Anyone still alive in their survivor leagues should be very proud of themselves. We’re only three weeks into the season, but the largest favorite every week has lost outright so far for the first time in over 70 years. Furthermore, underdogs of six or more points this season have a combined record of 12-5.
If you haven’t been eliminated in your survivor league yet, however, there is still a long way to go, even if most of your pool is out already. For those of you still alive, let’s dive into our recommended strategy for your NFL survivor picks.
Survivor Strategy for NFL Week 4
For this week, we have four teams favored by 6+ points, and they each appear as the most attractive options of the week despite the underdog trend mentioned earlier. To help you narrow down your choice, we’re going to rank them in order of confidence for survivor.
Trust the 49ers in a Bounce-Back Spot, Even Despite Their Injuries
The San Francisco 49ers are the biggest favorites on the slate despite blowing a 21-7 second-half lead against the Los Angeles Rams last week.
Even with injury questions to a number of their star players on offense, I feel good enough about Kyle Shanahan and company bouncing back here.
For one, after going against Aaron Rodgers, an improved Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford, they’ll have a much more favorable quarterback matchup with Jacoby Brissett.
Not only is Brissett a below-average quarterback, but he has perhaps the worst supporting cast in the NFL. The Patriots’ offense ranks dead last in yards per game and 30th in points scored.
For a struggling 49ers defense, this should be a bounce-back spot at home against a very poor unit. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy still had a very efficient day without three of his four top weapons, instilling confidence going forward in him and San Francisco’s offense regardless of their health.
Back the Chiefs Against a Depleted Chargers Team
Usually, it’s hard to back teams playing on the road and going against a division rival in survivor, so the Kansas City Chiefs are breaking two rules here. However, there is always extra context to consider, and there is plenty of it with this pick.
Mainly, the Chiefs are going against a Los Angeles Chargers team that is decimated with injuries.
Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, and Joey Bosa all left last week’s game with injuries and didn’t return. On top of that, Derwin James is suspended. You can argue those are the Chargers’ most important players with the exception of Khalil Mack.
If the Chargers were healthy, I would have some reservations about backing the Chiefs here, but Los Angeles’ injuries play a major role here. Even if they do suit up, they won’t be close to 100%, and they’ll be playing a KC team that has yet to play its best football so far — which we all know they are capable of.
The… New York Jets?!
Yes, the New York Jets are a solid survivor pick this week — something that hasn’t been said very often in the last 14 years.
Not only did Rodgers look like his old self last week, but the Jets will be going into this game with extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football. They also get to play a bad Denver Broncos team despite the upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.
Bo Nix had a solid performance last week, but it came against a Buccaneers defense missing Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, and Antoine Winfield Jr. — three of Tampa Bay’s best defensive players.
Now, Nix will have to go against a Jets unit that has bounced back as one of the NFL’s best following a poor Week 1 outing against the 49ers.
The Texans Should Take Care of Business Against the Jaguars
After the Jacksonville Jaguars got blown out on Monday Night Football, taking the Houston Texans against them in survivor seems like an obvious pick, but one I’m slightly less confident in than the others.
For one, there is much familiarity with the Texans and Jaguars as division rivals. While that same argument is true with the Chargers and Chiefs, it’s a brand new coaching staff in Los Angeles.
Ironically enough, the last time these two teams played each other in Week 12 of last season was Trevor Lawrence’s last win. Since then, he’s lost eight straight games.
Although Houston is 2-1, they’re coming off a 27-point loss as road favorites to the Minnesota Vikings, and the Texans’ offense is surprisingly just 22nd in EPA (expected points added) per drive.
After two consecutive games against the Chicago Bears and Minnesota defenses, however — two top-six units by EPA per drive — this should be a bounce-back spot for Houston against Jacksonville’s 29th-ranked unit.