The Philadelphia Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth, so they know they’ll at least get the chance to make another run at the Super Bowl. But Jalen Hurts and Co. have more work to do in Week 17, when they’ll face the Arizona Cardinals in a game with significant implications for the Eagles’ standing within the NFC playoff picture.
Philadelphia has little room for error in the NFC East following the Dallas Cowboys’ Saturday night win over the Detroit Lions, while the Eagles will need some help to catch the San Francisco 49ers in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Let’s run through all of Philadelphia’s playoff scenarios.
Eagles Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After Week 17’s Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate, the Eagles are the No. 5 seed in the NFC after their shocking loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Because Philadelphia lost and the San Francisco 49ers won, the Eagles can no longer earn the conference’s top seed.
Saturday Night Football Update
Cowboys (11-5) defeated Lions (11-5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Cardinals (4-12) defeated Eagles (11-5)
49ers (12-4) defeated Commanders (4-12)
Cardinals (4-12) defeated Eagles (11-5)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Eagles entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Scenarios for Winning the NFC East?
The Eagles (11-4) can no longer clinch the NFC East in Week 17. Because the Cowboys (11-5) defeated the Lions on Saturday, Dallas will stay alive for the division title heading into the season-regular season finale.
Still, Philadelphia controls its own destiny with respect to winning its second straight division title. If the Eagles beat the Cardinals on Sunday and the New York Giants in Week 18, they will finish with 13 wins, a mark the Cowboys cannot match.
However, if Philadelphia loses one of its final two games while Dallas takes down the Washington Commanders in Week 18, the Cowboys will win the division.
Because both clubs would finish with 12-5 records, the identity of the NFC East champion would be determined by NFL playoff tiebreakers. The Eagles and the Cowboys have already split their season series, so the league would move on to the next tiebreaker.
Regardless of whether Philadelphia’s hypothetical sole loss comes to the Cardinals in Week or the Giants in Week 18, Dallas would win the division if it beats the Commanders next week.
Whether because of their weaker division record or conference mark, the Eagles would not be able to win a tiebreaker over the Cowboys.
MORE: Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart
To recap, Philadelphia will win the NFC East by going 2-0 over the next two weeks. If the Birds go 1-1, they’ll need Dallas to lose to Washington in Week 18.
And if the unthinkable happens and the Eagles go 0-2 while the Cowboys lose to the Commanders? Philadelphia would cede the division title to Dallas, which would win a conference record tiebreaker.
Can the Eagles Still Clinch the NFC No. 1 Seed?
The Eagles’ chances of grabbing the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the second year in a row received a massive boost in Week 16 when the 49ers lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, dropping San Francisco’s record to 11-4.
Although the 49ers and Eagles have identical records heading into Week 17, San Francisco is still No. 1 in the NFC standings, thanks to its head-to-head victory in Week 13.
That win will also give the 49ers a tiebreaker that will come in handy at the end of the season. Philadelphia cannot finish with the same record as San Francisco and earn the top seed in the conference.
The Eagles must finish with at least one more win than the 49ers. As such, Philadelphia’s best path to a first-round playoff bye is winning out while hoping San Francisco is upset by either the Washington Commanders in Week 17 or the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18.
Technically, the Eagles could drop a game and still claim the No. 1 seed if the 49ers lose out. But Philadelphia and San Francisco would be leaving the door open for Dallas or Detroit to take over the top spot in the standings in that scenario.
Winning out is the name of the game for the Eagles, both in the NFC East race and in the No. 1 seed battle. Now that the Lions have lost at least one of their final two, Philadelphia knows it cannot finish any power than the No. 2 seed if it wins each of its last two contests.
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