Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season is intriguing from a weather forecast perspective. We have a number of dome games this week, but the ones that are outdoors could all see some impact from the weather at some point. That starts this morning in Munich, where the cold temperatures could be an issue before wind and rain take over as the main concern in the 1 p.m. window.
In total, there are just six games where the NFL weather forecast could be an issue, which leaves plenty of other options. Let’s go game-by-game and see which games could be worth avoiding from a fantasy football perspective in Week 10.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 10 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers Weather (Germany)
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 1-3 mph northerly
It looks to be a chilly but dry day in Munich for the game between the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. With very little wind forecasted, this game shouldn’t be too bad from a fantasy perspective, at least in terms of the weather’s impact.
Games with temperatures around 40 see a drop off of between 5 and 10% in fantasy output, which is not that alarming at this time of year.
It’s worth noting that historically, games that have dipped into the 30s have seen a bigger impact on fantasy output, dropping into the 20%+ region. However, that tends to be once we get closer to 30 rather than the upper end of the 30-40 bracket.
In some ways it would be easier if this game was projected to have extremely bad weather.
Outside of Chuba Hubbard, the fantasy options on both sides are largely unreliable. Thus, having the weather dictate that you should bench the likes of Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker would make things somewhat simpler.
Hubbard, Malik Nabers, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are the top fantasy options in this game, and all could help you in Week 10.
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: 15-25% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 15-20 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 30 mph
It looks to be an interesting weather day at Soldier Field in Week 10. Both wind and rain are forecasted, but the temperature should at least be relatively stable around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
The biggest question from a fantasy aspect is whether rain will fall because winds in the 15-20 region with the odd gust at 30 miles per hour do not tend to be a major issue alone.
In games where we’ve seen sustained winds in the 15-20 mph region, fantasy output has been decreased by around 10% when the skies are clear. However, when rain falls as well, those numbers drop even further, with an average decrease of around 20%. Therefore, fantasy managers will need to keep a keen eye on the weather in Chicago prior to kickoff.
If rain falls, then the passing games on both sides become a concern, especially with the way both have been shaping up in recent weeks. D’Andre Swift is likely a safe play either way, but the weather may dictate how you approach DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. The Patriots are a hard sell against the Bears’ defense, regardless of the weather.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: 35-55% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-15 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 22 mph
It could be a little wet and windy in Jacksonville this weekend, which could have some impact on the fantasy output. If the sustained winds stay in and around a maximum of 15 mph, with gusts higher than that, then you’re looking at around a 15-20% average decrease in fantasy output if it rains and a 10% decrease if it doesn’t.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a left shoulder injury, will not play vs. the Vikings, per source. The question is whether Lawrence will make it back for next Sunday vs. the Lions or whether the team will give him one more week off with… pic.twitter.com/6dqxcXnhVw
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 10, 2024
With temperatures staying warm, there should be no reason for alarm over a player like Justin Jefferson, and both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are fringe options at their positions.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are impossible to judge with Mac Jones expected to start. The entire offense may prove unusable, regardless of the weather.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph westerly with gusts up to 20 mph
Things shouldn’t get too bad weather-wise in Kansas City. Sustained winds up to 10 mph tend to result in around a 5% decrease in fantasy output if there is any impact. The gusts reaching 20 mph may have some impact, but nothing too severe, which should be good news for anyone looking to start DeAndre Hopkins or Travis Kelce.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 9 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 24 mph
It’s unlikely to get too bad weather-wise in Tampa Bay. Sustained winds up to 10 mph tend to result in around a 5% decrease in fantasy output if there is any impact. Gusts reaching 25 mph may have some impact, but like in Kansas City, nothing too severe.
There should be no reason to change any fantasy plans you have with either offense based on the weather this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: 20% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph southerly
It really comes down to whether the 20% chance of rain turns into anything that will determine the fantasy impact of the game in Washington. Sustained winds up to 10 mph tend to result in around a 5% decrease in fantasy output if there is any impact. That jumps to around 10% if there is rain as well, but even then, it doesn’t massively change lineup decisions.
You may want to use the forecast in Washington as a tiebreaker in any close decisions. If you have a player playing in a dome game, leaning on them may be the safer option.
Still, there’s no reason to downgrade players like Terry McLaurin or Jayden Daniels in this matchup because of the weather forecast.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Detroit Lions at Houston Texans | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams | Monday, 8:15 p.m.