Week 5 sees the arrival of bye weeks and the first London game. Additionally, just two games are being played in a dome or retractable roof environment, so there is plenty to consider when it comes to the NFL weather forecast this week. As we go through the season, the impact of the weather increases slightly each week, and that is the same in Week 5.
With four games potentially set to be impacted by adverse weather conditions in Week 5, let’s examine the latest NFL weather forecast and how this may impact fantasy football managers’ decisions.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 5 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. UK Weather data is from BBC Weather. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings Weather
- Kickoff:Â 9:30 a.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 10-12 mph northwesterly
For anyone familiar with the British weather, it is no surprise that we could see some rain during the game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The chances are relatively small, with just a maximum of 29% during the game itself. It looks like the NFL will avoid the worst of the weather in London, with heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted for later in the evening.
Chances are that we will see next to no impact on this game from the weather, but there could be a slight depression of fantasy output if the rain does come. Games played in rainy conditions with winds in excess of 10 mph usually see around a 10% decrease in overall fantasy output per game.
However, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is well-protected from the wind so that impact might be closer to the 5% region. With the chance of rain not even falling, combined with that win protection within the stadium, there is no reason to panic hugely about your fantasy options playing in London this week.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 18-21 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 28 mph
For the second straight week, we could see weather impact the game in Soldier Field. Last week, it was the threat of wind and rain that caused the issue, while this is more just about the wind. The good news is that winds in the 15-19 mph region do not have a major impact on games compared to when there are winds under 10 mph.
Even wind in the 20-24 mph region has limited impact, with an average of 98.48 PPR fantasy points per game across 42 games that have kicked off with winds in that region. The problems will come if we get sustained gusts in that 25+ mph region. In 10 games with wind speeds at that level, when the game kicks off, the impact is an average decrease of around 15% in terms of PPR fantasy points per game.
The uncertainty here makes this a really tricky situation. Kicking is likely to be impacted, so leaning away from Cairo Santos and Eddy Pineiro, if you can, makes sense. The passing game is tougher to call because the winds are consistently in that 20 mph region with odd gusts; there hasn’t been much impact historically.
The best way to view this weather in terms of skill-position players is only if you have a 50-50 call to make. If you do, then lean away from any Panthers or Bears if the other option has a better weather situation.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: 70% chance at kickoff decreasing slightly during the game
- Wind: 6 mph northeasterly
Historically, we see around a 10% decrease in PPR fantasy points per game when there is rain. While the rain may be heavy at kickoff, it is expected to reduce in intensity by around 2 p.m. ET. Therefore, we may see a sluggish start to the game, but things should improve, assuming the field conditions aren’t too bad by that point.
When there is rain and relatively low wind, the impact breaks down between positions. The passing game decreases by around 10%, and the rushing game increases by 10%. That results in a decrease overall, and the passing game impact affects both quarterbacks and wide receivers, while the rushing increase only impacts fantasy points in that element.
The action to consider here is that you should downgrade the QBs and WRs slightly, without doing anything radical. Similarly, the likes of Travis Etienne Jr., Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson, and Tank Bigsby all get a moderate boost in value from this news.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: 65% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 10 mph westerly with gusts up to 20 mph
Things could get interesting in Sunday’s final game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers. From 6 p.m. onwards, the threat of rain and thunder increases exponentially in the Pittsburgh area. It peaks at a 70% chance of rain an hour before kickoff, with the chance of thunder being “likely” at 7 and 8 p.m. before decreasing to “chance” by 9 p.m.
Therefore, we have a little bit to unpack here. Firstly, the game could be delayed if the thunder arrives at a time that prevents the crowd from going to their seats or the players from warming up. That may actually work in our favor as fantasy managers because it could mean the worst of the rain passes before the game even kicks off.
If the game does kick off on time, we are looking at a real chance we see rain through the first half and possibly into the fourth quarter. The good news is that the worst of the 20+ mph gusts should be gone, so that is one less concern, but the rain could cause an impact here.
In the last five years there have been 38 games played where it was raining and had a wind speed of 10-14 mph at kickoff. Those games have resulted in a 10% decrease in fantasy output compared to a game that has kicked off under clear skies with similar wind levels. Therefore, we need to be prepared as fantasy managers.
The impact has been a 15-20% decrease in passing output, with very little rushing increase. Additionally, kicking from 50+ yards has been impacted in these conditions. Therefore, Brandon Aubrey and the main fantasy options in the passing game all get a little bit of a downgrade here. It probably doesn’t impact you starting CeeDee Lamb or Jake Ferguson, but it should make you think twice about anyone else.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph northeasterly
The weather up in New England looks pleasant for football with no rain forecast, and the wind speed is expected to be negligible. Any rain in the forecast is not until the early hours of Monday morning, so it shouldn’t impact the game at all.
However, you are likely avoiding this game for the most part from a fantasy perspective, so the clear weather doesn’t make much of a difference here.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-14 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 25 mph
This game has some similarities to the one in Chicago, but the concerns should be lower. The gusts are expected to be more sporadic in Cincinnati, and the base wind speed is lower than in Chicago.
These weather conditions have historically caused very little impact on fantasy-point output. There is no reason to downgrade anyone in this game based on the weather.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff:Â 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-7 mph southwesterly
There are no weather concerns for fantasy managers in Washington this week. The wind speed is negligible at just over five mph, and there is no threat of rain until the early hours of Monday morning. The temperature is also in a window where we have historically seen it have no impact on a clear day.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff:Â 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph in variable directions
It looks like a lovely clear day up at Empower Field, with warm and calm conditions. There is no forecast of rain within the next 48 hours, so there is no threat that we will see this game impacted in any major way.
Fortunately, the winds will be low because there is some variability in their direction during the game, which could be irritating if it was at higher speeds.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff:Â 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-10 mph northwesterly
We have another beautiful day in Santa Clara, but the biggest concern is that it might be a little uncomfortably hot at times. Historically, that has had little impact on fantasy output, and any issues might be more associated with an individual player’s ability to cope than a systemic issue. That element is hard to predict, so there is not much action we can take at this point.
Wind speed could increase slightly during the game, but the impact should be relatively minimal. Based on the current forecast, there is no reason to downgrade anyone in this game.
New York Giants at Seahawk Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff:Â 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 2 mph southwesterly
There is absolutely nothing to worry fantasy managers about with the game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants up in the Pacific Northwest. The temperature is on the cooler side of comfortable, but that’s not likely to be a major complaint. Historically, it is still in the region where we see little to no impact on fantasy output.
There isn’t expected to be any rain, and there will feel like next to no wind, so this is pretty perfect weather for a football game.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff:Â 8:20 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph easterly
We should caveat this with the fact we are still more than 36 hours from kickoff at the time of writing, but this game looks really nice for fantasy managers on Monday. There is expected to be very little wind, likely no rain, and the temperature is in a zone where we historically see no impact.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
