This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without consistently sound decision-making, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at the Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions game and try to optimize your lineup with the players on your radar.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -3.5
- Total: 51
- Rams implied points: 23.8
- Lions implied points: 27.3
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Can Matthew Stafford Produce Against His Former Team?
- Fantasy Points: 14.5
- Passing Yards: 224.1
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 2.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
In 2022, without Puka Nacua, Stafford ranked 27th in fantasy points per pressured attempt. In 2023, only seven quarterbacks were better, and that doesn’t include any of the top three quarterbacks off of fantasy draft boards this summer.
With Nacua able to win in a hurry and Cooper Kupp, theoretically, at full strength, Stafford repeating if not improving upon that quick-read production is very much in play. That’s a good trait to have any week but specifically against a Lions team that attempted to mask some secondary deficiencies by ranking third in pressure percentage a year ago (41.3%, trailing only Dallas and Cleveland).
Stafford funneled 55.9% of his targets in the playoff loss to these Lions to the Nacua/Kupp tandem; if he continues to look the way of his elite playmakers that often, he could backdoor his way into fantasy viable numbers.
I’ve taken a more conservative approach in ranking him, as I fear that Detroit could control the tempo in this spot. You could do worse than Stafford in a one-QB setting this week thanks to the matchup, but my guess is that, barring some unique strategy, the other QB on your roster is the better bet.
Is Jared Goff Set To Fail?
- Fantasy Points: 17.3
- Passing Yards: 262.7
- Passing TDs: 1.7
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 4.0
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
My preseason pick for MVP (+2500) led this Lions offense to the third-best red-zone grade in the league last season (64.1% touchdown rate), and I maintain that he will have a strong season … just not a strong Week 1.
The Rams held opponents to the ninth-lowest red-zone completion percentage last season, putting them in a position to negate a major strength from this Detroit offense. That’s part of the puzzle, but the bigger one is the type of QB who thrived against Los Angeles last season.
- Lamar Jackson
- Anthony Richardson
- Jalen Hurts
- Kyler Murray
- Tyrod Taylor
- Dak Prescott
- Derek Carr
Those were the QBs responsible for the highest fantasy point totals against the Rams last season. Carr is the closest to the Goff play type, but he only got there because his Saints were down 23 with 6.5 minutes left (57.8% of his fantasy points that day came on the final two drives). With the Lions favored to win this game, I’m not betting on that profile, which lands Goff outside of my top 12 at the position this week.
Does the Punt Return Label Matter for Kyren Williams?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.5
- Rushing Yards: 69.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.6
- Receptions: 2.3
- Receiving Yards: 15.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
PANIC. PUNT RETURNER. AHHH.
Calm down, people. There were only four players in the NFL last season to average even two punt returns per game, so let’s not act like this new role is going to tax Williams’ body in a way that his 21.7 touches per game last season didn’t.
KYREN WILLIAMS HAT TRICK pic.twitter.com/3nRotySEyY
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
The Lions owned the fourth-worst red-zone defense last season, and that is where you’re banking on Williams to put points on the board. In a game that could feature plenty of points, Williams is Los Angeles’ way to both get on the board and slow tempo.
You’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.
Is Jahmyr Gibbs Ready To Be Considered “Elite”?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 16.6
- Rushing Yards: 64.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.7
- Receptions: 3.5
- Receiving Yards: 21.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of enticing.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000.
Gibbs is special and matchup-proof. The fact that the Rams allowed the second-fewest RB runs of 15+ yards last season (seven) is noteworthy for showdown contests, but there’s no reason to look elsewhere when it comes to your season-long league.
Can David Montgomery Repeat His Consistency From 2023?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.4
- Rushing Yards: 52.0
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 1.8
- Receiving Yards: 14.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
After Week 5 last season, he played at least 52% of the snaps just once (Week 13 at NO, and it was a game-script situation — DET led by 21 points after just seven minutes). I worry about Montgomery’s long-term role in this offense if Gibbs shows the ability to succeed at a high level with an increase in work, but we aren’t yet to the moment where you’d bench Monty in a game that is projected to be a shootout.
Is Puka Nacua the Clear-Cut WR1 in Los Angeles?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.4
- Receptions: 5.4
- Receiving Yards: 76.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
He shook off a preseason injury and appears ready to pick up where he left off as a rookie. We saw his role slowly extend down the field last season, and he could well take the top off of this vulnerable Lions defense in addition to the highly efficient targets that he is so good at earning within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
In 2023, Detroit had the third-highest opponent aDOT and allowed 40 completions on passes that traveled 25+ yards in the air. Nacua can pay off your optimism without the big play and has the potential to break the slate any time he and Stafford make a splash.
Can Cooper Kupp Challenge the Top 15?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.9
- Receptions: 4.5
- Receiving Yards: 55.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
There is no need to get into the Nacua vs. Kupp debate — both are great, and I expect both to produce at the level of a fantasy starter, both this week and for the entirety of the season.
In his historic 2022 season, it was Kupp’s target-earning that caught everyone’s eye. Nacua is the betting favorite to out-earn him this season, but much like the Rodgers/Adams connection in Green Bay for years, the telepathic powers inside the red zone can pay the fantasy bills in a major way.
In an injury-plagued season, amid Nacua lighting the world on fire, Kupp saw 18.9% of his targets come inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (Nacua: 10%). Both should regularly see enough volume to produce without a touchdown, but Kupp’s touchdown equity should be viewed as elite; that keeps him at a WR2 floor, even if you think Nacua is the featured receiver this season.
Could Amon-Ra St. Brown Be Week 1’s WR1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 21.6
- Receptions: 8.2
- Receiving Yards: 94.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.6
The Rams allowed the fourth-highest TD/INT rate when opponents threw to the slot last season, not that Goff needs another reason to feature his certified star.
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St. Brown carved up these Rams for 110 yards and seven catches on nine targets during the Wild Card win last season, a level of success that he could very well repeat in the season opener. Every single arrow is pointed in the right direction here; the only question is if he can ascend to the top tier at the position — and I think he can!
Will Jameson Williams Take Step 1 of a Breakout Season?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
- Receptions: 1.8
- Receiving Yards: 30.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
I mentioned the high opponent aDOT for opponents facing the Lions. Only two defenses had a higher one — one of which happens to be their opponent this week. The Rams saw their average opponent throw come 9.2 yards downfield last season, the highest rate in the league and 19.5% above the NFL average.
Combine that with Williams’ increased snap share down the stretch last season, and we get a viable dart throw that I’d be interested in if I think my opponent has a better roster than I do. I highly doubt that Williams will ever profile as a “safe” option, and that has me more inclined to play him. I drafted him for his spike weeks, and this could well be one!
I don’t think Williams’ risk profile is any different than the Titans WR duo or Xavier Worthy in Kansas City, a trio of receivers that I suspect most would start over him without much thought.
Should Sam LaPorta Be Viewed as Fantasy’s TE1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.0
- Receptions: 6.2
- Receiving Yards: 64.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.7
The pride of Iowa was a revelation as a rookie (86-889-10) and looks more than ready to be the TE1 for years to come. He ended last season (including the playoffs) with a touchdown or double-digit targets in five straight games, showcasing the ability to win at all levels in the process.
From a fantasy standpoint, it was his ability to earn targets in scoring positions that made my heart full at the end of 2023. In his final four games of the regular season, LaPorta saw five end-zone targets, a huge step forward from the three he saw in his first 13 NFL games.
If you believe, as I do, that the Rams could struggle to generate pressure this season, then their league-high 8.6 opponent aDOT when not applying heat to the quarterback is a ceiling riser for Detroit’s second option in the passing game.
As Jameson Williams sees his role expand, defenses are going to be forced into an impossible situation: allocate resources to box in Amon-Ra St. Brown while keeping an eye on Williams over the top. LaPorta stands to be a beneficiary of that bind, matching up with linebackers who figure to struggle to keep up with him for more than a few steps.
What LaPorta did last season wasn’t fluky – you’re playing him every single week and gaining an advantage when doing so. I suspect he will be in the “pay up to be different” roster builds across DFS, and I’m here for it.
