Nico Collins left Sunday’s win over the Buffalo Bills after injuring his hamstring on a long touchdown pass from quarterback C.J. Stroud — and the Houston Texans’ WR1 might not be able to suit up for Week 6.
What’s the latest on Collins as the Texans prepare for next week’s matchup against the New England Patriots?
Nico Collins Injury Update Entering Week 6
After hauling in a 67-yard score late in the first quarter in Week 5, Collins immediately went into the blue medical tent along Houston’s sideline before leaving for the club’s locker room.
The Texans initially announced that Collins was questionable to return with a hamstring injury. However, he was formally ruled out at the start of the second half of Sunday’s game.
Houston originally considered Collins day-to-day. However, on Monday, head coach DeMeco Ryans suggested that Collins could be facing a longer return timetable.
“Nico, he’s in good spirits,” Ryans said. “With the hamstring, it tends to be a couple weeks for a hamstring, so we’ll evaluate that on a week-to-week basis.”
#Texans coach DeMeco Ryans on Nico Collins hamstring injury called him week to week @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/OgHTmkcv97
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 7, 2024
Collins was dealing with a hamstring injury heading into last week’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He popped up on the Texans’ injury report on Thursday and managed only a limited practice. However, Collins fully practiced that Friday and played in Week 4.
He was never listed on Houston’s injury report leading into Week 5.
Collins’ hamstring injury is not considered a long-term issue, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC2. However, Ryans’ comments strongly suggest that Collins won’t be available for Week 6.
Fantasy Implications of Collins’ Injury
It’s hard to overstate how significant a loss Collins would represent for the Texans.
His 567 receiving yards led the league. Collins is still 74 yards ahead of second-place Ja’Marr Chase despite missing 75% of Sunday’s game. The star Texans wideout ranks first among wide receivers in yards per route run (3.5) and seventh in on-field target share (29.1%).
Collins is lapping the NFL in explosive play rate. Through five games, 53.1% of his receptions have gone for 16+ yards.
No other WR with at least 30 targets has posted an explosive play on more than half of his catches. The Atlanta Falcons’ Darnell Mooney is No. 2, and he’s way down at 41.7%. Collins’ big-play rate is the best mark for a wideout from Weeks 1 through 5 since 2019.
Collins ranks 12th in targets per route, earning a look on 27.8% of his routes. Fellow wideouts Stefon Diggs (21.8%) and Tank Dell (14.9%) rank 39th and 79th, respectively.
Both of those rates will increase while Collins is sidelined. Dell, especially, should become startable for fantasy managers who might’ve been worried by his early-season production.
Houston kept playing 11 personnel at a 70% clip even after losing Collins on Sunday, so they’ll probably try to keep three wide receivers on the field moving forward.
Xavier Hutchinson, a 2023 sixth-round pick, played 48 offensive snaps in Week 5, his second-highest career total. He hauled in two catches for 31 yards against the Bills and might be your best bet for a random touchdown in Week 6.
Potential Fantasy Replacements for Collins
While you won’t be able to find a one-for-one replacement for Collins on the waiver wire, let’s look at three options that could help fill in this week.
1) Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons (48% rostered on Yahoo)
Mooney is still available in just over half of Yahoo fantasy leagues. If he’s still out there after his blow-up Week 5 performance, Mooney is the best wide receiver who might be on the waiver wire and can help you overcome Collins’ loss.
Mooney hauled in nine of 16 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons’ win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Thursday night. While Kirk Cousins won’t drop back 60 times in every game, the Carolina Panthers (Atlanta’s Week 6 opponent) rank third worst in EPA per pass allowed through five weeks.
2) Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys (7% rostered)
What a Week 5 it was for Tolbert, who set career highs in targets (10), catches (seven), and yards (87) while bringing in the game-winning TD in the Cowboys’ Week 5 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dallas placed fellow WR Brandin Cooks on injured reserve before last week’s game, so he’s out for at least three more weeks. Tolbert’s role as Dak Prescott’s WR2 is solidified. The Cowboys’ Week 6 contest against the Detroit Lions has a 52.5 total, tied for the highest on this week’s slate.
3) Darius Slayton, New York Giants (3% rostered)
With rookie WR Malik Nabers sidelined by a concussion in Week 5, Slayton earned the most targets (11) and catches (eight) from Daniel Jones in the Giants’ upset victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
Nabers should be able to return in Week 6. Slayton was already playing starter’s snaps, but his target share will be significantly reduced when Nabers comes back.
Still, New York is facing the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. They’re the fourth-worst passing defense by EPA per dropback and rank bottom 10 in pressure rate. Jones should have time to sit back and deliver.