic things like that happen.
Nacua went on to lead this team in catches (seven), targets (nine), and receiving yards (106), capitalizing on a game plan that was pretty clearly designed to make him comfortable (targeted on three of Matthew Stafford’s first throws). His two carries didn’t do much damage (five yards), but that’s not something the team schemes up if not fully confident in his health.
His stat line might not reflect limited reps. But after being on the field for 86.8% of offensive snaps as a rookie, his time spent on the field was certainly watched with a careful eye on Thursday:
Week 8 WR snap rates:
- Demarcus Robinson: 83.3%
- Cooper Kupp: 56.1%
- Puka Nacua: 53%
- Tyler Johnson: 40.9%
- Tutu Atwell: 13.6%
What the team is unable to control, however, is this man’s ability to open up windows for Stafford to throw him the ball. Nacua was targeted on 40.9% of his routes, an absurd rate that ranked as the second-best showing of his career and 12.9 percentage points ahead of his historic rookie season as a whole.
We could waste time in arguing which receiver is the alpha in this offense (I like the slot against Seattle and Kupp was there nearly three times as often as Nacua last week). But no matter your stance there, if you have one of them, you’re plugging him in with the utmost confidence in a game that could easily be a shootout.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Insights
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Over their past three games, the Rams have coveted seven-of-nine red zone drives into touchdowns (prior: seven-of-17).
QB: Matthew Stafford posted his best EPA against zone in a game since Week 6, 2021 (it was the first time he posted a positive number since Week 1, the last time he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua)
Offense: In the return of their two star receivers, the Rams operated at their slowest pace of the season and it worked – they averaged a season-best 5.8 yards per play.
Defense: In Weeks 5-8, Los Angeles has allowed opponents to convert just 20% of third downs (Weeks 1-4: 50%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua dropped the first target on Thursday night, but in his return to action, three of Stafford’s first four passes were directed toward the second-year weapon.
Betting: The Rams kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night – they are 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since the beginning of 2019 when playing on extended rest (only the Jets and Texans have been worse in such spots over that stretch). They’ve failed to cover each of their past eight games (average cover margin: -6.1 points)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: This is Seattle’s fourth home game in a five-game stretch—they’ve lost the first three and been outscored 96-54 in those contests (Giants, 49ers, and Bills).
QB: In the first four weeks this season, Geno Smith completed 81% of his out-of-pocket throws. Over the past four weeks, that rate has regressed in a major way: 35.7%.
Offense: Seattle went three-and-out on 55.6% of their drives against the Bills, their second-highest rate since November 1, 2021 (Week 9, 2023, at Ravens).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks took advantage of their schedule (DEN, NE, and MIA) and allowed just 1.03 points per drive. In their five games since (DET, NYG, SF, ATL, and BUF), they are allowing 2.61 points per drive (up 153.4%)
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season – he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games back from injury.
Betting: The Seahawks are a league-worst 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) after Halloween since 2020 (the Rams are 23-19-1 ATS over that stretch, eighth-best).
Betting: Since 2021, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in home divisional games (unders are 7-3 in those games).