Generally, we don’t see major weather concerns around the NFL in Week 1, which is a relief to fantasy football managers. For the most part, that’s the case to kick off 2024, but there are some areas of potential concern. Let’s take a look at the weather forecasts around the NFL on Sunday and Monday and their potential Week 1 fantasy impacts.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 1 NFL Weather?
Weather forecasts are up to date as of 6 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024. Forecasts for the games are from the National Weather Service.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 20 mph west
This game is intriguing from a weather potential perspective. Once you get into that 20 miles per hour region, there does start to be some impact on the kicking game and deep passes. It shouldn’t impact the shorter-passing game as it might if there were gusts or consistent winds over 30 mph.
The wind is westerly, so it should impact teams more going towards the northwest end of the stadium. The wind will be blowing into their faces, potentially taking some distance off the deep shots. However, we could also see quarterbacks overthrowing receivers going in the other direction if the ball sails a little on the wind. Both could be equally dangerous.
At this stage, we don’t know exactly how some of the different fantasy options in this game will be used, especially Keon Coleman and Marvin Harrison Jr. Those two, alongside Michael Wilson, have the most potential to be impacted if Josh Allen and Kyler Murray cannot go deep with consistency.
Curtis Samuel is the one receiver I feel confident will not be impacted too severely, as he is expected to be the short-yardage option and even get some handoffs. Dalton Kincaid and Trey Benson could see some impact on the deeper passing side, but both are too valuable at the tight end position to mess around with.
This weather could play into the hands of the running game, but you were already starting James Conner and James Cook. Additionally, that could add value to Allen and Murray, but both were already must-starts.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 60s to Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 9 mph west with gusts up to 15 mph
Despite there being some gusty conditions in Soldier Field, the speeds shouldn’t be high enough to have a major impact. Additionally, the wind will be a crosswind, so there may be some protection from the stands on that side. The worst impact in Chicago often tends to come when the winds are northerly.
There should be no reason to downgrade any fantasy options for this. The winds aren’t high enough in terms of speed to cause a major impact, and the temperature is still warm enough to limit the impact.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 60s to Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: <5 mph north
Quite simply, there should be no concerns here in terms of the weather. The temperature is nice and the wind should be negligible. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this game from a fantasy perspective, but the weather isn’t one of them.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 80s to Low 90s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph southeast
While there is some wind expected in this game, it’s fairly negligible at 10 mph, so that shouldn’t be a concern for fantasy managers. Additionally, the stadium is somewhat sheltered with a half roof so it takes considerable wind for that to have a major impact.
The heat could be an issue later in the game, but both of these teams are based in Florida, so they should be well-acclimated. If anything, the heat here could favor this being a high-octane game as defenses tire in the second half.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 11 mph northwest with gusts up to 22 mph
There could be some intermittent concerns with the weather here as the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants square off at MetLife Stadium. The trouble with gusts is that they can be fleeting, so predicting the impact is tough. However, we could see the deep passing and kicking games hurt by those gusts.
The wind will be sweeping in from the northwest end zone, so it could hurt any deep passing or kicking going in that direction. In contrast, the kickers could get a boost towards the southeasterly end. However, that’s hard to mitigate when planning for fantasy as it can depend on the coin toss and the way the game plays out.
We could see all of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Malik Nabers impacted at times by these winds, but again, that’s tricky to plan for. Ultimately, this doesn’t change anything significantly because you’re still starting Jefferson and Nabers and avoiding Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold outside of deep Superflex formats. The one person this may impact is Addison, who is a fringe starter and could be downgraded based on the uncertainty.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7 mph south
Seattle can often be one of the more concerning weather spots in the NFL, but Week 1 presents no such concerns. It will be a warm, dry day with minimal wind, perfect for fantasy.
Whoever you were considering starting from this matchup, there should be no reason to downgrade them based on the current weather forecast.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 14 mph northwest
Things look pretty good weather-wise in Cleveland today. The wind is around 15 mph, which is where we start to question it, but it doesn’t quite hit that threshold. Additionally, the speed is expected to drop as the game progresses.
The weather will be a crosswind coming in off the lake, where the field does tend to be a little more protected by the stands. When it comes to the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, and Jerry Jeudy, there should be no major concerns for fantasy managers. Similarly, there’s no reason to downgrade Dak Prescott or Deshaun Watson.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 80s
- Showers: 50% chance at kickoff increasing during the game
- Wind: 7 mph west
The one Sunday game where we could see some rain is Sunday afternoon in Tampa Bay. The rain could be fairly heavy at times and could come with thunder, which may delay the game. Fortunately, the rain won’t come with cold weather, mitigating the impact.
Rain tends to affect ball security and pass catching. Therefore, we could see an elevated fumble or dropped catch rate in this matchup. Yet, the fantasy impact of those is hard to predict. Therefore, you would only really use this weather to make 50-50 decisions, and those would lean you against starting someone like Chris Godwin if you are on the fence.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers | Monday, 8:15 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13 mph northwest with gusts up to 21 mph
The start of this game could be impacted by wind, but the gusts should die down as the matchup goes on. The gusts are borderline in terms of impact, while the sustained winds should have little to no impact at all.
The gusts could cause annoyance for kickers going north of the stadium, especially with the opening between the west and north stands allowing the wind to funnel in. Similarly, we could see deep passes being impacted towards that end in terms of the wind knocking them down.
Much like with the Commanders-Buccaneers game you’re not downgrading anyone in this matchup specifically. However, if you are on the fence about a player like Brandon Aiyuk, then this could be a reason to lean to someone else in Week 1.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.