For the first time this NFL season, the biggest favorite of the week didn’t lose outright. As 10.5-point favorites, the San Francisco 49ers beat the New England Patriots 30-13. The New York Jets, however, were 8.5-point home favorites and lost outright to the Denver Broncos after Aaron Rodgers and their offense failed to score a touchdown.
If you’re still alive in your survivor pool to this point, that is quite an accomplishment considering the amount of upsets so far this season. For those of you who haven’t been eliminated, we break down our top NFL survivor picks for Week 5.
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Survivor Strategy for NFL Week 5
The 49ers Should Continue To Roll Despite the Divisional Matchup
The 49ers might be 2-2 after disappointing losses in Weeks 2 and 3, but they’re still one of the premier teams in the NFL. Even with the injuries they’ve suffered on offense, they’re sixth-best in EPA (expected points added) per drive, as Kyle Shanahan’s unit has thrived even during Christian McCaffrey’s absence.
This week, San Francisco faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that is 28th in EPA and 30th in success rate.
This Cardinals team, which entered 2024 with a lot of hype offensively and a healthy Kyler Murray with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., has also only scored 27 total points over the last two weeks.
Divisional matchups are usually scary for survivor, but the 49ers are the biggest favorites this week for a reason.
Even on a Short Week, Trust the Seahawks Against the Giants
The Seattle Seahawks were handed their first loss of the season on Monday night against the Detroit Lions, but they’re six-point home favorites this week against the New York Giants.
Defensively, the Seahawks took a major step back against Detroit, having allowed 42 points with Jared Goff completing 100% of his passes for 292 yards and two touchdowns.
Their offense, however, was lights out. They totaled 516 yards and were near-unstoppable at moving the chains.
The Seahawks had 38 first downs tonight!
That's the most by any team in a game in the last 10 seasons.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 1, 2024
The risk here is that Seattle is very banged up defensively. Against the Lions, they were without five starters on defense, and another, safety Julian Love, left the game with a thigh injury. On a short week, it remains to be seen how many of these players will return.
While the Seahawks’ injuries are concerning, they’ll be facing a significantly worse offense than they did in Week 4.
Although Malik Nabers has been sensational for them, the Giants enter Week 5 just 23rd in EPA per drive and 26th in yards per play. Outside of him, New York doesn’t have enough weapons in the passing game to beat Seattle’s secondary.
So far this season, the Giants’ second-most targeted wide receiver, Wan’Dale Robinson, has an average depth of target of 4.8 yards — third lowest among 93 wide receivers with 10 or more targets.
The Chiefs Haven’t Been Playing Well, But They Keep Winning
While the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0, they look like how the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles did at this point in the season — a team lucky to be undefeated.
Despite being one of two remaining unbeaten teams, the Chiefs are seventh in point differential. With Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, however, it’s a safe bet to assume Kansas City will eventually turn it around.
The Chiefs get a home matchup against a reeling New Orleans Saints team that might have been crowned as The Greatest Show on Turf 2.0 a bit too early.
Through two weeks, the Saints led the NFL in EPA per drive and average yards per play. In Weeks 3-4, they plummeted to 23rd and 24th, respectively, in each of those categories.
During this stretch, Derek Carr has been pressured on 38.5% of his dropbacks, more than double the percentage from Weeks 1-2. A big factor here has been the injury to Cesar Ruiz, which has left a hole in the Saints’ interior offensive line.
Unfortunately for New Orleans, they’ll be facing one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL in Chris Jones, so life won’t get any easier for Carr if Ruiz remains out.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ offense remains a concern, especially without Rashee Rice, but it’s more of a long-term situation for the rest of the season than a short-term one.