The Green Bay Packers are currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC at 9-4. Their only non-NFC North loss has been to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. This is a very good team that is coached well and has some playoff experience from last year despite being very young.
The Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, are in Year 1 of the Mike Macdonald era and are flourishing. At 8-5, they have a slight edge atop the NFC West and are currently in possession of the No. 3 seed. With how tight the division and the Wild Card race are, a win here is paramount to Seattle getting in. But after last week’s win over Arizona, the Seahawks’ odds of winning the NFC West rose to 48.3%, according to PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor.
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Packers -2.5 - Moneyline
Packers (-135); Seahawks (+114) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m ET - Location
Lumen Field
Packers vs. Seahawks Preview and Prediction
Jordan Love and the Packers offense rank ninth in EPA (expected points added) per play this season, according to TruMedia. This comes from being one of the most explosive offenses in football, ranking third and fourth in passing and rushing explosive play rate, respectively. However, this is slightly worrisome with their offensive success rate only ranking 15th.
Luckily for the Packers, explosive plays are far more predictive of future offensive success. Unfortunately, Green Bay struggles against the blitz (ranks fifth in EPA per play when not blitzed and 27th when blitzed). The offensive line has given up the fourth-fewest quick pressures per dropback in the NFL.
This isn’t a result of taking sacks when being blitzed, as the Packers’ sack percentage actually goes down when blitzed, and their time to throw is quicker. The real issue comes from turnovers.
Green Bay has the fifth-least EPA lost to turnovers on non-blitzing plays but is 31st on blitzes. The Packers complete just 57.4% of their passes (27th) for nine touchdowns and five interceptions (second-most) against the blitz.
Seattle’s defense currently ranks eighth in defensive EPA per play and ninth in defensive turnover EPA. Macdonald has done a splendid job scheming them up, ranking seventh in my unpredictability score, which measures the unpredictability of a defensive scheme based on how varied they make their coverages.
The Seahawks’ defense performs well in most phases of the game, ranking 10th in pressure generated and sixth in PFF’s coverage grade. Although the defense blitzes the 24th most in the NFL, games against the 49ers, Giants, Lions, and Broncos showed that it can and will blitz when needed.
Seattle’s defense and Green Bay’s offense are the clear strengths of each team. The true story of this game will be whether the Seahawks can score on the Packers’ defense.
Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive EPA per play but 29th in defensive success rate. Similar to the offense, they generate several turnovers but lack the down-to-down consistency. They face a Seahawks offense pretty average all around.
Pressure rate for Seattle’s offensive line is nothing to write home about. It doesn’t excel or struggle against the blitz or under pressure. The Seahawks rank 20th in EPA lost to turnovers, which is slightly below average. As you would expect from a team that has DK Metcalf, they are significantly better against man than zone.
The last aspect to examine is game script. With an EDP that ranks third when trailing and Seattle’s defense ranking ninth when leading, this matchup slightly favors Green Bay. What makes this more difficult is that the Packers’ defense ranks 20th when trailing while the Seahawks’ offense ranks 14th with a lead.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 18th in EDP when leading, compared to a Seattle offense ranked 11th when trailing. The Packers’ offense ranks 15th with a lead versus the Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 14th when trailing. A slight edge goes to Seattle here.
Overall, this is another game where the teams are very competitive and match up stylistically. Seattle will need to blitz more often than usual to stop Green Bay’s offense, and the Packers have to force turnovers to maintain an edge against an average Seahawks offense. Give me the Packers in a close one.
My Pick: Packers -2.5