NFL Player Props Week 1: Picks Include Stefon Diggs, James Conner, and Jahmyr Gibbs

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for Week 1.

Last Update: Saturday at 10:45 a.m. ET 

The Best Week 1 Player Props and Betting Lines To Target

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Bet: Mecole Hardman under 19.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings) 1u

This was the first bet I placed for the season. The moment I saw it, I knew it was wrong. Early in the season, sportsbooks are guessing just like we are. This line appeared to presume Mecole Hardman would be the Chiefs’ WR3.

I knew Hardman was behind not only Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy but Justin Watson and Skyy Moore, as well. As it turns out, he’s also behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s a legitimate chance this voids because Hardman doesn’t play an offensive snap.

Unfortunately, this line no longer exists. If you want to bet this under at 10.5, you can. I think it’s still worth it.

Bet: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions (-120 at Bet365) 1u

Rashee Rice started to become more integrated into the Chiefs’ offense around Week 12 last season. From that point forward, he caught at least six balls in eight of his last 10 games, including the playoffs. Rice is Patrick Mahomes’ clear WR1. With no Hollywood Brown and the team looking to keep Travis Kelce fresh, Rice should be treated like the alpha WR1 he is. This is a volume play.

This line is still available. At worst, you can get -125 on DraftKings, which is perfectly fine.

Bet: Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (+105 at DraftKings) 1u

I have a rule. If Derrick Henry’s odds to score a touchdown are -110 or better, I bet him. Every time. No questions asked. He’s Derrick Henry.

Henry is one of the best short-yardage backs of all time. Last season, Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns for the Baltimore Ravens. Henry is a lot better than Edwards.

There is a DraftKings Super Boost for Henry or Travis Kelce to score at even money. Obviously, you should bet that. But if you want to get more down on Henry to score, you can get -110 at BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Neutral Site — Brazil Game)

Bet: Christian Watson under 3.5 receptions parlayed with Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 receptions (+164 at DraftKings) 0.5u

By all accounts, Christian Watson is the healthiest he’s ever been. That’s great news and does give me slight pause that perhaps he will play more than I think. With that said, the Packers have an abundance of talented wide receivers. My read on the situation is Watson will not be an every-down player. I expect him to rotate with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks.

Watson is a splash-play guy. He’s very much capable of ripping off 70+ receiving yards on just a couple of receptions. But in 25 career games, including the playoffs, he’s caught more than three passes just eight times. Last season, he did it twice. I don’t think he’s seeing more than 5-6 targets, placing the odds in our favor.

Jump down to the Steelers/Falcons game for my discussion of Pat Freiermuth.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Bet: Greg Dortch over 2.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings) 1u

The moment I saw this line, I knew it was off. It was actually +116 at FanDuel, but it moved as I tried to bet it.

Greg Dortch has gotten rave reviews all throughout training camp. He’s listed as the team’s primary slot receiver on the Cardinals’ first official depth chart. I believe he is more the WR2 than Michael Wilson.

Per TruMedia, the Bills allowed 131 receptions to the slot last season. While Dortch only ran 29% of his routes from the slot last season, he was 69.5% the year before. Expect him to be more around that rate this season.

This line is now -155 on DraftKings, but you can get -132 at FanDuel, which I still think is a good bet.

Bet: James Conner over 12.5 rush attempts (-120 at DraftKings) 1u

I am of the belief that the Cardinals will be better than expected. That is what this bet is predicated on. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs in Buffalo, N.Y. If the Bills smoke the Cardinals, this is going to lose. I think the Cardinals can hang.

Last season, Conner went over 12.5 rush attempts in nine of his 13 games. Of the four in which he failed, the Cardinals lost by 19, 14, 23, and 11. I do not expect rookie Trey Benson to see more than a couple of carries. At least for right now, Conner is the clear lead back. As long as this game doesn’t get out of hand, this should hit easily.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Bet: Ja’Lynn Polk under 36.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u

This was another line that jumped out at me when I saw it. Ja’Lynn Polk is talented. I expect him to be the Patriots’ WR1 by season’s end. But it’s Week 1. Currently, he’s behind DeMario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, and possibly Tyquan Thornton.

This number was simply too high for a team quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett on what many expect to be the worst offense in football.

This line has moved back and forth. The best I see currently is 30.5 yards (-108) at Caesars. That is borderline worth betting on; I would probably lay off, though.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Bet: Joe Mixon anytime touchdown (+120 at DraftKings) 0.5u

The Texans only scored 10 rushing touchdowns all of last season. However, Joe Mixon had always been a quality goal-line back for the Bengals.

In C.J. Stroud’s second season, the Texans project to be one of the best offenses in football. They should be able to move the ball up and down on the Colts’ subpar defense.

With an implied team total of about 25 points, the Texans project to score three touchdowns. If they get inside the five-yard-line, the ball should go into Mixon’s gut. I will take the clear lead back and goal-line option on a top offense to score any day of the week.

Bet: Stefon Diggs under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u

If you followed me at all last year, you know my feelings on Stefon Diggs. This one shouldn’t come as a surprise.

There are those who believe Diggs will be the Texans’ WR1. There are those who believe he will be their WR2. And there are those who believe he will be the WR3. I think you know where I stand.

From Week 10 onward, Diggs played 10 games, including the playoffs. He didn’t reach 60 receiving yards in eight of them.

This one is not about the matchup — it’s about his role on the team. I do think there’s a chance Diggs gets a nice dose of targets, but I expect them to be close to the line of scrimmage. Sure, he could break a tackle and bust off a big play, which would make this a loss. But if Diggs is a glorified Jarvis Landry, which is what I expect him to be, he could rack up 7-8 receptions and still not get to 60 yards.

The best line available now is 59.5 yards, which is still very bettable.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Bet: Tony Pollard over 9.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u

This is a really low number for one of the better receiving backs in the league. It appears sportsbooks are projecting Tyjae Spears to be the primary receiving back. I choose to believe what Titans coaches have told us all offseason: both backs are interchangeable and will do everything. Even the depth chart lists them both as RB1.

Pollard surpassed this number in 10 out of 17 games last season. On the Titans, playing behind Derrick Henry, Spears also hit this 10 of 17 games last year.

The Titans are widely expected to be more pass-heavy. Although Will Levis likes to push the ball downfield, there will be instances where he has to check it down. Pollard can get there on just one reception.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Bet: Devin Singletary anytime touchdown (+165 at DraftKings) 0.5u

The fantasy football universe is all-abuzz about rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. It makes sense. Devin Singletary is just a guy. Tracy can easily unseat the starter at some point this season, but it’s not happening in Week 1.

I will take it a step further: I expect Singletary to be a true bellcow, playing all three downs. In the preseason, Singletary was the clear goal-line back. I would be stunned if he wasn’t in that role to start the season.

The Giants do not project to be a great offense, but the Vikings were a bottom-10 defense last season. I don’t expect the Giants to get shut out. If they get near the goal line, there’s a very good chance Singletary gets multiple opportunities.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Bet: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+200 at FanDuel) 0.5u

This one is purely based on odds. FanDuel is hanging a bad line here. This is no better than +165 anywhere else.

Najee Harris is the lead back and clear goal line back for the Steelers. He had 47 red zone touches last season, eighth in the league. He’s scored 10, 10, and 8 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. We should not be getting the lead and goal line back on a run-first team at +200 to score.

Bet: Kirk Cousins under 4.5 rushing yards (-140 at Bet365) 1u

I don’t like to lay -140. However, I don’t think Kirk Cousins has any interest in running at all this season. For the truly immobile quarterbacks, we often see their rushing yardage lines at 0.5. If Cousins does scramble, it’s very possible he only gets a yard or two, allowing us to stay under here.

Cousins is set to play in his first game since tearing his Achilles. With an abundance of weapons at his disposal, he is unlikely to be in a position where he has to scramble.

Bet: Drake London 40+ receiving yards parlayed with Jameson Williams under 3.5 receptions (+108 at FanDuel) 1u

This one isn’t overly complicated. Drake London is almost certainly getting to 40 receiving yards. It was a good line compared to the rest of the market to avoid paying heavy juice on Jameson Williams’ receptions under.

Bet: Christian Watson under 3.5 receptions parlayed with Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 receptions (+164 at DraftKings) 0.5u

They say Arthur Smith is good for tight ends. I agree. He’s good for tight ends … emphasis on the plural. He is not good for any one specific tight end. Just ask Kyle Pitts.

Last season, Pat Freiermuth took a huge step back in an offense where he was the clear third option in the passing game, and sometimes even the second. He caught more than three passes just once all season (12 games).

In the preseason, no coach played starters more than Mike Tomlin. We got to see plenty of what this rotation looks like. This sure looks like a committee with Darnell Washington and MyCole Pruitt. If the ‘Muth is only a 60% snap share guy, he’s going to have a difficult time commanding enough targets to reach four receptions.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Bet: Javonte Williams anytime touchdown (+215 at DraftKings) 0.5u

The books were very confused when it came to touchdown props. Javonte Williams is the clear lead back for the Broncos. Jaleel McLaughlin may take passing-down work, but that’s not a concern for Williams’ scoring chances.

Williams was ninth in the league with 46 red-zone touches last season. This year’s Broncos should be better offensively, as Bo Nix provides an upgrade over Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season. We are getting +215 odds on an NFL team’s goal-line back to score. Sign me up.

This line no longer exists, but it is still bettable at +200 on DraftKings or FanDuel.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Bet: Zamir White anytime touchdown (+235 at DraftKings) 0.5u

I apologize in advance as this line is completely cooked. The best you can do is +165 at DraftKings. For what it’s worth, I still think those odds are better than they should be.

Zamir White averaged 21 carries per game in the four games he started last season. While he only scored one touchdown, he was the unquestioned goal-line back. The one game in which White scored happened to be against the Chargers. In that game, the Raiders scored 63 points.

The Chargers allowed the seventh-most rushing touchdowns last season. These odds should be closer to even money.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bet: Zach Ertz longest reception under 13.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u

Zach Ertz is just shy of his 34th birthday. His yards per reception has declined each of the past three seasons, bottoming out at 6.9 last year. He averaged a paltry 1.1 yards after the catch per target.

Ertz now joins the Commanders where he will likely be the fourth- or fifth-best option in the passing game. He’s playing with a rookie mobile quarterback in Jayden Daniels.

Of Ertz’s 25 receptions last season, a total of three went for 14+ yards. He is nothing more than a check-down guy who is no threat after the catch at this stage in his career.

Bet: Brian Robinson Jr. over 37.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings) 1u

This is another one of those lines that jumped off the page when I saw it. It’s just way too low for a clear RB1. Brian Robinson Jr. is the Commanders’ lead back. Austin Ekeler is a satellite back who will likely only see a handful of carries per game.

Robinson can be the most inefficient back ever and still volume his way to 40 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry on 13 carries.

While this line quickly disappeared, you can still get 40.5 yards on DraftKings. I would be willing to bet that.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush over 15.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Hello, my old friend. We meet again. Well, I shouldn’t say “old.” There’s nothing old about Jahmyr Gibbs. But this is a well we went back to many, many times last season. The books just didn’t seem to grasp that Gibbs is a splash play waiting to happen.

Gibbs carried the ball 182 times last season — 15 of those attempts went for at least 17 yards. That’s 8.2%, which was the second-highest rate in the league. This is a bet on talent against a defense that no longer has the greatest defensive player of all time, Aaron Donald, clogging up the lane.

Bet: Blake Corum under 6.5 rush attempts (-106 at FanDuel)

How much do we believe Sean McVay really wants to reduce Kyren Williams’ workload? I buy it to an extent, but seven carries for a backup running back is a lot.

This game has the highest total of the week at 50.5. I’m expecting both teams to lean more on the pass in what should be a fun, back-and-forth affair. I struggle to see there being room for Blake Corum, in his first career game, to earn seven rush attempts.

Bet: Drake London 40+ receiving yards parlayed with Jameson Williams under 3.5 receptions (+108 at FanDuel) 1u

I do not buy that Williams is the WR2 of this team. I believe that man will be Kalif Raymond. That puts Williams as the fifth option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Gibbs, and Raymond.

Even if we throw out Williams’ rookie year, it’s not a pretty track record. Last year, he played 12 games. Williams caught more than two passes in just two of them. If we include his three playoff games, nothing changes.

This is a bet on the unknown. Right now, there is uncertainty about whether Williams is a talented player who was held back by unfortunate circumstances (ACL tear/gambling suspension) or whether he’s overrated (my position). I am betting on the latter.

Bet: Kalif Raymond over 1.5 receptions (-130 at DraftKings) 1u

This is a bit correlated to the Jameson Williams receptions under, but it can win even if I’m wrong about Williams’ role. I expect Kalif Raymond on the field in three-receiver sets and about half of two-receiver sets.

Raymond’s been around for a while and has never been more than a role player. However, he’s set for his largest role of his career.

In a game that should feature 35+ pass attempts from both teams, Jared Goff can’t throw every pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, or Jahmyr Gibbs. Raymond should see at least 3-4 targets. Last season, he caught at least two passes in 11 out of 17 regular season games, including every game where he played at least 35% of the snaps. I think he reaches that in this one.