Sunday afternoon’s Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders matchup has a lot riding on it, especially for the 2-4 Eagles. The Raiders’ victory last week gave them some breathing room at 4-2 atop the AFC West. However, with strong competition in the division, this is a matchup in which they need to come away with a victory.
Philadelphia Eagles offense vs. Las Vegas Raiders defense
The Eagles’ offense has been a conundrum, wrapped in an enigma, inside a puzzle this season. The last two weeks have seen them pass for a combined 295 yards while getting just 191 yards from the running game. Incredibly, they managed to go 1-1 in those two games.
Jalen Hurts vs. Raiders defense
Jalen Hurts’ performance as a passer the last two weeks had been abject. On a combined 63 pass attempts, he has completed 34 passes (54%) for 313 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. In those two games, Hurts posted his lowest grades of the season according to Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric.
Those low OVM grades indicate that Hurts was not providing value to the offense himself and was not simply being let down by the players around him. However, Hurts has added value for the Eagles with his running ability. In the past two weeks, he has scored 4 rushing touchdowns while adding 74 yards on 19 rushing attempts.
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The lack of consistency from Hurts in the passing game is infuriating, but his ability to run the ball is keeping the Eagles in games. However, while this should be a game Philadelphia can win against the Raiders, they are going to need more from Hurts’ arm than they have had in the last two weeks.
For all the question marks surrounding the Raiders’ defense entering the season, they have impressed. Only one team is allowing fewer net yards per pass attempt than Las Vegas’ 5.5. The problem for them is that their run defense has been susceptible — adding Hurts to the equation will only exacerbate that problem.
Advantage:Â Push — thanks to the value Hurts can bring with his legs.
Eagles skill players vs. Raiders secondary
The trade of Zach Ertz — Philadelphia’s second-most targeted skill position player this year — is somewhat telling in terms of where Philadelphia believes they are as a team. Meanwhile, fellow tight end, Dallas Goedert has been productive with 15 receptions on 19 targets for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns. But he has not been featured enough.
DeVonta Smith is clearly the best receiver on this team, but his chemistry with Hurts is not yet fully developed. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins provide different elements to Philadelphia’s offense. However, neither is a weapon that the Raiders’ defense will fear.
Las Vegas’ defense sits around the league average in terms of the completion rate allowed (66.2%). However, they have not allowed teams to significantly damage them on those receptions. Their 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 3.9% touchdown rate both rank as top-10 numbers.
On an individual player basis, Casey Hayward Jr. has been extremely impressive for the Raiders this year. He has allowed just 9 completions on 21 targets for 68 yards. The absence of the impressive Trayvon Mullen will hurt Las Vegas this week as either Amik Robertson or Nate Hobbs is expected to start.
On 30 targets, Hobbs has allowed 27 completions for 164 yards. He has not allowed a touchdown but is struggling to prevent passes from being completed this season. Robertson has allowed a 76.5% completion rate and has given up 3 touchdowns on just 17 targets.
The Eagles’ receivers, along with Goedert, should be able to have success away from Hayward in Week 7. However, Hayward should be able to keep one side of the field in check.
Advantage:Â Push
Eagles offensive line vs. Raiders defensive line
The Eagles’ offensive line has overall been a below-average unit this year. The mobility of Hurts has also hidden some of their deficiencies this season. When Philadelphia has tried to run the ball, they have had some success, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. However, their 22 run plays per game are the fourth-fewest in the league.
Coming into the year, the key was always going to be the right side of the line. Given the loss of Brandon Brooks (and Lane Johnson also missing time), it is understandable they have struggled. It looks as though Johnson will be back at RT against the Raiders, which will be a timely boost.
The Raiders’ defensive line has been a below-average unit run blocking, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt (26th). However, they have been slightly above average in terms of rushing the passer. Their 26.2% pressure rate and 6.6% sack rate are both just above the league average in 2021.
Overall, this is probably a push between these two units. But if the Eagles can establish a ground game, they could find success, especially if Johnson rebounds after missing three straight games.
Advantage:Â Push
Las Vegas Raiders offense vs. Philadelphia Eagles defense
The Raiders offense has very much been two separate stories. The passing game has performed above average, while the run game has struggled badly outside of finding the end zone.
Derek Carr vs. Eagles defense
For the most part, Derek Carr has stepped up for the Raiders this year. He ranks second in the league for passing yards while completing 64.2% of his passes. According to PFN’s OVM, Carr is providing slightly above average value to the offense around him. When looking at his passing rating, he is not doing anything above the expected, but the results have been good for the most part.
This matchup with the Eagles could provide Carr with a stern test. Philadelphia is allowing an eighth-best 6.0 net passing yards per attempt this season. However, they have not been particularly proficient at forcing turnovers, ranking 11th in interceptions and 29th in forced fumbles.
The Eagles defense has also allowed plenty of cheap completions at a rate of 71.5% (fourth-highest in 2021). However, at under 7.0 yards per pass attempt, those completions have not been doing a huge amount of damage. Can Carr continue to complete passes at an effective rate, or will the Eagles defense be able to stifle him? The answer to that could be the factor that decides this game.
Advantage:Â Push
Raiders skill players vs. Eagles secondary
Henry Ruggs being available on Sunday will be a huge relief to the Raiders. While Ruggs ranks third on the team in targets, his 22.3 yards per reception adds a dynamic element to the Las Vegas roster. It’s the same situation for Bryan Edwards, who had been limited in practice Wednesday.
With those two acting as deep threats, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are free to make plays underneath for the Raiders. Waller and Renfrow have combined for 64 receptions on 96 targets for 719 passing yards and 4 touchdowns.
The Eagles cornerbacks have struggled at times this year. Steven Nelson has the lowest completion rate allowed at 60.6% but has given up 12.7 yards per completion and 2 touchdowns. Avonte Maddox and Darius Slay are both allowing completions on more than two-thirds of their targets but have not allowed as many receiving yards per completion as Nelson.
How the Eagles’ secondary contains the Raiders’ deep threats will be fascinating in this game. If they go too soft, Renfrow and Waller will pull them apart on the underneath routes. The battle between the Raiders’ receivers and Eagles’ secondary is a must-watch element of this game.
Advantage:Â Raiders (marginally)
Raiders offensive line vs. Eagles defensive line
The Raiders’ offensive line has really struggled this year in the run game. Las Vegas is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush attempt with none of their backs able to get much traction. Therefore, facing an above-average defense line in the Eagles (4.1 rushing yards per attempt) is less than ideal.
Las Vegas’ offensive line has had more success pass blocking, but has not been significantly better. Football Outsiders’ offensive line metrics have the Raiders marginally below average in terms of adjusted sack rate this season.
Fortunately for the Raiders, the Eagles’ pass rush has — for the most part — been a below-average unit as well. They rank in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate (22.4%), hurry rate (8.5%), and sack rate (5.2%).
If the Raiders’ line can give Carr time and allow the deep routes to develop, they can attack this defense. However, if the Eagles’ pass rush can force quick passes, they may be able to contain the Las Vegas’ passing attack.
Advantage:Â Push
Betting line and game prediction
This game is extremely balanced between the two sides. When you look at the Raiders’ 4-2 record compared to the Eagles’ 2-4 mark, you may think a 2.5-point spread for the home team is too low. However, this game is to come down to small elements within the contest itself.
Will the Raiders’ deep threats break down an Eagles secondary that has been good at keeping the play in front of them? Can the Eagles’ passing weapons exploit the Raiders’ concerns at cornerback opposite Casey Hayward? Will the Eagles commit to the run game and tire the Raiders’ defense out?
Those three elements are in the balance entering this game. Then, there is a concern over whether the emotion of the past couple of weeks catches up to the Raiders this week. In an afternoon slate where the other three games have double-digit spreads, this has the makings of a must-watch encounter in Las Vegas.
Eagles vs. Raiders Prediction: Raiders 27, Eagles 26
