While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Wild Card Weekend between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Seahawks vs. 49ers
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four for 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick ’em you add to your entry.
Brock Purdy Higher Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
I don’t know about you, but I’m a big fan of things with a 100% hit rate. That’s what we have here, as Brock Purdy has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all six of his starts in the NFL and has 14 passing touchdowns since Week 13.
Seattle is not a defense to fear, as they sit 20th in yards per attempt, 19th in yards after the catch, and 25th in missed tackles allowed, which is not a good thing against the 49ers offense that thrives on making plays after the catch. Purdy going higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns feels like a guaranteed win on Underdog Pick’ems for the Wild Card Weekend.
George Kittle Higher Than 4.0 Receptions
This is one of those games I would have no issue taking any of George Kittle’s Underdog Pick ’em projections. I like him to go higher than 4.0 receptions, 43.5 receiving yards, and 9.15 half-PPR points.
He is the top-ranked tight end for fantasy during the playoffs, and since Purdy has been under center, Kittle has a 22.2% target share and a 23.9% air-yard share while scoring seven touchdowns over his last four games.
Deebo Samuel being back into the mix does complicate things somewhat, but the chemistry between Kittle and Purdy is not going anywhere. Kittle is sixth in YPRR, 10th in YAC/reception, and faces a Seattle defense that is 27th in DVOA, 32nd in yards per reception, and 31st and receiving yards per game to TEs. If the 49ers advance into the Divisional Round, it will be because of contributions by Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey Lower Than 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Going lower on anything for Christian McCaffrey takes some conviction, but there is merit to it. There’s no question about it, McCaffrey has been the best running back in the NFL and has thrived in San Francisco. He has 100 or more scrimmage yards in five of his last eight games, but I’m choosing to go with volume rather than efficiency.
McCaffrey has rushed for more than 16.5 attempts only three times since Week 8, and in the three games he’s played with Elijah Mitchell, McCaffrey has combined for 31 rushing attempts. We also have to factor in an active Deebo Samuel, who can take a few carries away as well.
The 49ers have so many weapons on offense that someone like McCaffrey can impact the game but not have to see 20+ touches to do so. This is why I’m going with volume rather than betting against McCaffrey on a per touch basis and taking the lower on his 16.5 rushing attempts against the Seahawks for the Wild Card Weekend.
Kenneth Walker III Less Than 61.5 Rushing Yards
Kenneth Walker III has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since he took over the backfield following the season-ending injury to Rashaad Penny. He also heads into the playoffs on a hot streak with three games in a row of 23 or more carries and 100+ rushing yards.
However, we must play the matchup, and the 49ers are brutal. When Walker faced this defense in Week 15, he totaled only 47 yards on 12 carries. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is the only player who has rushed for more than 69 yards against this defense. Factor in a negative game script, and I favor going lower than 61.5 rushing yards for Walker III during the Wild Card Weekend.
Tyler Lockett Higher Than 5.0 Receptions
Tyler Lockett was back to a nearly full workload last week as he got back to action following surgery required on his hand. He’s been critical for the Seattle Seahawks this season, recording a 21.3% target share and 29.3% air-yard share.
He has 75 or more receiving yards in three of his last four road playoff games and recorded 107 yards in their Week 2 meeting. With Seattle likely playing from behind, Lockett is a high-volume player for Geno Smith and should go higher than 5.0 receptions against the 49ers for Underdog Pick’ems.
[the_ad_group id=”65252″]
