For the most part, in Week 9, the NFL weather forecast is playing ball for fantasy football managers, but there are a few exceptions. Most of those exceptions come in the late-afternoon slate but could also see Monday Night Football impacted, which all makes for some very difficult decisions ahead of the early slate of games. Do you trust the forecast, or be brave and hope for a slight easing in the weather?
Let’s break down all 14 of the remaining NFL games in Week 9 regarding the weather forecast and see what the fantasy impact of those conditions could be.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 9 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 4 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-15 mph northeasterly with gusts up to 24 mph
The worst weather forecast of the early slate is set to be in Tennessee as the Titans host the New England Patriots. If you could pick one game to be impacted the most by the weather, it would probably be this one where the fantasy options were already scarce.
Additionally, the conditions here are not too severe, with relatively moderate wind speeds being accompanied by clear skies and comfortable temperatures.
Titans QB Mason Rudolph is expected to start vs. the Patriots while QB Will Levis continues to recovery from his shoulder injury, per sources.
Titans RB Tony Pollard, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a foot injury, is expected to play vs. the Patriots, as is WR Tyler…— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 3, 2024
When there is this level of wind at games, we see a maximum decrease of around 5-10% in terms of fantasy points on average. Therefore, you may look to tick down a player like Calvin Ridley a touch, but there should be no major decisions made on fantasy options based on the weather in Nashville this weekend.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-7 mph northeasterly
The weather looks close to ideal for fantasy purposes in Baltimore this weekend. Temperatures just below 60 typically result in a minor decrease in output, but nothing significant enough to consider downgrading any fantasy options in this game based on the weather.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-8 mph easterly
The weather looks close to ideal for fantasy purposes in Buffalo this weekend. Temperatures just below 60 typically result in a minor decrease in output, but nothing significant enough to consider downgrading any fantasy options in this game based on the weather.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8 mph northeasterly
This weather is ideal for fantasy purposes. The temperature is just right, so there is no adverse impact and no risk of heat-related issues. Similarly, with no rain predicted, there is likely to be minimal, if any, impact from the weather. With two struggling defenses, this could be a very entertaining game of football in Carolina.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-8 mph southeasterly
This weather is ideal for fantasy purposes. The temperature is just right, so there is no adverse impact and no risk of heat-related issues. Similarly, with no rain predicted, there is likely to be minimal, if any, impact from the weather. With two struggling defenses, this could be a very entertaining game of football in Cincinnati.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-12 mph southeasterly
This weather is close to ideal for fantasy purposes. The temperature is just right, so there is no adverse impact and no risk of heat-related issues. Similarly, with no rain predicted, there is likely to be minimal, if any, impact from the weather. With two struggling defenses, this could be a very entertaining game of football in Cleveland.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-7 mph northerly
The weather looks close to ideal in New York this weekend. Temperatures just below 60 typically result in a minor decrease in output, but nothing significant enough to consider downgrading any fantasy players in this game based on weather.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-5 mph northeasterly
The weather looks close to ideal for fantasy purposes in Philadelphia this weekend. Temperatures just below 60 typically result in a minor decrease in output, but nothing significant enough to consider downgrading any fantasy options in this game based on the weather.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: >85% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 14-15 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 30 mph
The worst weather of the day looks set to hit Lambeau Field, with the worst of the conditions expected to peak right around kickoff. That is a major concern for fantasy managers, with two of the more high-profile offenses going head-to-head in what could have been a high-scoring game in ideal weather conditions.
Even without the gusts up to 30 mph, sustained wind conditions in the region of 14-15 mph, when accompanied by rain, have resulted in a 20% decrease in fantasy output. When you then add in temperatures close to 50, you’re looking at a fantasy decrease anywhere in the region of 20-30%.
Naturally, wind and rain have the biggest impact on the passing game, while the running game remains largely unaffected. Therefore, we could expect Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Josh Jacobs to produce their usual numbers. And with Jacobs being hurt, Emanuel Wilson could get more of a look.
Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still someone you want to start, but there will be question marks around all the Packers’ receivers and any of the options deeper on the Lions’ depth chart as well.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 40s
- Showers: >35% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph southerly
With little wind forecasted in Seattle today, the biggest impact in terms of the weather will be from the rain and relatively chilly temperatures. Games played in these conditions typically see a decrease of around 20% in fantasy output, with the passing game most heavily impacted.
However, the rain is the key here because clear weather with these temperatures only sees a drop of 5-10% in fantasy output. That’s what makes things tricky here for fantasy managers because if there is rain, you would consider downgrading the likes of Tyler Lockett. If it’s clear, though, there would be no real need to.
Rams expect WR Puka Nacua to be able to try to play Sunday vs. Seattle, despite him being listed as questionable due to a knee injury, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 3, 2024
Someone like Cooper Kupp would not get a downgrade here, but Puka Nacua is more of a concern, given the injury situation. Combine that with the rain, Nacua would be a tough play this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-60s
- Showers: >90% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8 mph easterly
It looks like it will be very wet in Kansas City over the next 48 hours or so, which could impact Monday Night Football. The current forecast is for rain and thunderstorms throughout that period, and all of Monday afternoon currently has at least an 80% chance of rain, so conditions look pretty awful in Kansas City.
The positive aspect is that there doesn’t appear to be any high winds, which would make things exponentially harder.
When it rains and the temperatures are in the mid-60s, we’re roughly talking about a fantasy output reduction of around 20%. The wind speeds being in that 5-9 mph region add an extra 5% to the mix, so we’re talking about a reduction of around 25% compared to what would be expected in clear conditions with similar temperatures and win levels.
What this means for fantasy managers is that there might be some hesitation over the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, or any of the Buccaneers’ pass catchers. However, while it could be a tough outing, it’s hard to bench a player like Travis Kelce, given the weakness of the tight end position.
This is an uncomfortable circumstance for fantasy managers because you are projecting a weather forecast more than 36 hours in advance, and we know things can change. A decision made today could look very different 15 minutes before kickoff if conditions don’t go the way you hope.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.