The struggling Las Vegas Raiders, losers of four straight and six of eight, head to Cincinnati to take on the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 0-4 against the spread at home this season.
Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman for the Raiders vs. Bengals matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46.5)
Soppe: The Raiders might not be great, but they’ve been competitive in consecutive weeks (at Los Angeles Rams, vs. Kansas City Chiefs), and Joe Burrow hasn’t been great over his career in covering big numbers (4-8 ATS when the spread is over six points).
As per usual, it’s the defense that concerns me with Cincinnati. They rank 27th in red-zone conversion rate and allow the eighth-most yards per drive. If they are having a hard time getting off the field, covering a number like this gets increasingly difficult, especially against an offense that is happy to dink and dunk its way through possessions (LV: third-lowest average depth of throw this season).
We’ve seen the Raiders backdoor spreads in each of the past two weeks with scores in the final three minutes that meant nothing to most but the world to us — there’s a chance they make it three in a row if not outright being in a good spot to cover this number.
Pick: Raiders +7
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The NFL team average is 4.5 yards per carry — the Raiders failed to reach 3.5 in five of eight games this season (Week 8: 21 carries for 33 yards).
QB: Gardner Minshew II’s average depth of throw over his past four appearances in Weeks 5-8, respectively: 8.3, 7.7, 6.1, and 4.6 yards.
Offense: The Raiders either scored or went three and out on every drive on Sunday against the Chiefs.
Defense: Before Sunday, the Raiders hadn’t allowed more than five third-down conversions in a game this season (28.9% conversion rate). Amid Kermit Gate, Patrick Mahomes picked up 12 of 16 (75%) opportunities.
Fantasy: What made Jakobi Meyers great on Sunday? A season-low 5.8% aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury).
Betting: The Raiders have covered five of their past seven road games, with three of those covers coming by more than six points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have three wins this season: against the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns.
QB: Burrow’s red-zone completion percentage is down to 53.7% from 67.4% last season
Offense: The Bengals have averaged under 5.0 yards per play three times this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks.
Defense: Cincinnati blitzed 28.6% of the time on Sunday (their highest since Week 3) but created pressure on a season-low 13.6% of Philadelphia dropbacks.
Fantasy: With Tee Higgins sidelined, Mike Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the previous month.
Betting: The Bengals are 0-4 ATS at home this season, failing to cover three of those games by double figures.