It looks like Sunday of Week 16 will be a chilly day around the NFL. Five or six games could be played in freezing temperatures, and another could be played in rainy conditions in Seattle.
However, will the conditions be extreme enough to cause fantasy football managers to avoid any of their options, or will it just be an “approach with caution” type of day?
Let’s break down the weather forecasts around the NFL in Week 16 and what impact it could have on fantasy managers.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 16 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 15 mph southerly with gusts up to 25 mph
The worst of the weather in the early slate looks set to come at Soldier Field as the Detroit Lions take on the Chicago Bears. The cold weather on its own is not a major issue. Over the last decade, games played in temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit have seen an average of a 5% decrease in fantasy output per game. That is not enough to base major fantasy decisions on.
The wind adds the extra complication here. Games played in winds of 15 mph or above, with temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit see a decrease in fantasy output of around 20% compared to warm weather games. The wind speed is an issue even at slightly higher temperatures, demonstrating that is a bigger issue than the cold.
The majority of the damage comes in the passing and kicking games. In these conditions, passing output drops by around 20%, and kicking is affected, with field goals between 40 and 50 yards hitting at just a 57.7% rate. Therefore, you may want to consider being careful with fringe pass-catching options and either of the kickers playing in this game.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-6 mph southwesterly
The weather in Cincinnati looks set to be below freezing, which is something both the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals should be used to. That does not make it particularly easy, but does limit the impact somewhat. The cold itself does not have a huge impact, with just over a 5% decrease in fantasy output.
The wind speed is not particularly concerning, but it does add a little more downside to fantasy options, especially in the passing game. The kicking game inside of 50 yards is not hugely impacted, so there is no reason to make a major change on that front.
With the weather conditions and the issues around the Browns’ passing game, it is probably best to avoid the entire group this week. For the Bengals, you are likely still leaning on Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, but that is about it in this passing offense for Week 16.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 20s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-10 mph northwesterly
The coldest weather of the day may well come in MetLife Stadium as the New York Jets host the Los Angeles Rams. The Jets should not be too out of place in these conditions, but this could be a tough trip for a warm-weather team that plays in a stadium with a roof.
The cold itself does not have a huge impact, with just over a 5% decrease in fantasy output. The wind speed is not particularly concerning, but it does add a little more downside to fantasy options, especially in the passing game. The kicking game inside of 50 yards is not hugely impacted, so there is no reason to make a major change on that front.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams remain solid options, especially given their connection in recent weeks. They are both used to playing in the cold and should not be fazed. The Rams are more of a concern, but it is hard to bench either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. I do not feel great about it, but those two are too good to bench out of fear.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-8 mph northerly
It looks like it will be fairly chilly in Washington for the game between the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. The cold weather on its own is not a major issue. Over the last decade, games played in temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit have seen an average of a 5% decrease in fantasy output per game. That is not enough to base major fantasy decisions on.
The Eagles should be comfortable in these conditions, but you do worry for Jayden Daniels, given that he has played most of his football in warm-weather climates. Being in Washington should help him adapt, but there could be some struggles here. However, it is hard to proactively bench players of the quality of Daniels or Terry McLaurin.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-5 mph northeasterly
The game between the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers in Charlotte is set to be the warmest of the outdoor games in the early slate. However, it will still be fairly chilly, so we should not completely underestimate that.
The cold weather on its own is not a major issue. Over the last decade, games played in temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit have seen an average of a 5% decrease in fantasy output per game. That is not enough to base major fantasy decisions based on.
Neither of these teams will be particularly familiar with these temperatures, at least not on a regular basis. That could lead to some teething problems, and both passing offenses already have plenty of questions surrounding them.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 40s
- Showers: >90% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-8 mph southeasterly
Things warm up in the late-afternoon slate when we head to the West Coast, but with it comes the rain in Seattle. The overall conditions, when you combine the rain, the temperature, and the wind speed, are not that bad. The average fantasy-point drop over the past decade in these conditions has been around 20%.
Therefore, you may want to hesitate around fringier pass-catching options, but it will be hard to sit the likes of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison. The conditions are not so bad that all of them become an avoid at all costs, but Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett are both players I would be hesitant about. Metcalf is not a must-start in these conditions, but close to it.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid 10s
- Showers: <10 chance at kickoff
- Wind: 1-2 mph variable
It is going to be bitterly cold in Highmark Stadium as the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. Both teams should be used to operating in cold temperatures, although this cold will certainly be a shock to young players like Drake Maye. Therefore, we could see some errors creeping in as players try to adapt to the weather conditions.
The overall impact is hard to judge. We do not have a huge amount of data in these weather conditions, but the general impact is around a 5-10% decrease in fantasy output. It is not so large that we should be immediately concerned, but there is a case to be made for sitting any pass catcher not named Amari Cooper or Khalil Shakir.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-9 mph northerly
Other than a little hint of wind, there is not too much to be worked up about with this game from a weather perspective. There is no reason to make any major shifts here or downgrade anyone. It is about as perfect outdoor weather as you will find for a Week 16 game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: High 20s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 2-3 mph northerly
This game will be preceded by a snow warning in Lambeau Field, with more than an inch of snow predicted to fall on Monday. The current weather forecast suggests that the majority will fall during the day, and the actual snowfall will be over by the time the game kicks off.
If the current forecast holds, there is no reason to be concerned about this game. The temperature and wind conditions equate to around a 5% decrease in fantasy output, which is not worth worrying about.
However, if the forecast changes and snow is projected to fall in reasonable amounts during the game, this becomes a different matter. Both passing games could become very hard to trust, but both run games should be fine. This is a tough situation because this forecast could shift considerably before kickoff with over 48 hours from the time of writing.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.