If you’re a fantasy manager and looking to the Houston Texans for wide receivers to put in your lineup, you certainly have a plethora of choices. Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell may be the best trio of wide receivers of any team in the league.
The Texans also boast a quarterback (C.J. Stroud) coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons in NFL history, at any position. But which of those three wide receivers is the best choice to start in Sunday’s season opener at the Indianapolis Colts?
Here are the fantasy football outlooks for Collins, Diggs, and Dell heading into Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Nico Collins
Collins enters this season as the WR14 in Pro Football Network’s consensus fantasy football rankings. He is coming off one of the better seasons by any wide receiver in 2023.
Collins, who ranked seventh among wide receivers in fantasy scoring (17.4 fantasy points per game), had career highs in receptions (80), yards (1,297) and touchdowns (8). But two of his statistics that surely have special appeal to fantasy managers are his yards per reception (16.2) and catch percentage (73.4%).
And Collins certainly enjoyed playing the Colts last season. In two games vs. Indianapolis, Collins combined to catch 16 passes for 341 yards (21.3 yards per reception) and two scores, one in each game.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Stefon Diggs
Diggs is the WR29 in PFN’s consensus rankings, and is coming off yet another productive season. He topped 100 receptions (107) for the fourth straight campaign and over 1,000 receiving yards (1,183) for the sixth straight season.
For fantasy managers, however, these two stats are most encouraging.
Diggs had eight touchdown receptions last season, the sixth time in his last seven seasons he scored eight or more touchdowns. And in terms of fantasy scoring, Diggs averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game, the eighth straight season he averaged at least 14 fantasy points a game.
One number fantasy managers are probably looking at when it comes to Diggs is 31, as that’s the age he’ll turn in November.
Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Tank Dell
Dell is WR33 in PFN’s rankings. With the Texans loaded at the wide receiver position, along with the offseason acquisition of running back Joe Mixon, could Dell be in danger of being the odd man out when it comes to fantasy production?
Probably not. As a rookie last season, Dell was impressive, catching seven touchdowns in his first 10 games before a broken leg in Week 13 ended his season. Four of his seven touchdowns were from 20 or more yards away, and with a yards per reception average of 15.1, he figures to still be a prime target for Stroud this season.
Who Should I Start in Week 1?
According to Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer, Collins is projected to have the best game of these three Sunday. He is projected to finish with 14.2 fantasy points, with five receptions for 72 yards. That outproduces Diggs and Dell, although all are projected to reach double figures in fantasy points Sunday.
Diggs is projected to have four receptions for 49 yards and 11.3 fantasy points, while Dell is projected to have three catches for 44 yards and 10.3 fantasy points.
I agree with the optimizer in this matchup. All three have potential to have productive games Sunday, but Collins had such a good season in 2023, that it’s difficult for fantasy managers to pass on his production against the Colts.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for the Texans’ WRs in Week 1
Nico Collins: Collins is going to rank higher for me than for you most weeks – get used to it.
Collins was the second-most efficient receiver in yards per route run last season. Collins was the second-best receiver in terms of fantasy points over expectations last season. He gave us top-5 production at the position five times last season, a year in which he was working into his WR1 role with a rookie under center.
Now, his role is defined, and his QB is viewed as an MVP favorite and not an inexperienced prospect. I’ll step off my Collins soapbox, but the case is straightforward. As for this matchup, all he did was torch the Colts for 16 catches, 341 yards, and two touchdowns on his 18 targets.
The Colts were a bottom-10 team in defensive success rate, and they weren’t confident enough in the backend of their secondary to bring the heat and speed up opposing signal callers (third-lowest blitz rate). If you’re telling me that C.J. Stroud is going to be able to relax in the pocket in a game that is on my shortlist for bets when it comes to the highest-scoring contest of Week 1 – I’ll take my chances with his rising star.
You drafted Collins as a starter, and you’re starting him with confidence, There’s no news there. What I would caution against is the instinct to consider selling high should he post a big number – it won’t be the last time.
Stefon Diggs: Among the most interesting storylines of the first week (for that matter, the first month) of the season is the usage of Diggs. Will he be used as he was for the majority of his time in Buffalo? Will Houston elect to tier their receiver routes – Dell runs deep, Collins a mix of everything, and Diggs more shallow? Was the late-season decline in 2023 a blip on the radar or a red flag?
We will get those answers with time, and until then, he’s going to occupy my “you can Flex him, but he’s not a must-play” tier of receiver. Sorry for the long name and some fence-sitting, but I’m a straight shooter, and the honest truth is that we aren’t sure what his role is going to look like just yet.
Of course, I have my guesses. Last season, the Bills were beating their head against a wall with their WR1. Instead of adapting to what they saw on the field, they, more-or-less, kept his role the same and prayed the production would resurface. In the second half of the season, he didn’t stop running deeper routes (his aDOT dropped just 5.1%, well within the range of expected variance over a small sample) despite a lack of success on such plays.
- Weeks 1-10: 58.6% catch rate on deep passes
- Weeks 11-18: 20% catch rate on deep passes
We know Stroud wants to punish defenses down the field, and we know he had the weapons to do so before Diggs was acquired. If they elect to leverage his experience and route running, he could have a very successful season that mirrors something like peak Diontae Johnson. If not, we could be looking at a frustrating player who struggles to string productive weeks together on a weekly basis.
I have confidence that Houston will put the pieces together with time, but expecting another season with over 1,100 yards and at least eight touchdowns, something he did every season in Buffalo, is dangerous. Both he and Dell are going to live in that fringe top-30 range for me at the position until we have a better feel as to the quantity (and quality) of targets that both are seeing.
Tank Dell: I was one of the many who doubted Dell after a nice preseason performance last August, writing it off as simply a nice prospect making plays against inferior competition.
As it turns out, even elite competition had a problem all season with the third-round pick out of Houston (709 yards and seven scores in 11 games). Dell’s slight frame (165 pounds) didn’t stop him from earning 10+ targets on four occasions last season or averaging 15.1 yards per catch.
Given his development during the season, there is plenty of reason to think he can be an outlier at his size (DeVonta Smith is the only sub-170-pound receiver with a 100-target season over the past decade). That said, he did get injured to close last season, and he was held under 60 yards in six games a season ago.
His first impactful fantasy game did come against these Colts and it came basically with him winning on only one type of route.
Beginning to look at Week 1 #FantasyFootball matchups. Tank Dell gave us this route tree in Week 2 against Indy.
Doesn't look great, but he still produced 7-72-1.
He's better now and the Texans threaten in more ways. What stat line do you think he opens the season with? pic.twitter.com/9YcGYzqsN1
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024
I like what he brings to the table and am encouraged to watch him grow alongside Stroud, but with an uptick in target competition, I do have my concerns about labeling him as a locked-and-loaded WR2 from the jump this season.
You can plug him in as your Flex and embrace this game’s high point total. That said, I would still prefer the other light receiver (Smith) and would side with receivers like Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, or even Brian Thomas Jr. – receivers who I feel I have a better read for their Week 1 role.