Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 10 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 10: November Weather Brings a Bit of Wind to Buffalo
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 10 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 10 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-6.5), O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
You don’t need a degree in meteorology to know that the weather is changing outside. As the calendar turned to November, cold winds began to settle across the country, and with that came increased chances for inclement conditions. While, on the whole, a fantasy manager is getting a break in Week 10, Buffalo is the one exception that deserves a little additional clarification.
A trend you’ll notice across the league is that the temperatures have bottomed out. Temperatures in Orchard Park are expected to sit around 40 degrees but feel closer to freezing thanks to the 14 mph sustained winds and gusts of 20. I don’t think we’ll see any precipitation at just 30%, but the mostly cloudy skies and winds will feel like it could be snowing any minute.
The biggest question hanging over this game and the week was Josh Allen’s status, who is managing a UCL injury. Allen has been sensational this year, with every game inside the top 12 and only one outside the top five at the position. It does appear that Allen will suit up on Saturday, but we won’t have any certainty until game time. If he is active, Allen is a must-start.
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NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 10 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the Week 10 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U 44.5 | Munich 9:30 a.m. ET
Germany says Guten Tag to the NFL as the league makes its debut in the country early on Sunday morning for those back in the states.
While it’s easy to set the headlines every week about the struggles of Tom Brady, we need to spend more time highlighting how great of a season Geno Smith is having for the Seahawks. Last week, Smith completed 76% of his passes for 275 yards with two touchdowns and a pick, and now leads the NFL with seven multiple-passing touchdown games. He sits as the QB9 in points per game, and of the two, I prefer Smith to Brady for fantasy.
MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendations
Believe it or not, I also prefer Kenneth Walker III over Leonard Fournette. Despite sitting 11th in opportunity share, Fournette is 67th in yards after contact per rush and has watched his snap rate drop to about 62%.
Since taking over the top spot, Walker III is the RB6 in points per game while averaging 23.5 touches and 114 yards per game. Tampa Bay is no longer a pass funnel, as they sit 26th yards per game and are 24th in EPA. Walker III is an RB1, whereas Fournette is a high-end RB2.
As for the Week 10 weather forecast in Munich, expect sunny skies and 53-degree temperatures with 7 mph winds.
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Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears (-3), O/U 48.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Justin Fields deserves every bit of praise he is receiving. And even then, it might not be enough. He’s rushed for nearly 50 yards in every game since Week 3 in has scored 17 points or more in every game since Week 5.
He’s also put together four straight QB8 or better performances, including three straight with 23+ PPR, and is coming off a 42.7-point outing where he threw for just 123 yards but rain for nearly 180 (the most a QB has ever rushed for in a single game). Fields is the QB4 in our Week 10 QB fantasy rankings.
Last week, the Lions stated before the game they were going to use D’Andre Swift like they did the week before and limit his touches while he recovers from an injury. That’s why I wasn’t necessarily shocked to see him receive just five touches. If that remains the same this week, then Swift managers have a real issue.
Jamaal Williams is not going away anytime soon. Williams sits as the RB16 on the season thanks to his eight touchdowns and the fifth-highest amount of red-zone touches. Hopefully, Swift can regain some of his touches in Week 10.
Chicago’s Week 10 weather forecast should feature 39-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and 11 mph winds.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), O/U 50.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
After a slow start, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been on a tear as of late and now sits as the WR22 in points per game this season. Since Week 6, Smith-Schuster has an 18.8% target share (8.3 targets per game) while averaging 7.3 receptions and 108.3 receiving yards.
Additionally, he is the WR1 over this time with WR7, WR4, and WR8 finishes. While Travis Kelce will remain the top target in the red zone, Smith-Schuster actually has 11 targets inside the 20 (7th most) and nine overs lost four games. Although I do really like Christian Kirk on the other side of the ball, Smith-Schuster bests him as a low-end WR1 this week in our WR fantasy rankings.
I love this game from a DFS side of things, too, as both teams sit inside the top seven in neutral pace of play and ride off the arms of the quarterbacks. That leads to a lot of plays in a lot of fantasy points.
Expect 41-degree temperatures, six mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies in Kansas City for Week 10.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Back in the offseason, one of the favorite questions was, who will be this year’s Cooper Kupp? Apparently, we were all overthinking it, as that answer is Tyreek Hill.
Hill sits as the WR3 on the season and has recorded over 140 receiving yards and three of his last four games. Hill is averaging 122.7 yards on eight of 11 receiving per game. He sits second in target share, fifth in air yard share, and first in target per run rate and deep targets. He and Jaylen Waddle are unstoppable, and while Vegas has this game close, I can’t help but feel Miami can pull this one away at any moment.
MORE: Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions for Every Game
If you need an under-the-radar option for week 11, check out Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s finished with 70 receiving yards and four of his last five and has three straight games in the top 36 (WR33, WR34, WR34). If you can find him at 41.5 receiving yards, I’d take the over.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 10 in Miami, we should expect highs around 81 with 7 mph winds and mostly sunny skies.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-5.5), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
In Week 10, we all get to play the game of guessing how many rushing yards Saquon Barkley will have on Sunday. He sits as the RB5 in fantasy on the season while averaging 23.9 touches and 121 total yards per game.
He has seven games with 85 scrimmage yards or more and faces a Texans defense that was just humiliated by Derrick Henry and sits bottom-four in rushing yards, EPA, and explosive rate. Taking the higher on Barkley’s rushing yards on Underdog Fantasy is one of my favorite projections of the week.
The Week 10 weather report shows chilly conditions in East Rutherford, with temps around 40 that will feel closer to freezing with 11 mph winds and mostly cloudy skies.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) and Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Outside of Jonathan Taylor, who gets more scrutiny because he was the consensus 1.01, has there been any more disappointing first-round draft pick the Najee Harris this year? Don’t get me wrong, I was down on him this year, but even then, I was apparently too high. He’s yet to top 14 points in a game this year and hasn’t reached 13 PPR since Week 3. Harris has reached just 50 rushing yards only once in the past month and has three touchdowns in the entire season.
Complicating matters further is the Steelers have been very vocal about getting Jaylen Warren more touches, as he’s been the far more efficient back between the two. Harris is 55th in yards after contact per attempt, whereas Warren sits 22nd and averages nearly 6 yards per touch. That doesn’t mean you can start Warren. It just means that I would sit Harris against the Saints.
As far as the pass catchers go, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are low-upside WR3 ranked receivers for Week 10. In contrast, Chris Olave, who enters with a 27% target share in 41% air-yard share, is a high-end WR2 against the Steelers’ defense that will be missing Minkah Fitzpatrick in centerfield.
Expect 40-degree temperatures that will feel around 32, 7 mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies in Pittsburgh for Week 10.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5), O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
After two weeks of struggles with Malik Willis under center, Ryan Tannehill looks like he will return this week. He practiced in a limited fashion most of the week, but he’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 against a top-five passing defense, despite Treylon Burks making his expected return.
I was all in on Courtland Sutton this year, and while that went away quickly thanks to the play of Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy has been hot as of late and cracked the top 24 of WR rankings for Week 10. He’s the WR37 and has three top-20 finishes over his last five games (WR20, WR16, and WR13). Jeudy has nearly 21% of the targets and 24% of the team’s air yards and a team-high 13 targets of 20+ air yards or more. However, he’s only caught three of those for 136 yards with a score.
Tennessee has been awful at stopping receivers. They’ve allowed nearly 75 yards more than anyone else on deep passes (674), and 40.5 PPR points per game are the third-highest in the NFL. Both Jeudy and Sutton are starters in Week 10 for fantasy.
As for the Week 10 weather forecast in Nashville, expect mostly sunny skies and 46-degree temperatures with 7 mph winds.
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Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) and Green Bay Packers, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Dak is back. It was only going to take a little bit of time to not the rust off, but Prescott looked sharp in Week 8, finishing as the QB4 the week. The player who benefits the most has actually been Dalton Schultz.
Since Prescott returned to the lineup, Schultz has over 23% of the targets and is averaging 61.5 receiving yards per game. Over the last two weeks, he’s finished as the TE12 and TE5 despite running only 15 routes per game. Green Bay is a difficult matchup, but I’m taking the higher on Schultz’s 31.5 receiving yards.
MORE: Week 10 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
If you have Aaron Jones, you avoided the crisis as not only will Jones play after leaving the last game and a walking boot, but he’s been sensational at home. He has 409 scrimmage yards (102.3 per game) and two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving) in four home games in 2022.
He has 75+ scrimmage yards and five of his past six at home. And the last time these teams met, Jones had seven catches, 182 scrimmage yards, and a career-high for rushing touchdowns. While I certainly don’t expect that with his current Packers offense, I still feel safe starting Jones, but I would leave A.J. Dillon on the bench.
Green Bay’s Week 10 weather forecast should feature 35-degree temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and nine mph winds.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5), O/U 45.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
This will be one of the best games of the weekend, and luckily we can enjoy it in prime time. Additionally, it was also the game where I broke down several of my favorite Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems. It should be no surprise that included both of the running backs.
While Austin Ekeler certainly has the more challenging matchup of the two, he’s averaged 19.8 touches and 101 yards per game and has not only found the end zone in five-straight games, but he has multiple touchdowns in four of five. I’m taking the higher on his 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns.
As for Christian McCaffrey, he could break the slate this weekend. In his first full game with the 49ers, McCaffrey saw 26 touches and turned those into 149 yards and two touchdowns. Not only that, but he also threw for a 34-yard touchdown.
In doing so, he became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson to record a passing, receiving, and rushing touchdown in a single game. LA sits 29th in rushing yards, 31st in EPA, and 29th in DVOA. His stat line is going to look like it was pulled straight from a Madden game.
Expect 46-degree temperatures that will feel chilly for the area, 2-mph winds, and partly cloudy skies in Santa Clara for Week 10.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5), O/U 43.5 | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Those Jalen Hurts MVP tickets are looking pretty good right about now. He’s been sensational this year. In their last game, Hurts completed nearly 78% of his passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns and is looking to make it four in a row with 2+ touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s finished outside the top 12 only once this year and is about as matchup-proof of an option as it gets.
Given the way Philadelphia’s played this year, especially against the pass, it’s hard to fully recommend their receivers outside of Terry McLaurin, who comes in as a WR3 with Curtis Samuel in WR4 territory. Although you’ve been able to run the ball against Philly, I would sit Brian Robinson Jr. but start Antonio Gibson.
Since Week 7, Gibson is average 13.3 touches and 67 total yards with top-16 finishes and two of his three games. Philadelphia sits 27th in rushing yards and 31st in EPA since Week 5. Gibson slides in as a low-end RB2, with Brian Robinson as a touchdown-dependent RB4.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 10 in Philadelphia, we should expect highs around 40 with 7-mph winds and clear skies.
Indoor Games in Week 10
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)
O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
O/U 40.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Teams on a Bye in Week 10
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New England Patriots
- New York Jets
