If you’re still in your original survivor pool, congratulations. This year has had one of the craziest starts we’ve seen in a while. Some smaller survivor pools were won after just two weeks, and people have started a second one to fill the void that was left behind. Whatever your situation, we need to get through Week 3.
Let’s review the PFN staff picks for this weekend’s games and identify which games are the top picks for survivor leagues this week.
What Are the Top Survivor Picks for Week 3?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Denver Broncos)
There is the chance that you may have used the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 against a rookie quarterback, but if you didn’t, then this would be the week to consider them. The Buccaneers have been strong through two weeks, posting the seventh-highest EPA (expected points added) in the league.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are 29th in EPA and only scored six points last week at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The big risk for the Buccaneers is that their strength is on offense, and they’re going up against the Broncos’ strength on defense. If Denver’s defense can neutralize Tampa Bay’s offense, they could sneak an upset win.
Despite that concern, this is still the survivor pick I am backing with the highest confidence this week. The Buccaneers have looked really good through two weeks, meaning this matchup has the biggest EPA differential in Week 3, and they’re playing at home.
San Francisco 49ers (at Los Angeles Rams)
The San Francisco 49ers being a consensus pick is hardly a surprise, but mostly because of just how bad the Los Angeles Rams looked last week. Both teams have injury issues, but the Rams’ situation is significantly worse, impacting both their skill-position players and offensive line.
The Rams are having some terrible injury luck this season:
•Star receiver: Cooper Kupp
•Star receiver: Puka Nacua
• Starting left tackle: Joe Noteboom
• Starting right tackle: Rob Havenstein
• Starting guard: Steve Avila
• Starting cornerback Darious Williams🫠pic.twitter.com/onqnEC2gu3
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
The 49ers’ injuries shouldn’t be underestimated, especially as they will be without arguably their two best skill-position players, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. This is another game with a huge EPA differential through the first two weeks, and it would be a huge shock if San Francisco were to lose, even if the game is in LA.
The 49ers have historically had the Rams’ number, winning nine of their last 10 regular-season meetings. There is some concern about a familiarity situation between the two teams, but that has been the case for the previous 10 matchups and has rarely mattered in those.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Atlanta Falcons)
We haven’t had a true opportunity to use the Chiefs yet in survivor leagues because they’ve had tough matchups to open the season. Both games against the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals could have been banana skins, and we accordingly saw them come right down to the wire.
That changes this week against the Atlanta Falcons. It’s intriguing that sportsbooks only have the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites coming out of Monday Night Football. The Falcons’ offense looked disjointed for most of the night, and while their defense played well, it was as much about the Philadelphia Eagles’ mistakes as the things Atlanta did well.
This game feels like a good spot to use the Chiefs, but I can understand hesitancy. Kansas City is eighth in the NFL with a 10.95 EPA, while the Falcons are 13th at 2.04. Of the three options listed so far, that is the lowest EPA differential by some distance.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Washington Commanders)
If you thought the game above had a low EPA differential at just over a touchdown, this game is split by less than three points. The Bengals enter Week 3 at 0-2 after a miserable Week 1 performance and then a last-second heartbreak in Week 2. Through two games, their net EPA is -5.86, with their offense registering a -9.66.
Despite being 1-1, the Commanders do have a lower EPA, sitting at -7.98. However, their issue has been the defense, which has posted a -25.28 EPA. Therefore, this is one of those matchups that will see two strengths and two weaknesses each go head-to-head. However, this is a matchup that suits us, as generally, it is better if the defensive side of that is your strength.
Ultimately, I need to see more from the Bengals before selecting them in a survivor pool. Getting Tee Higgins back would be a good start, but of the four teams listed so far, they would be my last choice.
Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 3
In case this is your first time playing in a survivor league, the upset losses for the Bengals and Ravens through the first two weeks of the season are a brutal reminder that even the biggest favorites can get knocked off on any given Sunday.
As mentioned last week, simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis — which will normally include some of the best teams in the league — might feel like a safe strategy, but it doesn’t exactly guarantee you’re going to advance.
If you simply combine the two biggest upsets over the first two weeks of NFL action and their respective selection percentages on Survivor Grid, then an absurd 68.2% of survivor-league participants could already be eliminated in your league.
This could provide you with an opportunity to legitimately win your league if you select a contrarian selection while another big upset takes place in the next few weeks.
In fact, picking another team with a favorable matchup but a slightly lower spread could greatly position you to capitalize in your survivor league if a major upset happens, like it did on Sunday. Of course, this strategy does come with a bit more risk, but it’s one worth considering depending on how many contestants are remaining in your individual league.
This is why I’m here to provide you with some additional long-term strategies to help optimize your weekly picks, position yourself to win now and later, and, ultimately, hoist your Survivor League championship trophy.
I don’t particularly have any unbreakable rules when selecting games, but I have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
I want to be clear, these rules aren’t gospel. This doesn’t mean you can’t pick a divisional matchup when making your weekly selection. Just be cognizant of the fact that opponents who are very familiar with one another could play out a bit differently than you expect if you’re just looking at team records.
Additionally, we really want to do everything within our power to avoid using teams that hold significant future value through the first five weeks of the season.
For example, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most selected teams that won through the first two weeks of the season. That means I will exclude them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation.
This appropriately brings us to the section where we start laying out our battle plan for the first month of the season. To accomplish that objective, here are two sets of strategies you could deploy to keep those teams available heading into October.
Strategy 1
Week 3:Â Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4:Â San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Week 5:Â Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BUF, DAL, MIA, HOU
Strategy 2
Week 3:Â Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DEN)
Week 4:Â New York Jets (vs. DEN)
Week 5:Â Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, SF, MIA, BUF, DAL, HOU
In both strategies, you get to keep more than a handful of projected playoff teams with some elite options at quarterback available after the first month of the season, which really comes into play once bye weeks begin in Week 5.
Another popular strategy is to simply tail a terrible football team. I’m completely on board with this strategy, which means targeting teams we expect to struggle.
The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos have struggled offensively through the first two weeks of the season.
Additionally, injuries to the quarterback position can always be an approach. The Miami Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a while after suffering a concussion against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.
However, the Green Bay Packers somehow orchestrated a competent offense around Malik Willis in Week 2, so this strategy isn’t exactly a surefire way to attack your weekly selection.
The Panthers’ surprise move to Andy Dalton under center could potentially help give Carolina’s offense a pulse. Yet, the defense has struggled so much through the first two games that a change under center may not be enough to make the Panthers competitive in most contests — which makes them an ideal team to tail on a weekly basis.
