NFL Week 3 picks and predictions: Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week and scores for every game

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Week 3 of the NFL season looks to be more competitive than Week 2, in which six of the 16 games were decided by double digits. As of Wednesday, there wasn’t a single two-score line on Caesars’ board. Will it play out that way? We explore it all in our NFL team’s Week 3 picks and predictions.

NFL Week 3 picks and predictions

Here are our Week 3 NFL picks and predictions from the NFL team here at Pro Football Network. This includes NFL Director Adam Beasley, NFL Analyst Dalton Miller, and NFL Analyst Dallas Robinson. Please note that all betting lines were as of Wednesday, Sept. 21.

Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

Betting line
Ravens -3; Ravens -155, Patriots +130; O/U 43.5

The Baltimore Ravens are one even slightly below-average quarter short of being considered one of the NFL’s five best teams. The New England Patriots are one bad play from being 0-2.

These teams might have the same record (1-1), but there’s an ocean of difference between them. That’s why the three points the Ravens are laying don’t scare us in the slightest.

Simply put, the Patriots don’t have the horses to run with Baltimore’s offense, and their defense isn’t as good as their rankings (fourth in yards, eighth in yards per play).

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The Patriots certainly looked great on the defensive side of the ball in Week 2, but that was against the Steelers — one of the worst offenses in football. And even still, they’re 25th in third-down defense through two weeks (48.3%) — and a respectable, but not spectacular, 12th in defensive EPA per play (-.02).

But just wait until they have to stop an as-good-as-ever Lamar Jackson and his Ravens offense, which leads the league in yards per play (7.0) and ranks fourth in scoring (31) and sixth in EPA per play (.17).

Jackson and the Ravens had outscored their opponents 59-23 through their season’s first seven quarters — and our view is that’s a better reflection of the team’s quality than the Dolphins’ four-touchdown fourth quarter in Week 2.

Plus, Mac Jones — whose career fourth-quarter completion percentage and yards per attempt are worse than his quarters 1 through 3 — doesn’t have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to.

Predictions
Beasley: Ravens 27, Patriots 13
Miller: Ravens 30, Patriots 17
Robinson: Ravens 28, Patriots 14

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

Betting line
Seahawks -2; Seahawks -125, Falcons +105; O/U 42

It’s probably safe to say that the Falcons are not nearly as bad as everyone expected entering the season. And it’s probably also safe to say that the Seahawks are every bit as bad as we thought — their Week 1 upset over the Broncos, notwithstanding.

The Falcons nearly pulled off massive upsets in each of their first two weeks (against the Saints and Rams) and have covered each game easily. Yes, they’re 0-2, but they’ve outperformed the point spread by an average of 5 1/4 points.

Marcus Mariota has been better than his conventional numbers (62.7% completions, 7 yards per attempt, and 80.5 rating). He ranks 11th in both QBR (59.4) and EPA per play (.12). He should have opportunities against a Seahawks pass defense that has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt.

But this pick is more of a reflection of our lack of confidence in Seattle than it is in our belief in Atlanta. The Seahawks are bottom four in points (12 per game), yards (234.5), rushing (56), yards per carry (3.4), and red zone efficiency (0%).

The Falcons aren’t great on defense. But they’re infinitely better than the Seahawks are on offense.

Predictions
Beasley: Falcons 16, Seahawks 10
Miller: Seahawks 20, Falcons 17
Robinson: Falcons 20, Seahawks 17

More NFL Week 3 picks and predictions

Beyond our lock and upset of the week, we’re looking at the other 14 games around the NFL in Week 3. We’ll give you some high-level season stats for each team, along with our predictions for each game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Betting line
Browns -4.5; Browns -210, Steelers +175; O/U 38.5

The Steelers will take on the Browns on Thursday Night Football from FirstEnergy Stadium. Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the referee for the game is Clay Martin. The Steelers lead the all-time series, 77-60-1, and the Steelers have won the past two games against the Browns.

The Steelers have scored an average of 18.5 points per game and gained an average of 255 yards of offense through two games. They’ve given up an average of 18.5 points on defense and 404 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Browns have scored an average of 28 points this season and have put up an average of 380 total yards on offense. They’ve given up an average of 27.5 points and 331.5 yards through two games.

Predictions
Beasley: Browns 13, Steelers 9
Miller: Steelers 20, Browns 14
Robinson: Browns 21, Steelers 17

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Betting line
Bills -6; Bills -260, Dolphins +210; O/U 52

The Bills will travel to Miami Gardens to take on the Dolphins on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium. The referee for the game is Alex Kemp. The Dolphins lead the all-time series, 60-51-1, but the Bills have won the last 7 matchups against Miami.

Buffalo has averaged 36 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 413.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 8.5 points given up on defense and 215 total yards.

Meanwhile, The Dolphins are averaging 31 points per game and 427 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 22.5 points per game and 372 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Miller: Bills 34, Dolphins 30
Robinson: Bills 31, Dolphins 24

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Betting line
Eagles -6.5; Eagles -292, Commanders +235; O/U 47

The Eagles will travel to take on the Commanders on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Ron Torbert. The Commanders lead the all-time series, 87-81-5, and the Eagles have won the past two games against Washington.

The Eagles have scored 31 points on the season and have gained 470 yards of offense. They’ve given up 21 points on defense and 325 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have scored 29 points this season and have put up an average of 393 yards per game on offense. They’ve given up an average of 29 points and 404 yards through two games.

Predictions
Beasley: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
Miller: Eagles 33, Commanders 27
Robinson: Eagles 30, Commanders 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

Betting line
Chiefs -6.5; Chiefs -285, Colts +228; O/U 50

The Chiefs will travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The referee for the game is Shawn Smith. The Colts lead the all-time series, 13-9, and they’ve won the last 3 of 4 matchups against the Chiefs.

Kansas City has averaged 35.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 403.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 22.5 points given up on defense and 341.5 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Colts are averaging 10 points per game and 367.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 22 points per game and 315 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Chiefs 35, Colts 20
Miller: Chiefs 34, Colts 20
Robinson: Chiefs 30, Colts 17

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Betting line
Saints -3; Saints -160, Panthers +135; O/U 40.5

The Saints will travel to take on the Panthers on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium. The referee for the game is Carl Cheffers. The Saints lead the all-time series, 28-26, and they’ve won the last 5 of 6 matchups against the Panthers.

New Orleans has averaged 18.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 346.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 23 points given up on defense and 338 total yards.

On the other side of the field, the Panthers are averaging 20 points per game and 268 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 22.5 points per game and 310 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Panthers 21, Saints 20
Miller: Saints 24, Panthers 14
Robinson: Saints 27, Panthers 20

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans

Betting line
Raiders -2; Raiders -130, Titans +110; O/U 45.5

The Raiders will travel to Nashville to take on the Titans on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Brad Rogers. The Raiders lead the all-time series, 26-21, and they’ve won the last 3 of 4 matchups against the Titans.

Las Vegas has averaged 21.0 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 322 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 26.5 points given up on defense and 384 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Titans are averaging 13.5 points per game and 273 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 31 points per game and 404 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Raiders 31, Titans 21
Miller: Raiders 31, Titans 28
Robinson: Raiders 24, Titans 17

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Betting line
Vikings -6; Vikings -250, Lions +205; O/U 52.5

The Lions will travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium. The referee for the game is John Hussey. The Vikings lead the all-time series, 79-40-2, and they’ve won the last 8 of 9 matchups against the Vikings.

Detroit has averaged 35.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 405.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 32.5 points given up on defense and 425.5 total yards.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 15 points per game and 329.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 15.5 points per game and 412 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Vikings 28, Lions 24
Miller: Vikings 31, Lions 28
Robinson: Vikings 30, Lions 22

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

Betting line
Bears -2.5; Bears -145, Texans +122; O/U 40

The Texans will travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field. The referee for the game is Clete Blakeman. The Texans lead the all-time series, 4-1, and they’ve won the last 4 of 5 matchups against the Bears.

Houston has averaged 14.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 266.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 18 points given up on defense and 433.5 total yards.

Meanwhile, Chicago is averaging 14.5 points per game and 216 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 18.5 points per game and 372.5 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Bears 23, Texans 16
Miller: Texans 21, Bears 17
Robinson: Texans 21, Bears 20

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets

Betting line
Bengals -5; Bengals -225, Jets +185; O/U 45

The Bengals will travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Jerome Boger. The Jets lead the all-time series, 16-10, but the Bengals have won the last 3 of 4 matchups against the Jets.

Cincinnati has averaged 18.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 343 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 21.5 points given up on defense and 302 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 20 points per game and 391 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 27 points per game and 339.5 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Bengals 24, Jets 20
Miller: Bengals 34, Jets 28
Robinson: Bengals 30, Jets 20

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting line
Buccaneers -1; Buccaneers -120, Packers +100; O/U 42

The Packers will travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Scott Novak. The Packers lead the all-time series, 32-22-1, and they’ve won the last 3 of 4 matchups against the Buccaneers.

Green Bay has averaged 17 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 376 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 16.5 points given up on defense and 311.5 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are averaging 19.5 points per game and 303.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 6.5 points per game and 276 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Buccaneers 24, Packers 17
Miller: Buccaneers 17, Packers 14
Robinson: Buccaneers 21, Packers 17

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers prediction

Betting line
Chargers -7; Chargers -335, Jaguars +260; O/U 47.5

The Jaguars will head west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Craig Wrolstad. The Chargers lead the all-time series, 9-3, and they’ve won the last 2 matchups against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars have averaged 23 points per game on the season and have gained an average of 357 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 14 points given up on defense and 304 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are averaging 24 points per game and 378 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up an average of 23 points per game and 319.5 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Chargers 28, Jaguars 27
Miller: Jaguars 24, Chargers 23
Robinson: Jaguars 27, Chargers 19

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

Betting line
Rams -3.5; Rams -190, Cardinals +158; O/U 48.5

The Rams will stay on the West Coast to take on the Cardinals, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The referee for the game is Adrian Hill. The Rams lead the all-time series, 45-39-2, and they’ve won the last 9 of 10 matchups against Arizona.

The Rams have averaged 20.5 points per game on the season and have gained an average of 290 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 29 points given up on defense and 337 total yards.

The Cardinals are averaging 25 points per game and 347.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up an average of 33.5 points per game and 406 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Rams 27, Cardinals 24
Miller: Rams 24, Cardinals 23
Robinson: Rams 24, Cardinals 21

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos

Betting line
49ers -1.5; 49ers -125, Broncos +105; O/U 45

The 49ers will head east to take on the Broncos on Sunday Night Football, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. The referee for the game is Shawn Hochuli. The all-time series is tied, 7-7, and the 49ers have won 3 of the last 4 matchups against the Broncos.

San Francisco has averaged 18.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 352 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 13 points given up on defense and 210 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are averaging 16 points per game and 391.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 13 points per game and 243.5 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: 49ers 24, Broncos 19
Miller: 49ers 24, Broncos 23
Robinson: Broncos 24, 49ers 20

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Betting line
Giants -1; Giants -115, Cowboys +105; O/U 39

The Cowboys will travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Giants, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday Night Football. The referee for the game is Land Clark. The Cowboys lead the all-time series, 71-46-2, and they’ve won the past two matchups against the Giants.

Dallas has averaged 11.5 points per game on the season and has gained an average of 290.5 total yards of offense per game. They’re averaging 18 points given up on defense and 300.5 total yards.

Meanwhile, the Giants are averaging 20 points per game and 329.5 yards of total offense. On defense, they are giving up 18 points per game and 317 yards.

Predictions
Beasley: Giants 30, Cowboys 12
Miller: Giants 21, Cowboys 17
Robinson: Cowboys 21, Giants 17

Picks and Predictions: Standings through two weeks

Beasley: 15-16-1 straight up, 16-16 against the spread
Miller: 17-14-1, 16-16
Robinson: 18-13-1, 13-19

Adam Beasley is the NFL Director for Pro Football Network. You can read all of Adam’s work here and give him a follow on Twitter @AdamHBeasley.

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