The Philadelphia Eagles will fly down south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. Both teams currently sit at 2-1 through the first three weeks of the regular season and will be battling for a win to stay above .500 on Sunday.
While the Eagles escaped with a win over the New Orleans Saints last week, the Buccaneers lost embarrassingly to the Denver Broncos. Now the Buccaneers will be looking to bounce back against the Eagles in Week 4.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Preview
The Buccaneers hold a one-game lead over the Eagles in all-time head-to-head matchups, with a 12-11 record. However, Tampa Bay has dominated Philadelphia over the last decade. The Buccaneers have won five of their last six matchups with the Eagles, dating back to 2015.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has been a thorn in the side of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts since he became a full-time starter in 2021. Hurts is 1-3 against the Buccaneers in his NFL career, as he continues to struggle against Bowles’ blitz-heavy defense.
Here is my game prediction, five crucial stats, three players to watch, and more.
5 Crucial Stats for Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Stat: Hurts has thrown an interception in seven straight regular season games, the longest streak by an NFC QB since former Eagles QB Nick Foles across three seasons (2018-20).
Analysis: Hurts needs to take better care of the football, it’s honestly that simple. As one of the top 10 highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, the Eagles need Hurts to be efficient and reliable. While he was able to pull Philadelphia out of the hole in Week 3, that isn’t a sustainable and successful formula to win games moving forward.
Stat:The Bucs are the only team yet to allow a passing TD so far, tied with the 2003 team for the longest streak to begin a season in franchise history. The 2019 New England Patriots are the only team in the last 15 seasons not to allow a passing TD in their first four games (did so in the first five games).
Analysis: Although the Bucs have yet to allow a passing TD this season, they are allowing teams to move the ball through the air. Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most passing yards in the NFL. Their run defense is porous, and teams have been able to have their way with the Bucs on the ground.
Stat: The Eagles remain the only offense yet to score a first-quarter point this season in the NFL. Only once over the past six seasons has a team failed to score a first-quarter point through three weeks and make the playoffs (2021 Steelers).
Analysis: Philadelphia has had chances to score points in the first quarter and break this embarrassing streak, yet Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has passed up several field goal attempts.
After the Bucs allowed the Broncos to score 14 points in the first quarter last week, Sunday could be the day that the Eagles put an end to this atrocious start to the regular season.
Stat: The Eagles have created pressure on 41.1% of opponent dropbacks, up from 36% last season — Baker Mayfield has thrown an interception AND been sacked at least five times in each of the past two weeks.
Analysis: Philadelphia’s pass rush has struggled to sack the quarterback through the first three games of the regular season. While the Eagles have a high pressure rate, they have recorded just four sacks in three games.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line has struggled mightily to start the regular season, and this could be the week that Philadelphia’s pass rush wakes up. After a dominant performance in Week 3, Jalen Carter could have another monstrous performance on Sunday.
Stat: After allowing 6.4 yards per rush in the first two games, the Eagles held the Saints to 3.1 yards per rush, their best mark since Week 3 of last season vs. Tampa Bay. Philadelphia accumulated 12.2 EPA in run defense, the team’s most in a game since 2020.
Analysis: Many expected Rachaad White to lead Tampa Bay’s backfield, yet he has underwhelmed and averaged just 2.1 yards per rushing attempt this season.
Rookie running back Bucky Irving will test Philadelphia’s run defense, as he has provided a spark for the Bucs while averaging an impressive 6.2 yards per rushing attempt.
Players To Watch During Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers
The Bucs dug themselves in a hole too early against the Broncos and were unable to establish their rushing attack in Week 3. One of the only bright spots for Tampa Bay last week was the performance of Irving, who gained 70 rushing yards on just nine carries.
Although Philadelphia’s run defense was stout against the Saints, the Bucs would be wise to test the team’s defensive front once again. Irving is an explosive runner who is a threat to score any time that he touches the ball. Week 4 could be the first game in which Irving records double-digit carries in his NFL career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie RB Bucky Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per rush.
Here's a look at how he's gotten there: pic.twitter.com/POxUIzErEs
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2024
Parris Campbell, WR, Eagles
The Eagles have ruled out DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown is questionable to play in Week 4. Therefore, Philadelphia will likely use Parris Campbell’s final practice squad elevation available against the Buccaneers. Campbell should be in a position to make the most of a massive opportunity in Tampa.
Campbell stepped in once Britain Covey went down in Week 3 and hauled in both of his targets from Hurts against the Saints. While many expect Jahan Dotson to be the primary target at wide receiver for Hurts in Week 4, I believe Campbell will have a surprisingly big role against the Bucs.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
The Bucs will present a much different challenge than the Saints in Week 3. Tampa Bay’s offense primarily operates out of 11 personnel, meaning the Eagles will likely have to match with more nickel formations than they utilized in New Orleans.
After playing just 29 snaps in Week 3, Avonte Maddox will be put to the test in Tampa Bay. According to TruMedia, Chris Godwin has played 59.8% of his snaps in the slot in 2024. He is also Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, as he leads the Bucs in both targets (25) and receptions (21).
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
While the Eagles might be without several key starters on offense, Philadelphia still has more than enough talent to win against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will be dealing with its own injuries, as star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has already been ruled out.
If Hurts can avoid turning the ball over, the Eagles should be able to have their way with the Buccaneers’ struggling run defense. Philadelphia should feed Saquon Barkley early and often to establish the ground game and dominate time of possession.
Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is going to have to make a tough decision in Week 4. Philadelphia’s run defense dominated last week, mostly due to the team’s ability to stay in base defense against the Saints.
Yet the Bucs present a different situation, as they primarily operate out of 11 personnel. Therefore, Fangio will have to decide if he wants to stay in base defense or risk getting gashed on the ground with nickel formations. It could be a long day for the Eagles if Irving gets going on the ground and Fangio can’t lean on five-man fronts in Week 4.
Ultimately, I believe Hurts will be able to avoid any costly mistakes and the Eagles will ride Barkley to victory in Tampa Bay. The Eagles will move to 3-1 and head into a much-needed bye week in Week 5 before hosting the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 6.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Buccaneers 17