The Las Vegas Raiders head east to face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 45.5)
It’s time we stopped pretending that the Cincinnati Bengals are a good team who have had a tough run in terms of their schedule. They are 3-5 and have only beaten teams who are among the worst in the NFL this season. Cincinnati’s schedule to date ranks as the 11th-easiest, and yet, the Bengals are in serious trouble when it comes to reaching the playoffs.
The positive is that they get to face another bad team this week, the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders rank 29th in our PR+, with the Bengals 23rd. However, this spread is right on the borderline of where I want to take Cincinnati this week. Ideally, I’m going to look to tease it down to under three points, where things will feel more comfortable.
The Bengals’ home game against the Raiders should be a slam dunk. Las Vegas is a bottom-half team both offensively and defensively, so they shouldn’t be able to exploit Cincinnati’s poor defense.
This game has the potential to be high scoring, but trusting the Raiders to do their part to hit the over is risky. The tease with the Bengals is probably the only smart play here.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Raiders 20
Pick: Bengals anywhere below -3 in a teaser
Raiders at Bengals Game Insights
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The NFL team average is 4.5 yards per carry—the Raiders failed to reach 3.5 in five of eight games last season (Week 8: 21 carries for 33 yards).
QB: Gardner Minshew’s average depth of throw over his past four appearances (ending with Sunday’s mark against the Chiefs): 8.3 – 7.7 – 6.2 – 4.6.
Offense: The Raiders either scored or went three-and-out on every drive on Sunday against the Chiefs.
Defense: Before Sunday, the Raiders hadn’t allowed more than five third-down conversions in a game this season (28.9% conversion rate). Amidst Kermit Gate, Patrick Mahomes picked up 12-of-16 (75%) opportunities.
Fantasy: What made Jakobi Meyers on Sunday? A season-low 5.8% aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury.
Betting: The Raiders have covered five of their past seven road games, with three of those covers coming by more than six points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have three wins this season – against the Panthers, Giants, and Browns.
QB: Joe Burrow’s red zone completion percentage is down to 53.7% from 67.4% last season
Offense: The Bengals have averaged under 5.0 yards per play three times this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks.
Defense: Cincinnati blitzed 28.6% of the time on Sunday (their highest since Week 3), but created pressure on a season-low 13.6% of Philadelphia dropbacks.
Fantasy: With Tee Higgins sidelined, Mike Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the month prior.
Betting: The Bengals are 0-4 ATS at home this season, failing to cover three of those games by double figures.
