The quarterback position isn’t just the most important spot on the field, it might be the most important position in all of sports. The 4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are in the thick of the AFC playoff race, but does Justin Fields give them the best chance to realize their potential? Would a move to Russell Wilson raise Pittsburgh’s ceiling? Lower its floor? Both?
People of the jury, I am ready to present the case for both quarterbacks and allow you to agree or disagree with my final decision.
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Debate
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
The Steelers will play a pair of prime-time games before going on bye in Week 9. They’ve found success against the lighter part of their schedule, but in order to qualify for the postseason, Pittsburgh will have to navigate some difficult stretches:
- Week 7 vs. New York Jets (SNF)
- Week 8 vs. New York Giants (MNF)
- Week 9 BYE
- Week 10 at Washington Commanders
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns (TNF)
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Wednesday, Christmas)
- Week 18 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
While Fields and Wilson are different in many ways, the most recent versions of them are similar…eerily similar.
2023 Russell Wilson
- 66.4% completion percentage
- 7.1 air yards per throw
- 6.9 yards per attempt
- 53.5% quick throw rate
2024 Justin Fields
- 66.3% completion percentage
- 7.5 air yards per throw
- 6.9 yards per attempt
- 53.8% quick throw rate
So what are the Steelers going to do? Here’s the case for and against both options.
The Case For and Against Justin Fields
Fields was the No. 11 overall pick in 2021 and spent three seasons with the Chicago Bears. He gets the benefit of the doubt of being 10 years younger than Wilson.
Fields is easily on a career pace in completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception rate for an offense that owns the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the league. Given the talent of Pittsburgh’s defense, not losing the game holds significant value.
The Steelers’ offense isn’t lighting up scoreboards, but they’ve been a bit more productive than you’d assume. Did you know that they are scoring on a higher percentage of drives this season than the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, and Houston Texans?
In the simplest of arguments, the Steelers were projected for eight wins and are currently pacing for over 11. It’s easy to stick with what’s paid off in wins until it doesn’t, but HC Mike Tomlin is the type of forward-thinking coach who has made a living of being ahead of the curve in terms of decision-making, and his current signal-caller has given him reasons for concern.
Fields’ deep-completion percentage has declined each season of his career, and, eventually, in 2024, chunk plays are going to need to be an option for Pittsburgh to truly overachieve. In terms of trying to flip the QB script at the perfect time, we’ve already seen regression that could undo this season with time.
Fields’ Splits
- Weeks 1-4: 70.6% complete and 7.6 yards per attempt
- Weeks 5-6: 56.9% complete and 5.4 yards per attempt
The Case For and Against Russell Wilson
A third-round pick in 2012, Wilson spent a decade with the Seahawks, winning a Super Bowl title in the process before struggling over the past two years to a 13-21 record with the Denver Broncos.
With over 6,000 pass attempts on his NFL résumé, Wilson brings with him a level of professionalism that meshes with this organization’s win-now mindset. His best might not be near that of Fields, but Wilson’s floor is much higher, and given how this team is built, that’s appealing.
The perfect throw from Russ. And Sutton's left foot placement.
Precision from the @Broncos duo. pic.twitter.com/assFSJydy3
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2023
I mentioned the similar statistical profiles of these two, but I left one stat out.
Last season, Wilson posted a 99.5 passer rating when under pressure, a strong number that dwarfs what Fields has done through six weeks this season (67.0). Pittsburgh owns the worst offensive line in the league in terms of pressure rate against when blitzed this season, a weakness that makes Wilson’s edge that much more valuable.
Of course, it’s not that easy. Wilson averaged under 7.0 yards per pass for the first time in his career in 2023, and this version of the Steelers isn’t exactly loaded with playmakers who will help elevate his play. Wilson has also shown some decline in basic decision-making, something that once it leaves a QB, it rarely returns.
Interception Rate When Not Pressured
- 2019-21: 1.3%
- 2022-23: 2.2%
Pittsburgh’s defense is good enough to put this team in position to win. However, turnovers can negate that strength by way of short fields and defensive scores.
The Final Decision
What is the goal of the season? Is it to post a winning record? Win a playoff game? Try to run hot and win a Super Bowl?
My guess is the last option. Do I think that’s a likely outcome? Of course not; The Steelers are +4000 for a reason, but that’s how this organization under this coach is programmed to act.
If you’re going to aim to win it all, that means, at some point, knocking off the two-time reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes has been beaten 11 times since we flipped the calendar to 2022, and 10 of them have been decided by a single possession.
What does that mean? For me, it means you better feel good about your quarterback in crunch time.
Not only does Wilson have 50 career games that were close (plus-or-minus three points) entering the fourth quarter to Fields’ seven, but he’s been the safer option in those games with a 2.3 touchdown-to-interception rate (Fields: 1.0).
I think it’s possible we’ve already seen the best Fields has to offer, and it resulted in clearing 20 points just twice in their first six weeks. That’s not to say that we know Wilson will unlock levels of upside that we’ve yet to see, but we don’t know that he won’t.
Arthur Smith is an easy target — are we just going to pretend like his time in Tennessee with a veteran QB (Ryan Tannehill) didn’t happen?
2019-20 Titan Ranks
- 1st in offensive touchdowns
- 1st in red-zone efficiency
- 2nd in yards per play
- 4th in offensive success rate
If I’m the Steelers, I’m exploring what a Wilson-led offense looks like, understanding that the scoring environment has more room to improve from what we’ve seen through six weeks than regress.