Another week of NFL action… Another major upset with the most selected team in survivor leagues. According to SurvivorGrid.com, an absurd 30.5% of survivor-league participants were eliminated in Week 2 when the Las Vegas Raiders upset the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
If you managed to advance in your league to make it to today’s article, then congrats!
Here’s a closer look at my survivor picks for Week 3 with some additional strategy over the next month of the season.
Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 3
In case this is your first time playing in a survivor league, the upset losses for the Bengals and Ravens through the first two weeks of the season are a brutal reminder that even the biggest favorites can get knocked off on any given Sunday.
As mentioned last week, simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis — which will normally include some of the best teams in the league — might feel like a safe strategy, but it doesn’t exactly guarantee you’re going to advance.
If you simply combine the two biggest upsets over the first two weeks of NFL action and their respective selection percentages on Survivor Grid, then an absurd 68.2% of survivor-league participants could already be eliminated in your league.
This could provide you with an opportunity to legitimately win your league if you select a contrarian selection while another big upset takes place in the next few weeks.
In fact, picking another team with a favorable matchup but a slightly lower spread could greatly position you to capitalize in your survivor league if a major upset happens, like it did on Sunday. Of course, this strategy does come with a bit more risk, but it’s one worth considering depending on how many contestants are remaining in your individual league.
This is why I’m here to provide you with some additional long-term strategies to help optimize your weekly picks, position yourself to win now and later, and, ultimately, hoist your survivor league championship trophy.
I don’t particularly have any unbreakable rules when selecting games, but I have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
I want to be clear, these rules aren’t gospel. This doesn’t mean you can’t pick a divisional matchup when making your weekly selection. Just be cognizant of the fact that opponents who are very familiar with one another could play out a bit differently than you expect if you’re just looking at team records.
Additionally, we really want to do everything within our power to avoid using teams that hold significant future value through the first five weeks of the season.
For example, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most selected teams that won through the first two weeks of the season. That means I will exclude them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation.
If you have any survivor questions specific to your league, please don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel so we can talk on that platform.
This appropriately brings us to the section where we start laying out our battle plan for the first month of the season. To accomplish that objective, here are two sets of strategies you could deploy to keep those teams available heading into October.
Strategy 1
Week 3: Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (vs. NE)
Week 5: Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, BUF, DAL, MIA, HOU
Strategy 2
Week 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DEN)
Week 4: New York Jets (vs. DEN)
Week 5: Chicago Bears (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
Top teams still available: KC, PHI, SF, MIA, BUF, DAL, HOU
In both strategies, you get to keep more than a handful of projected playoff teams with some elite options at quarterback available after the first month of the season, which really comes into play once bye weeks begin in Week 5.
Another popular strategy is to simply tail a terrible football team. I’m completely on board with this strategy, which means targeting teams we expect to struggle.
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos have really struggled on the offensive side of the ball.
Additionally, injuries to the quarterback position can always be an approach. The Miami Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a while after suffering a concussion against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.
However, the Green Bay Packers somehow orchestrated a competent offense around Malik Willis in Week 2, so this strategy isn’t exactly a surefire way to attack your weekly selection.
The Panthers’ surprise move to Andy Dalton under center could potentially help give Carolina’s offense a pulse. Yet, the defense has struggled so much through the first two games that a change under center may not be enough to make the Panthers competitive in most contests — which makes them an ideal team to tail on a weekly basis.
Chalk Picks for Week 3
A popular strategy survivor players love to use in larger leagues is picking against the “chalk” (code for choosing a significant favorite) to help maximize your chances of winning if a big upset takes place — just like it did on Sunday with the Ravens losing to the Raiders.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 3, according to Numberfire.com.
Here are the “chalk” picks that have my stamp of approval for Week 3.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. CAR)
The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t exactly a team that inspires a ton of confidence on a weekly basis, but they’re coming off an impressive road win against the Ravens, who many consider to be a Super Bowl contender.
Another aspect of this recommendation has to do with just how bad the Panthers have been on both sides of the ball through the first two games.
Panthers Team Stats Per-Game Average (League Rank)
- Points Scored: 6.5 (Last)
- Points Allowed: 36.5 (Last)
- Total Yards Per Game: 176.0 (Last)
- Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 364.0 (25th)
- Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 199.5 (31st)
These numbers are brutal and suggest Carolina could struggle to be competitive on a weekly basis unless things get turned around in a hurry.
The Raiders have struggled to get the running game going through the first two games of the season, but I could see Antonio Pierce leaning heavily on Zamir White and Alexander Mattison while continuing to pepper both Davante Adams and Brock Bowers with looks in the passing attack.
Another question you want to ask yourself is when do you think there will be another opportunity to confidently use Vegas as your selection this season?
Keeping quality teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills in your back pocket for later in the season could pay big dividends down the road. How you help yourself down the road is taking advantage of an opportunity like this with a Raiders team playing at home against the worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DEN)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 2-0 start to the season becomes even more impressive when you look at just how banged up they were during their upset win against the Lions in Detroit on Sunday.
Tampa Bay was either completely without or lost multiple starters during the game on Sunday — Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, Kalijah Cancey, and Vita Vea — and still managed to hold the Lions to just 16 points at Ford Field on Sunday.
Now they will be tasked with playing against a struggling rookie quarterback in Bo Nix who has four interceptions and no touchdown passes through the first two games of the season. Now, Nix will be facing off against an aggressive Todd Bowles defense that has kept both Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff in check through the air to start the season.
The Bucs could be vulnerable to opposing passing attacks who can punish Bowles’ blitzing nature on the back end, but the Broncos’ collection of pass catchers — Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims — haven’t shown the ability to burn opposing secondaries through the first two weeks.
Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career and should get Goedeke back this week, which should help the offense produce enough points to outduel Nix at Raymond James Stadium.
Contrarian Pick for Week 3
Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
The Cleveland Browns haven’t looked great through the first two games of the season, but they did manage to get things straightened out enough on both sides of the ball to come away with the win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Fortunately, they draw a matchup against the mistake-prone Daniel Jones under center — which should play perfectly into the hands of Cleveland’s defensive strength.
Malik Nabers is the best — and perhaps, only — big-playmaking threat that should scare this talented Browns secondary. If they are able to limit Nabers’ impact on the game, then the Giants will either be forced to lean on Devin Singletary in the running game or have Jones distribute the ball effectively to his ancillary options in the passing attack — which includes Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt.
I don’t feel confident Jones will be able to play a clean enough game to generate points consistently against this stout secondary.
Deshaun Watson wasn’t great against the Jaguars, but this Giants defense just gave up 226 passing yards to a rookie (Daniels) last week and could struggle to slow down Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore while having to deal with the combination of Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman on the ground — who combined for 106 rushing yards on 21 carries against Jacksonville’s formidable front seven in Week 2.
Expect the Browns’ defense to generate all kinds of big plays defensively against Jones and produce enough offense against a middle-of-the-road Giants defense in Week 3.