Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head game we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog Fantasy, managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Thursday Night Football Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Thursday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x your entry fee or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems.
Justin Herbert lower than 38.5 pass attempts
I know. I know. Fading offense in this game seems ill-advised. The Chiefs and Chargers are projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. But that’s been the case with every game these two teams have played since Justin Herbert became the Chargers’ starting quarterback (and probably before that, too).
Herbert has four career starts against the Chiefs. In those games, the Chargers and Chiefs combined for 43, 59, 54, and 62 points. Some might call it a festival of points. Yet, in not one of these games did Herbert exceed 38 pass attempts. In the interest of full disclosure, he did land on exactly 38 attempts twice. But he didn’t have more.
I’m going with the historical trend here. Herbert has made 33 career starts. He’s thrown more than 38 passes in 15 of them. I like Herbert to stay lower than 38.5 pass attempts on Thursday night.
Mike Williams lower than 5.5 receptions
This seems like an awfully high number of receptions for a guy that caught just two passes last week. Keenan Allen is out with a strained hamstring, but he was out for the majority of last week’s game as well. Mike Williams still only saw four targets.
Last season, Williams exceeded five receptions in six out of 16 games played. Over his last 14 games, Williams has caught six or more balls just three times.
Herbert can rely on Williams as his WR1, target him heavily, and Williams can still finish with five receptions or fewer.
Josh Palmer higher than 9.75 fantasy points
I was tempted to take Josh Palmer to have more than 46.5 receiving yards, but I like his fantasy points better. Palmer is a decent bet to score a touchdown this week. If he scores, he’s pretty much a lock to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Although it’s a small sample size, we have seen two games where Palmer was elevated to the WR2 role. Last season, Allen and Williams each missed one game. In those games, Palmer scored 15.1 and 12.8 half-PPR fantasy points, respectively.
I like this NFL pick’em because there are three ways for Palmer to get there. He can be a target hog and catch a bunch of passes. He can be efficient and catch a handful of balls for 70+ yards. Or he can score a touchdown. Regardless of which path he goes down, Palmer seems likely to exceed 9.75 fantasy points on Thursday night.
Jerick McKinnon higher than 17.5 receiving yards
Full transparency here: this is my least confident of the four Underdog Pick’ems, but I do still like it.
Last week, Jerick McKinnon ran 18 routes and was targeted on four of them. He actually played the exact same number of snaps as Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The Chiefs ran over the Cardinals last week in a game that was never competitive. While I’m not projecting a negative game script for Patrick Mahomes & Co. this week, this will undoubtedly be a more competitive game.
McKinnon caught three passes for 27 yards last week. It sure looks like his receiving yards projection hasn’t fully adjusted to his role in this offense. I like him to have more than 20 receiving yards once again, making 17.5 an even more favorable number.
