Week 9 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 9 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. HOU)
Are we chasing a ghost in assuming that Aaron Rodgers is anything other than ordinary? Might that be overshooting it?
If not for his résumé, Rodgers’ 2024 profile wouldn’t be on our radar at all. He’s been Bo Nix if you remove Nix’s most valuable asset (his legs).
- 2024 Rodgers: 61.6% completion percentage, 85.1 passer rating, 1.7 TD/INT
- 2024 Nix: 63.2% completion percentage, 81.4 passer rating, 1.6 TD/INT
In the two games since the Davante Adams trade, Rodgers has completed 61.2% of his passes with a 1.5 touchdown-to-interception rate (Weeks 1-6: 61.8% completion percentage, 1.8 touchdown-to-interception) — nothing has changed for this instant fix trade.
On the bright side, Rodgers is distributing his passes how we’d like (Week 8: Garrett Wilson and Adams accounted for 52.9% of Jets receptions and 71.7% of their receiving yards), but the fantasy production simply hasn’t been there, and I’m not sure that changes in this spot.
The Texans allow the fourth-fewest red-zone trips per game (2.5), placing an even greater value on efficiency that Rodgers has yet to show us given the slow nature of New York’s offense. In Weeks 1-4, Houston created pressure on 31% of non-blitzed dropbacks, a rate that ranked 18th. Since, however, that percentage is up to 36.8% (ninth), and Rodgers completed 13 of 32 pressured passes in October.
I’m probably late to the party here, but I’m done fearing Rodgers in any capacity. I have the aforementioned Nix ranked well ahead of him this week, and at this point, I’d rather gamble on Anthony Richardson (at Minnesota) — and that’s saying something.
Andy Dalton | CAR (vs. NO)
A car accident early last week resulted in a thumb injury that ultimately kept Andy Dalton from suiting up last week. With Carolina’s season not going anywhere and Bryce Young 13 years Dalton’s junior, a move back to Young seemed inevitable and should be considered the expectation for the remainder of 2024.
Dalton (multiple TD passes in three of five starts, but six interceptions in his last four) can safely be cut in all formats.
Anthony Richardson | IND (at MIN)
I don’t want to pile on, but the number of unimpressive stats surrounding Anthony Richardson is getting out of control. He earned the lowest QB+ grade of Week 8, which is hard to do when you connect on a 69-yard touchdown in a week where every team was in action.
One big play should elevate you out of the basement, but when you complete 29% of your passes with zero scores outside of that play, you get what you deserve grade-wise. That Josh Downs score is the only one Richardson has thrown since Week 2 (80 attempts), and he hasn’t pushed the ball over the line with his legs since the season opener.
In theory, I should be enamored with Richardson’s ability to pick up cheap points with his legs (101 rush yards in his two games back from injury, so no real restrictions there), but I just can’t get there.
The bad interception at the end of the first half demonstrates that he is broken in more ways than just decision-making. He’s completely lost all confidence as a passer, and that’s made him unplayable.
The Vikings have as many multi-INT games as multi-TD pass games allowed this season, and it certainly feels as if Richardson is more likely to slide into the latter bucket than the former. The Colts shared this assessment and, on Tuesday, made it official that they were opting to go to Joe Flacco under center.
If you have the roster space, holding Richardson for a week or two is still my preferred option — if for no other reason than this franchise has more to gain by learning as much as they can about him than chasing 2024 success by way of Flacco.
If you are desperate for wins — a very real possibility given that your projected starting QB has been abysmal — cutting ties is an acceptable action.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at KC)
Does the clock strike midnight here? Your gut reaction, and mine as well, was an emphatic “yes”, but the numbers paint a more optimistic picture and land Baker Mayfield in a massive tier of quarterbacks for me this week that ranges from QB13 to QB20 in my ranks.
While it’s true that the Chiefs’ defense ranks top five in yards per play, yards per game, and pressures per game, they are an aggressive bunch, and Mayfield has excelled in such spots. He draws the ninth blitz-happiest unit this week, which could play out to his advantage as he averages 8.7 yards per pass with an 8.5% TD rate when the opponent brings an extra man.
For context, Mayfield ranks fourth in blitzed passer rating through eight weeks, producing a mark that is 34.8% higher than when not blitzed.
Mayfield ranks second to only Tua Tagovailoa in quick release rate, a style of offense that naturally lends itself to beating the blitz. I’m not saying he’s bulletproof, but he’s been a QB1 in seven of eight games, and it’s not a crazy thought he could make it eight of nine — especially if you believe Kansas City’s offense can push him.
I think Mayfield makes for an interesting DFS Showdown play on Monday night. When props are released, I might also be invested in a few Mayfield overs if the public overestimates his potential struggles in this tough spot.
Bo Nix | DEN (at BAL)
Anything can happen for a single game, we are all aware of that. But if I told you two months ago at your draft to order the quarterbacks in terms of likeness to post a four-week stretch where he is fantasy’s QB3, where would Bo Nix have slotted?
23rd? 33rd?
Okay, so that might be a little harsh, though the Joe Flacco supporters come out strong at times.
Nix has cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight games and has fired multiple touchdown passes in three of those contests. Essentially, he’s doing what we thought Jayden Daniels would do, and it all looks sustainable to my eye.
Could Nix hit a rookie wall at some point? It’s possible, but is it going to happen against the tire fire that is the Ravens’ pass defense?
Baltimore ranks 26th or worse in passer rating, yards per attempt, air yards per throw, and touchdown rate this season, giving Nix access to a ceiling to complement the floor that his athleticism provides.
I have Nix ranked as QB11 and, to be honest, am worried I’m not high enough. As it is, I have him over Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, both of whom were top-five picks at the position by ADP this summer.
I know we have “De-Hember” for Derrick Henry. Could we be entering “Bo-Vember”? The Chiefs are a tough matchup next week, but the Ravens this week with the Falcons and Raiders around that matchup lineup nicely.
I’ll see myself out.
Bryce Young | CAR (vs. NO)
Bryce Young is a long way away from holding redraft value, but at least dynasty managers caught a glimpse of some promise on Sunday against the Broncos. Without either of his top two receivers, Young threw multiple TD passes for the third time in his career and completed 17 of 20 short passes (85%).
Not all growth is linear. It’s possible that Young’s learning curve is an extended one and that he will hit his stride next season in Year 2 under Dave Canales. In a dynasty league, given Young’s depressed value, you have no choice but to hold, and I’m not sure that’s a bad thing.
Caleb Williams | CHI (at ARI)
If you drafted Caleb Williams and/or are counting on him in any capacity, the roller-coaster ride has been an experience. Depending on when you’ve jumped on and off will influence your feeling toward rostering the rookie, but I’ve generally been encouraged of late, and this matchup has me willing to go back to the well, even after a dreadful Week 8 showing.
What caused the disaster that was the Washington game? In short, Williams didn’t handle the blitz well.
In Weeks 3-7, he was the third-best quarterback in terms of passer rating against the blitz (133.3, trailing only Jared Goff and Joe Burrow). But in Week 8, Williams checked in 31st of 33 qualifiers (61.7, worst of QBs who had more than five pass attempts against the blitz for the week).
I’m not sure if that’s a blip on the radar or cause for long-term concern, but that’s a problem for another day. The Cardinals (third-most red-zone trips allowed this season) are a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of blitz rate and the second-worst at creating pressure when they do elect to bring an extra defender. That’s the driving force behind my QB12 ranking of the rookie, one spot ahead of Mahomes.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (at NYJ)
It’s very possible that we underestimated the impact that Nico Collins had on the flow of Houston’s offense. His playmaking is one thing, but like Steph Curry in the NBA, the leverage Collins provides just by being active opens up things for everyone else, something that simply hasn’t been the case since he went down.
C.J. Stroud has 11 deep pass attempts over his past two games — in the last two games in which Collins started, he had 11 deep completions. Defenses aren’t respecting the Texans’ offense in the same fashion, and Stroud is struggling to adapt for our purposes with an average finish outside of the top 20 since his WR1 went down.
Things don’t get any easier this week with Stefon Diggs lost for the season and the Jets on the schedule. New York is a top-five pass defense this season in yards per attempt, yards allowed after the catch, sack rate, and touchdown rate, all of which figure to limit Stroud’s floor/ceiling combination.
The Jets won’t hesitate to bring the heat, which is another area in which Stroud’s production has fallen off of a cliff since Collins’ injury (Weeks 1-5: 63% completion percentage when pressured, since: 41.2%).
Get well soon, Nico. Stroud is my QB16 this week.
Dak Prescott | DAL (at ATL)
This matchup is friendly enough to sniff around Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb stacks in DFS. Yet, with multiple interceptions in three of Prescott’s past four games, I’m not sold on the floor being high enough to justify going in this direction in season-long formats.
Most quarterbacks in today’s NFL offer some level of mobility and, for fantasy, that factors into why I largely don’t sweat interceptions. They usually indicate aggression (which we want), and many can get those points back with their legs at some point, not to mention the fantasy-friendly game script that has the potential to arise from a turnover that puts his team behind.
But the days of Prescott producing at even a league-average rate with his legs are long gone. He has more games with a negative rushing total this season than double-digit yard performances.
The case for America’s QB this week is simple. The Falcons can’t pressure the QB (fourth-lowest rate), and when Prescott isn’t pressured, he gets the ball to Lamb.
- Lamb target share when Prescott is pressured: 15.4%
- Lamb target share when Prescott isn’t pressured: 30.4%
If you’re telling me that 30.4% of Prescott’s passes go in Lamb’s direction, I’ll blindly start him. Of course, we don’t know if that’s going to be the case, and I have to rank accordingly. But I’m interested in the DFS space, especially at suppressed ownership as people look to stack up the Lions/Packers game or pay up for great spots in Josh Allen (vs. MIA) and Jayden Daniels (at NYG).
Daniel Jones | NYG (vs. WAS)
Per our NFL Week 9 Stats and Insights piece, released every Tuesday morning and demands your attention if you want a jump start on the week ahead, Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home since the Damar Hamlin injury. If that feels like a long time ago, that’s because it was (Jan. 2, 2023).
A note like that isn’t predictive as much as it is a way to highlight the state of New York’s offense right now, and the field conditions at their home venue certainly don’t help.
In the past, we’ve seen Jones overcome his limitations as a passer thanks to plus-rushing numbers. But no more than five carries in three of his past five — that out is not one we can currently bank on having.
The Commanders own the third-highest pressure rate in the league this season, and Jones’ completion percentage when sped up is set to decline for a second consecutive season.
There may be opportunities to stream Jones in a pinch or get creative in a daily setting (they get the Bucs with an extra week to prep in Week 12 and a meeting with Baltimore still looms), but I’m going to need to see something in the way of form before considering those dangerous options.
Derek Carr | NO (at CAR)
Derek Carr has missed three straight games with an oblique injury, and he might not have his starting role back when deemed healthy.
See? I have to make sure you’re paying attention. This is a long article that you’re embarking upon, and we need you to be locked in as you chase a playoff berth.
Saints QB Rankings, Weeks 6-8:
- 25th in passer rating
- 26th in yards per attempt
- 30th in completion percentage
- 31st in touchdown rate
- 32nd in first down rate
Carr began throwing last week, which leads me to believe that he could be back sooner than later. Jake Haener took over for Spencer Rattler last week in a shuffling of chairs on the Titanic situation and operated from the pocket for 16 of his 17 pass attempts. As far as third-string QBs go, I thought Haener was fine, but nothing noteworthy for fantasy managers, especially with the injuries that have taken place in the Saints’ receiver room.
The first two weeks have proven to be the outlier, not the norm in New Orleans, and while this matchup is tempting, I’m nowhere near comfortable in trusting Carr if activated. There are simply too many viable options at the position this week to take on this sort of risk.
Drake Maye | NE (at TEN)
Jerod Mayo was surprised when the medical staff told him that Drake Maye had to go into the blue tent following his head injury but admitted that “pulling him out of the game and putting him in protocol is above my pay grade.”
It doesn’t sound like a lasting injury and reporting out of New England is painting an optimistic picture that their franchise QB will not miss any time.
Maye has a fantasy-friendly skill set and had a pair of top-12 QB finishes prior to the injury. Asking him to be a weekly option for your team this season is a bit optimistic, but assuming health, I don’t think his days as a viable streamer are over.
The Patriots get a nice three-game run to round out the month (Rams, Dolphins, and Colts), a stretch where I could see playing Maye in a pinch.
The Titans defense is quietly top five in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and first-down rate, rankings that have me off of Maye this week, but don’t lose track of him — he’s already an asset in our game, even if the product is raw.
Gardner Minshew II | LV (at CIN)
I understand wanting to target the Bengals’ defense, but I can’t get there with Gardner Minshew II.
Minshew has yet to finish a week better than QB18 this season and is masking a talent deficiency on this roster with short passes that do very little damage (his average depth of throw over his past four games: 8.3 yards, 7.7, 6.2, 4.6).
Even in this plus spot, the Raiders have an implied total of under 20 points. There are a handful of offenses to ignore altogether and this is one of them.
Geno Smith | SEA (vs. LAR)
If DK Metcalf is deemed active this week, I’ll move Geno Smith up a few spots, but that still won’t land him as the QB1 in this game or a top-15 option at the position across the league for me.
Last season, Smith averaged just 5.8 yards per pass against the Rams. And although this Los Angeles defense isn’t nearly as good, I have trust issues here.
The Rams rank fifth in pressure rate thus far, and considering that Smith is averaging just 5.4 yards per pressured attempt over the past month with as many interceptions as touchdowns, you can do better.
The five top-10 finishes from earlier this season were done with some smoke and mirrors, making a glance at Smith’s overall box score a bit misleading. He doesn’t have a 40-yard completion in five straight games, and with Kenneth Walker III in a strong spot, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we saw a third straight sub-30 attempt game from Smith.
Jacoby Brissett | NE (at TEN)
If Brissett gets the nod this week, it adds value to the Titans’ D/ST, and that’s about it.
That’s not true, it makes me more interested in betting the under as well. But in terms of fantasy value, this hopefully would mean nothing to you. This would hurt people looking to start Hunter Henry and/or Rhamondre Stevenson as the offensive environment as a whole suffers.
Brissett has thrown 159 passes this season and two of them have resulted in scores.
No bueno.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. JAX)
Hurts moved into second place in franchise history in rushing scores on Sunday, an effort that showcased all of the reasons why he is my QB1 this week and the rest of the way.
In the blowout win, he had a pair of Tush Push scores, a perimeter run for another touchdown, and a 45-yard dime over the shoulder of DeVonta Smith in the end zone. He’s a strong bet to be the sixth quarterback to crack 20 fantasy points against the Jaguars this season. As long as he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can’t be a staple on a fantasy title team.
Jameis Winston | CLE (vs. LAC)
This man has as many multi-pass TD games as Deshaun Watson this season and has a higher peak finish in 2024 than Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers.
He’s made one start.
The Browns’ season isn’t going anywhere, but with the 30-year-old Winston in the final year of his contract, I’m not the least bit worried about motivation. We know that there is a reckless side to him, but that’s the mindset I want if I’m streaming the position.
I’m not going there this weekend against the third-most effective blitzing team that ranks fifth-best in yards per pass allowed this season — but I’m OK with stashing him and seeing where this goes.
- Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins
Jared Goff | DET (at GB)
Weeks like last are going to happen for QBs on elite teams. Goff threw for just 85 yards against the Titans as Detroit found a hundred different ways to score on their way to 52 points, finishing the week as QB18.
You take the good with the bad. We always preach the value of having players tethered to great teams — Goff checks that box. He was just the victim of a crazy game. He remains the most efficient QB in the game (last four games: 84.3% complete, 11.7 yards per pass, and a 12% touchdown rate). That puts him into my top 10, a solid accomplishment given the lack of rushing production.
The Packers have caused plenty of turnovers this season, and that leads the highlight shows, but they are allowing the eighth-most yards per completion. All Goff does these days is complete passes at a historic rate. They also rank 29th in blitz rate, making it likely that Detroit’s receivers have plenty of time to find soft spots against this aggressive secondary.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (at NYG)
The Hail Mary bailed you out from a very disappointing effort, but I wasn’t all that discouraged from the outing against a stingy Bears defense. The fantasy numbers weren’t as gaudy as we’ve become accustomed to, and that’s going to happen from time to time. That said, he was still delivering the ball on time, he was still picking up chunks of yardage on the ground (52 yards), and he played clean football.
That’s much more of a football take than a fantasy one, but his continued maturation in a traditional football sense will open doors for sustained fantasy greatness beyond what his physical tools have already showcased.
These Giants held Daniels in check back in Week 2 (13.4 fantasy points) — he’s a different quarterback now with two months under his belt. The top three QB performances against New York this season have all seen the signal-caller pick up over seven fantasy points with his legs, a box I plan on Daniels checking this week on his path to his fourth top-five finish of the season.
Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. LV)
I’d take my chances most weeks if you told me Burrow was going to complete over 70% of his passes, funnel over 30% of his looks to Ja’Marr Chase, and run for 15 yards. That profile, more often than not, is going to make him a usable piece. But against the Eagles last week, it resulted in his worst weekly finish since Week 1.
The Friday injury to Tee Higgins certainly disrupted what this offense wanted to do, and the lack of a ground game certainly didn’t help (Chase Brown and Zack Moss ran 17 times for 43 yards with a long rush of five yards). This week should be better.
Not only will the team have a contingency plan in place for the Higgins situation, a level of balance is much more likely as they face a defense that ranks 23rd in rush success rate and 28th in yards allowed per carry after contact to running backs this year.
Burrow has been able to marry an increase in quick strike rate with regular downfield shots, a combination that should prove lethal in this spot. The Raiders create pressure at the fifth-lowest rate and allow the fifth-most red-zone trips per game (3.6). I have zero hesitation about going back to Cincy’s franchise man — he’s my QB6 for Week 9.
Joe Flacco | IND (at MIN)
Flacco has multiple passing scores in eight straight regular-season games, including all three instances in which he’s been called upon this season. The veteran’s floor is clearly higher than that of the man he is replacing, but I don’t love this spot, even with Minnesota struggling a bit of late.
The well-rested Vikings rank better than the league average in nearly every metric against short passes, putting them in a position to further limit Flacco’s ceiling (6.6-yard aDOT). With Minnesota operating at the fifth-slowest pace, we ran into a volume issue, and that resulted in Flacco simply replacing Anthony Richardson in my ranks.
Among the widely available options down the QB board, I have Flacco over Jameis Winston, but you’d have to be in a very difficult spot to have to go that direction.
Jordan Love | GB (vs. DET)
I continue to be impressed with Jordan Love. On Sunday, his first 12 passes saw seven different players targeted, distribution patterns that rarely develop this early in careers.
Of course, his Week 8 came to an end early with a groin injury, and while all reports in the first half of this week are leaning in the positive direction, Green Bay’s schedule figures to be a part of the decision-making process when it comes to sending Love out there for Sunday’s marquee matchup.
- Week 10 bye
- Week 11 at Chicago Bears
- Week 12 vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 13 vs. Miami Dolphins (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14 at Detroit Lions (TNF)
Green Bay has several important games coming up, and with the bye following Sunday’s game, a cautious approach could prove to be sharp. The Lions are an average pass defense on all fronts, which will land Love inside my top 10 quarterbacks, so long as he is operating without limitations.
If Love were to sit, Malik Willis would again take over for the Packers — fantasy managers can do better. Caleb Williams (at ARI) and Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF) are far too available in ESPN leagues while Jameis Winston (vs. LAC) is still on plenty of wires — all of whom I’d play over Willis should you be forced to pivot.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs. MIA)
Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023). He’s squished the fish whenever given the opportunity.
While he saw his 13-game multi-TD pass streak against Miami come to an end in Week 2 due to the domination of the run game (78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries for James Cook), he’s on the short list of players who could set the pace for scoring this weekend.
He has this Buffalo offense trending in a positive direction, and that creates an elite floor. The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4, they followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week. Allen is locked and loaded in all formats — there isn’t such a thing as having too much exposure to him this weekend.
Justin Herbert | LAC (at CLE)
Herbert is coming off his first top-15 fantasy finish of the season, though that performance (279 yards and two touchdowns) came against a Saints defense that is trending toward one of the worst in the league.
The Browns aren’t the defensive powerhouse that they have been in the past, but they’ve shown signs of life lately and lead the league in pressure rate. Herbert’s completion rate when under duress this season is trending toward a career low. And with volume always a concern (26th in pass rate over expectation), any efficiency concerns are damning for his fantasy stock.
Herbert is a better NFL QB than a fantasy asset in this system, and I don’t see that changing this week or for the remainder of 2024.
Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs. DAL)
Sadly, the way the NFL schedule works, Cousins doesn’t get to face the Bucs again this season. What fun is that?
He again lit up the divisional foe last week. If you extend his numbers against Tampa Bay for a 600-pass season, we are talking about a cool 5,414 passing yards and 56 touchdowns.
It’s been the rest of the NFL that has been a problem. The former Viking put up top-five numbers in both Buccaneers games — he has one finish inside the top 20 fantasy signal-callers otherwise.
Three pocket passers have cleared 21 fantasy points against the Cowboys this season (Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr), a list Cousins could join this week. His profile is so-so, but this is more a play against a Dallas defense that has seen their success rate when blitzing tank since the injuries suffered up front.
Cousins’ efficiency when not pressured is his best since 2021 and lands him as a low-end QB1 for me this weekend.
Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. CHI)
Murray has been a top-12 QB in three of his past four games, and we again got a glimpse of what could be. Last week, his 22-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. was nothing short of perfection, and his dynamic ability opens up throwing lanes that he is finally maximizing (9.1 yards per out-of-pocket pass, three full yards ahead of his career norm).
We just saw the Bears lock up Jayden Daniels for 59 minutes and 59 seconds, but I think part of that was their respect for Washington’s run game, thus bringing them closer to the line of scrimmage to muddy up Daniels’ quick reads.
That won’t be the case in this spot (Washington RBs rank fifth in yards per carry before contact while Arizona’s rank 29th), putting Murray in a spot to exceed 40 scoring opportunities (pass and rush attempts). If that’s the case, he doesn’t have to be overly efficient to produce top-10 numbers — I think that’s what we see here.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. DEN)
A Rashod Bateman drop last week robbed Jackson of additional yards and the 300-yard bonus in daily spots last week. I mean, your job title is “receiver;” you’d think “receiving” the ball would be at the top of his résumé, but what do I know?
No, I’m not at all salty about that drop. It certainly didn’t impact my DFS lineups, my moneyline picks competition, or my bet on the Ravens’ team total. Why do you ask?
OK, I had to get that off of my chest. Jackson has been the QB6 or better in six weeks this season, building a profile that looks very much like what Jalen Hurts gave us up to this point a season ago. Denver’s aggressive defense (second in pressure rate) is a problem for most, but Jackson isn’t “most.”
Jackson’s splits, 2024:
- Pressured: 108.2 passer rating, 7.0 yards per attempt, and 10.9% TD rate
- Not pressured: 118.1 passer rating, 9.6 yards per attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
His next pressured interception will be his first of the season. This Denver defense tops our Defense+ metric, and I’m buying what they are selling — just not against the reigning MVP.
Malik Willis | GB (vs. DET)
Should Malik Willis get the nod for the Cheeseheads, I actually think they have a chance to compete. However, that works counter to his fantasy stock.
The reason I’d give Green Bay a puncher’s chance in this event is because they’d go out of their way to melt the clock — the old “your best defense is your offense” strategy to keep the high-flying Lions on the bench.
If the Packers are operating at a snail’s pace, we run into volume concerns across the board. Yes, Willis was QB6 in Week 3, but that came against a much less intimidating offense (Tennessee) and saw him average 10.6 yards per attempt while scoring 13.3 points with his legs.
Those rates aren’t sustainable. If you want to bet on Willis should he get the nod, take Green Bay with the points instead of putting him into any fantasy roster.
Mason Rudolph | TEN (vs. NE)
Mason Rudolph was able to produce early last week by loading Calvin Ridley down with targets in the first quarter, but that strategy ran out of gas with time and isn’t a sustainable way to pay the fantasy bills moving forward.
He has a sub-4% career touchdown rate and should be nowhere near fantasy rosters for Week 9. His greatest asset will be his willingness to lock in on Ridley, something we hope sustains for as long as he is under center
Matthew Stafford | LAR (at SEA)
The Seahawks’ defense has largely been able to shut down inept passing games while proving vulnerable against even semi-stable ones, making them a legitimate target now that the Rams have their impact receivers back and get the benefit of the mini-bye after beating the Vikings last Thursday night.
Weeks 1 and 8 (with both star receivers):
- 19.7 fantasy points per game
- 71.1% complete
- 6% touchdown rate
- 77.9 pressured passer rating
Weeks 2-7 (without at least one of his star receivers):
- 8.1 fantasy points per game
- 65.8% complete
- 1.3% touchdown rate
- 39.9 pressured passer rating
It didn’t take long to see the impact health had on Stafford — 6.6 first-quarter fantasy points last week (three games prior: 5.7). Logic would state that the Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua tandem is near impossible to guard man-to-man, and that makes Stafford’s production against zone with his favorite targets in the mix all that more meaningful as that is the most likely direction defenses go.
Stafford’s EPA vs. zone:
- Week 8: 11.75
- Week 1: 0.81
- Week 3: -1.22
- Week 4: -2.23
- Week 5: -2.51
- Week 7: -3.29
- Week 2: -12.88
I could throw 1,000 more numbers at you, but I’ll spare you all of the nerding out. It goes without saying that Stafford’s limitations as a runner cap his ceiling (though he did look athletic in avoiding a sack before finding Kupp in the end zone last week). But with L.A.’s defense underwhelming, he’s going to be put in a position to produce big numbers from the pocket.
Stafford is flirting with QB1 status this week for me, and you could certainly justify playing him over preseason MVP front-runners C.J. Stroud or Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. TB)
Benching Mahomes isn’t something you thought you’d be wrestling with when you drafted him, but every number produced through two months suggests that it’s the right move.
I could weigh you down with facts like “Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games” or “he went through the entire month of October without a completion of 20+ air yards,” but how about the simple fact that Kansas City is undefeated?
The Chiefs don’t need Mahomes to produce fantasy points for you to put ticks in the win column — it really is that simple.
The Bucs aren’t an intimidating defense, and maybe Mahomes will get it rolling under the bright lights on Monday. But we are in the predictions business, and nothing he has done up to this point is deserving of our trust.
Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate (35.4% of dropbacks), and Mahomes is pacing for the second-worst TD rate of his career alone with easily the highest interception rate of his career when opponents bring the heat.
If you’re starting Mahomes, I get it. It’s blind faith, and if you’ve made that bet over his career, you’re doing just fine. For me, he’s behind three rookies this week, and I could make a sound case for playing Matthew Stafford instead. Or even Mahomes’ opposing number in this game if you really want to get frisky.
Sam Darnold | MIN (at vs. IND)
Remember when Derek Carr looked like the league MVP and the Saints were on a historic pace? I don’t want to say that Minnesota’s house of cards could face a similar fate, but …
First quarter, Week 8:
- 100% completion percentage
- 12.1 yards per pass
- 12.6 fantasy points
Most recent 11 quarters otherwise:
- 61.3% completion percentage
- 7.7 yards per pass
- 2.4 fantasy points per quarter
Weeks 1-4:
- 68.9% completion percentage
- 8.8 yards per pass
- 4.9 fantasy points per quarter
Darnold’s status as a viable option in one-QB formats appears to be on thin ice. However, if you have to go back to him, you could do worse than this matchup, at home, on extended rest.
Minnesota heads to Jacksonville in Week 10, making this a good bounce-back spot, but Darnold is outranked outside of my starting tier this week. I need to see him rekindle the magic before betting on it.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at PHI)
The idea of buying low on Lawrence in a dynasty format is appealing to me, but the idea of playing him in a redraft format is appalling to me. With Christian Kirk done for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially on the shelf for the next two weeks, what exactly is Lawrence’s path to a top-15 week?
A heavy dose of Evan Engram is likely, and I think that can result in some production. However, with the rushing upside much less prevalent than in years past (8.7 rushing yards per game over his past six), the risk profile is simply too large to even consider going in this direction.
Philadelphia is a top-10 time-of-possession team while Jacksonville is in the bottom 10. With this spread checking in at over a touchdown, the expectation is that the Eagles dictate tempo throughout. Lawrence has been a streamer for each of the past five weeks now (QB finishes between 9-15 in each of those contests), but I view that as an optimistic ceiling case this weekend with the more likely outcome being well behind that.
Lawrence is my QB23 for Week 9.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at BUF)
I thought Tagovailoa looked as good as you could have realistically hoped for in his return to action last week. We saw his impact on this offense as a whole right off the bat (two double-digit gains on the first two plays), and we got the vintage dime to Tyreek Hill, a 30-yard dot down the right sideline on an early third down.
Not everything is going to be perfect, especially behind a shaky offensive line. But against the second-lowest blitz defense in the league, I have enough confidence to plug in Tagovailoa this week in most formats.
The Bills excel at defending the perimeter, and I think that will help fuel their postseason success against teams like Pittsburgh and Houston. But Miami’s motion might render that strength useless and result in them chasing the Dolphins’ burners as opposed to locking them down.
There’s plenty of risk in this play, and Buffalo owns the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league. But if you’ve waited out this situation, I think you have to call his number in what shouldn’t be a bad weather spot and has a game total approaching 50 points. Right now, I have Tagovailoa tiered with Jared Goff, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams as the end of the tier of QBs I’m comfortable starting in Week 9.
Will Levis | TEN (vs. NE)
If it needs to be said that you’re not trusting Levis under any circumstances, it might be time to explore other hobbies.
The foliage in New England is beautiful this time of year. Fall is a great time to explore new recipes. There are other ways to spend your fall days than banking on Levis to develop out of nowhere.
We aren’t sure if a shoulder injury will again keep him out of action, but with his yards per attempt down 21.1% from last season, there’s no reason to be waiting on this status. Mason Rudolph has filled in as best he can, but that’s not a direction to be going, either.
If you’re hell-bent on getting Titans exposure, you can be encouraged by the connection that Rudolph showed with Calvin Ridley for a 10-minute stretch last week. Outside of that, you can move on from this game without much thought.