Two of the biggest unknowns entering Week 1 face off in this matchup, and it makes for some tough decisions for fantasy football managers. The Los Angeles Chargers have a new head coach, while the Las Vegas Raiders have a new quarterback, meaning both are hard to judge with absolute certainty entering the season.
Accordingly, this game has a relatively low spread, but there is still some intriguing upside. Let’s examine the data points that we have to provide our projections and start/sit advice for this Raiders vs. Chargers matchup.
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Total: 41.5
- Raiders implied points: 19.3
- Chargers implied points: 22.3
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Can Gardner Minshew Lead This Raiders’ Offense to Fantasy Viability?
- Fantasy Points: 7.4
- Passing Yards: 109.3
- Passing TDs: 0.6
- Interceptions: 0.3
- Rushing Yards: 2.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
There might not be a more fun player in the NFL to root for than Minshew, but asking him to lead your fantasy team to glory comes with far more risk than reward.
Don’t get me wrong, Minshew can put fantasy points on the board when unleashed, though this appears to be a conservative offense that will ask him to not be reckless.
Across his 37 career starts, Minshew averaged 17.3 PPG when posting an average depth of throw north of 9 yards, and 15.7 PPG otherwise.
“That’s not that big of a gap, Kyle, and I want to have fun rooting for Minshew.”
I get it, but that gap is bigger than you think.
Last season, 17.3 PPG would have ranked as QB11, less than half a point from moving up two spots. On the other hand, 15.7 PPG would have been QB18, barely ahead of Joshua Dobbs.
Trust me, I like fun, and if Antonio Pierce decides to embrace a YOLO offense, Minshew has the potential to do some damage with two big-play receivers and a uniquely gifted tight end at his disposal. I just view that game plan as a long shot – a very long shot.
What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Justin Herbert to Start 2024?
- Fantasy Points: 12.6
- Passing Yards: 174.9
- Passing TDs: 1.1
- Interceptions: 0.4
- Rushing Yards: 9.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
If you drafted Herbert this summer, it was a bet on his talent with the understanding that you’d have to wait and see what this new-look offense did to maximize his tools.
Nothing has changed. Even in a seemingly strong matchup (though I’m never in a hurry to play a quarterback that could be subject to punishment from Maxx Crosby), you’re best to showcase patience.
It was a bumpy finish to 2023 (one TD pass on 98 pass attempts before his season ended early) and without much in the way of experience surrounding him, why would we assume that Herbert is ready to produce top-15 numbers at a loaded position?
I’m not sure either of these offenses will be in a hurry to snap the ball, potentially making this a low-possession game that nukes the fantasy value of most involved.
Is Zamir White Ready To Be a Fantasy Star?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.9
- Rushing Yards: 54.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 1.5
- Receiving Yards: 12.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
I don’t know if you’re ever going to love clicking White’s name into your starting lineup, but I’m also not sure if you’re ever going to fully regret it at the end of the week.
Over the final four weeks of last season, White ranked ninth among running backs in scoring (third in expected points) as the Raiders laid out a blueprint of what they, theoretically, want 2024 to look like.
The volume appears locked in – it’s the upside that’s the question.
Scoring is always going to be difficult, and in a game that might look more like 1994 than 2024, the possession count doesn’t exactly project favorably. White also doesn’t profile as much of a threat in the passing game, especially with two receivers and two tight ends likely to be prioritized ahead of him through the air.
I’m going to have White ranked as a viable Flex play most weeks as a mean ranking – if he scores, I’d bet he finishes inside the top 20. If he doesn’t, White could easily fall out of the top 30.
White’s projectable volume alone has him above committee backs that don’t play for high-flying offenses (I’ll swallow the touch disadvantage with Raheem Mostert or David Montgomery and chase their scoring equity over White).
He might lose that benefit of the doubt as these backfields (namely Washington, Dallas, and Tennessee) sort themselves out, but for now, he’s a low-upside Flex option who is more appealing in formats that de-emphasize pass-catching.
Is Gus Edwards a Touchdown-or-Bust Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
- Rushing Yards: 44.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 0.3
- Receiving Yards: 5.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.
No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.
If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.
No, not for this game – for the month of September.
There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.
The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.
But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.
Can Fantasy Managers Believe in J.K. Dobbins Again?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.9
- Rushing Yards: 27.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.4
- Receptions: 0.9
- Receiving Yards: 6.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game. The theory behind drafting him late this summer was sound in that it’s cheap exposure to a run-centric offense that lacks backfield depth chart clarity, but you’re very much playing the long game.
As long as Dobbins exits this game healthy, he should very much remain rostered, albeit with the understanding that he’s not a lineup option until we see him carve out a 10+ touch role consistently.
Will Davante Adams Remain Fantasy Viable With Another New QB?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.1
- Receptions: 4.0
- Receiving Yards: 67.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
The Raiders’ QB situation might be prohibitive to Adams at some point, but with an entire training camp to implement a game plan and a vulnerable defense on the other side, I don’t expect that to be the case in Week 1.
Last season, the Chargers were a bottom-five defense in YAC. Did you know that Adams paced the league with six touchdown catches on balls thrown less than 5 yards last season?) They were also a bottom-five unit in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per pass attempt.
The Chargers put up little in the way of resistance when it comes to limiting the number of Las Vegas throws directed to its WR1 – Adams had 25 targets across those two meetings. And with Minshew at the helm, there’s even more reason for optimism.
The Mustache has started 37 games across his NFL career, and 31 times has he supported a receiver clearing 15 PPR points. Take it a step further and you’ll notice that, in the majority of those instances, that wideout scored at least 18 points.
This isn’t an anti-Jakobi Meyers take – seven times has Minshew supported a pair of receivers surpassing 15 points. It’s simply supporting an elite talent at full strength in a good spot.
The schedule toughens in short order as the Raiders play the Ravens and Browns this month, and Adams’ ranking will dip with time. But for Week 1, an elite performance is very much a possibility.
Is Jakobi Meyers a Startable Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.0
- Receptions: 3.4
- Receiving Yards: 37.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Meyers doubled his career touchdown count last season as he turned 106 targets into 71 catches and eight scores. I maintain my belief that he is a good player with a number of ways to threaten defenses, something that could land him on fantasy radars with time. But, like with Minshew, I need to see how this offense functions before committing.
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If you want the bull case from a Meyers stan, the Chargers allowed a league-high 41 pass plays to gain 25+ yards last season and saw opponents pick on their secondary from the jump with a league-high 73.8% of their first-quarter yardage allowed being gained through the air.
I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted some Meyers DFS exposure, though he’s well off of my starting radar in annual leagues. For now.
Can Joshua Palmer Be a Regular Fantasy Starter This Season?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.6
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 40.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Palmer enters the season as my most rostered Chargers receiver, and I have hopes that he can earn valuable targets at a high enough level to get onto Flex radars.
That, however, is going to take time in this Jim Harbaugh system, and it’s why I don’t have any receiver on the Chargers’ roster inside of my top 40 at the position this week, even against a defense that allowed the highest red-zone completion percentage in the league last season (68.7%).
You drafted Palmer with the understanding that it could be a slow burn. Stay patient. There is likely to be a receiver from this offense that pushes for a Fllex-worthy ranking with time, but blindly guessing before we have any data is a good way to lose your matchup.
Will Rookie WR Ladd McConkey Be the Chargers’ Main Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.7
- Receptions: 3.2
- Receiving Yards: 48.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
The rookie comes to the pro game with some NFL-ready traits, and we could see him flex his YAC ability from Day 1.
The Raiders, thanks to the presence of Maxx Crosby, had the lowest opponent average depth of throw in 2023 (6.5, NFL average: 7.7), putting McConkey in position to rack up the receptions and show us what he has.
There’s no reason to plug McConkey in just yet, but this is a good spot to see if his skills translate to the speed of the pro game. It could also serve as an indicator of whether he will be a Flex option by the middle of the season as the Chargers’ target hierarchy comes into focus.
Can Brock Bowers’ Hype Translate to Fantasy Returns?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.7
- Receptions: 3.5
- Receiving Yards: 38.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I’m fine rostering Bowers and hoping that the raw talent wins out. That said, history tells us that you’re essentially betting on a touchdown if you start the Georgia star in his NFL debut, a shaky bet at best for a team with one of the lower implied totals on the Week 1 slate.
Since 2002, only one time has a tight end scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in his first career game when not finding the end zone. If you’re curious, Coby Fleener was that player, and he had the benefit of playing in an offense led by college teammate Andrew Luck and a game script that required three times as many pass attempts as rushes (the Colts lost 41-21 in Chicago).
Bowers’ preseason usage was encouraging, and there is a path to him mattering this season. But he’s not ranked as a fantasy starter for me this week and likely won’t be for this first month – not until we get a grasp on his role and how this offense is going to function.