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    NFL Week 12 Trends and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes For Every Game

    We are onto Week 12 of the NFL season and with that comes the beginning of bye weeks. What does this slate hold for fantasy managers, bettors, and casual fans? Let's dive in!

    Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, trends, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 12.

    We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.

    Bye Week Schedule

    • Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
    • Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders

    All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (TNF)

    Pittsburgh Steelers

    Team: This is the first of four road games in a five-week stretch for the Steelers. The last time they had such a run was in the middle of the 2020 season (they swept the five games as part of an 11-0 start to the season).

    QB: In Weeks 7-8, Russell Wilson’s quick release rate was 42.1%. Since then, that rate has ballooned to 68.8%.

    Offense: In Wilson’s first two starts this season, the Steelers averaged 9.1 net yards per pass. However, that rate is down to 5.4 in the last two games.

    Defense: The Steelers lost consecutive games in Weeks 4-5, allowing the opposition to pick up 56.7% of third downs in those games. In the four games since, they’ve held opponents to a 31.1% conversion rate on third downs.

    Fantasy: George Pickens has cleared 16 PPR points in three of four games with Russell Wilson, pacing for a 94-1552-8.5 stat line over those games if extended for a full season.

    Betting: The Steelers have covered five of their past six games played on short rest, and the under has come through in all five of those instances.

    Cleveland Browns

    Team: This is the first of three games played on three different days of the week for Cleveland (Thursday, Monday, and Sunday).

    QB: Jameis Winston completed six of seven passes against the blitz last week, racking up 150 yards and a score in the process.

    Offense: Cleveland averaged 41.3 yards gained per drive against the Saints on Sunday, their highest average since Week 3 of last season.

    Defense: In Weeks 1-6, the Browns blitzed on 34.5% of opponent dropbacks, a rate that is down to 22.6% since.

    Fantasy: Jerry Jeudy is seeking a fourth straight game with 70-plus receiving yards. The only Brown with such a streak within a single season since 2016 is Donovan Peoples-Jones (2022).

    Betting: Jameis Winston is just 12-22-2 ATS (35.3%) in his past 36 road starts.

    Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

    Minnesota Vikings

    Team: This is the final of a three-game road trip before playing three straight in front of their home fans (Cardinals, Falcons, and these Bears).

    QB: In Weeks 7-9, Sam Darnold completed 82.3% of passes when not pressured – over the past two weeks, that rate is down to 64.2%.

    Offense: Against the Titans on Sunday, the Vikings punted on a season-high 41.7% of their drives (two weeks prior: 19%).

    Defense: This Minnesota defense has taken full advantage of three sub-par offenses (Colts, Jaguars, and Titans) over the past three weeks, allowing only three red zone trips.

    Fantasy: Aaron Jones has four straight games without a 15-yard run or a rushing score (72 rush attempts).

    Betting: Each of Minnesota’s past five divisional games has gone over the total (they are 1-4 ATS in those games).

    Chicago Bears

    Team: Starting this week, the Bears will play only three different teams over the next five weeks (Vikings—Lions—49ers—Vikings—Lions).

    QB: Caleb Williams has weaknesses, but he has completed 15-of-19 passes (78.9%) when blitzed over the past two weeks.

    Offense: The Bears picked up a season-high 56.3% of their third downs against the Packers on Sunday (three games prior: six-of-40, 15%).

    Defense: Chicago was only able to pressure Jordan Love on 28.6% of his dropbacks last week, the worst rate this defense has posted since September.

    Fantasy: Three players have at least five rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line this season: Jalen Hurts (eight), David Montgomery (five), and Roschon Johnson (five).

    Betting: The Bears have covered each of their past two home divisional games, a streak coming on the heels of failing to cover seven straight such games.

    Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

    Detroit Lions

    Team: A road dome game this week before three straight home games (Bears, Packers, and Bills).

    QB: Jared Goff now has five games this season with multiple passing scores and no more than five incompletions, the first player to do that in the 2000s. In fact, the only other QB with five such regular season games since the start of 2021 is Lamar Jackson.

    Offense: David Montgomery’s TD plunge on the first drive extended Detroit’s streak to 24 straight games with a rushing score.

    Defense: That’s now four straight games in which the Lions have held the opposing QB to a sub-70 passer rating (Jaguars, Texans, Packers, and Titans).

    Fantasy: Since Week 3, 26 players have seen more targets than Amon-Ra St. Brown, but only five players have more receptions, and Ja’Marr Chase is the only player with touchdown catches over that stretch. During this scoring streak, St. Brown has three times as many TDs (nine) as targets that have hit the ground (three, 51 catches on 54 targets).

    Betting: Detroit has covered eight of their past 10 games as a road favorite.

    Indianapolis Colts

    Team: The Colts have been competitive at home (they beat the Bears, Steelers, and Dolphins, and two losses to the Texans and Bills were by a total of 12 points). They don’t host another game until Week 16.

    QB: Anthony Richardson completed five of seven passes (71.4%) against the Jets when blitzed, a big step forward from his 28.1% completion percentage in such spots prior.

    Offense: Indianapolis has improved their third down conversion rate in three straight games (15.4% – 27.3% – 36.4% – 40%).

    Defense: The Colts didn’t allow the Jets to have a goal-to-go drive, the first time they had such an effort this season.

    Fantasy: Since the start of last season, Anthony Richardson has more rushing touchdowns than Aaron Jones and the same number as Lamar Jackson.

    Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the last nine games in which the Colts have been a home underdog.

    New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

    New England Patriots

    Team: New England lost to the Jaguars by 16 in London in Week 7. Since then, they have gone 2-2, with three of those games decided by a single possession.

    QB: Protect the franchise centerpiece, and we might be onto something. Drake Maye has completed 34- of-40 passes (85%) over the past two weeks when not pressured.

    Offense: Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have settled for seven field goals on their 10 red zone drives.

    Defense: New England has allowed opponents to convert just three-of-22 (13.6%) third-down conversions over the past two weeks.

    Fantasy: Since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, there is a three-way tie atop the league in terms of games with at least 18 rushing yards and a passing score: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Maye all have five such games.

    Betting: Since 2013, the Patriots are 2-9 ATS (18.2%) when playing in Miami.

    Miami Dolphins

    Team: After this week, half of their remaining games come with weather concerns:

    QB: In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa’s average depth of throw was 9.6 yards. Last season, it dipped to 7.6 and thus far, in 2024, it sits at 5.6 (Week 11 vs. Raiders: 4.9).

    Offense: For the second time in as many weeks, the Dolphins offense didn’t have a single play run while trailing.

    Defense: Over their past three games, the Dolphins have allowed just three touchdowns on 11 red zone trips.

    Fantasy: In Tua Tagovailoa’s four games back, De’Von Achane has caught 23-of-25 targets (17-game pace: 98 receptions).

    Betting: Tagovailoa has covered nine of his past 12 divisional games, but it rarely comes without a sweat (average cover margin: +2.7 points).

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Team: Tampa Bay has lost four straight games – they haven’t lost five in a row in a single season since 2017, a year in which they had a pair of five-game skids

    QB: Only Tua Tagovailoa has a higher quick pass rate than Baker Mayfield this season (73% of his attempts are thrown faster than the league average).

    Offense: The Buccaneers are averaging 36.2% more points per drive this season than last.

    Defense: Tampa Bay has allowed a touchdown on 27.4% of drives this season (27th, they finished last season ranked 12th at 18.5%).

    Fantasy: Remember in 2022 when Mike Evans entered the final week of the season needing 83 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak going, and Tampa Bay funneled the offense his way (10-207-3 against the Panthers)? He needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get there this season.

    Betting: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the week following their bye in three straight (and five of the past six) seasons.

    New York Giants

    Team: New York has faced 332 dropbacks and 275 passes – they have one interception.

    QB: Daniel Jones is the only QB with five games in a single season with 35-plus pass attempts and zero touchdowns – we aren’t even at Thanksgiving yet.

    Offense: New York owns the worst red zone offense in the league, turning just 39.3% of their trips inside the 20-yard line into six points. For reference, Tampa Bay is getting home 68.4% of the time.

    Defense: From Weeks 7-10, no team blitzed more often than the Giants (37%, a significant bump from their 26.8% rate through six weeks that ranked 14th).

    Fantasy: Tyrone Tracy Jr. has 107 carries for 545 yards and three scores this season – Saquon Barkley had 508 yards and five touchdowns on his first 107 carries for the Giants.

    Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Giants are 3-10 ATS at home.

    Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

    Dallas Cowboys

    Team: Following this week, three of their next four games are home primetime contests:

    QB: Cooper Rush threw for over 300 yards against the Texans, the first undrafted QB to reach that mark this season. Last season, Nick Mullens and Jake Browning each accomplished that feat three times.

    Offense: KaVonte Turpin reached a max speed of 22.36 MPH on his first-half touchdown against the Texans, the fastest-measured ball carrier this season.

    Defense: The Cowboys allowed multiple first-quarter touchdowns on Monday night, the third time they’ve done that this season. Dallas has won the first 15 minutes twice for the year (Weeks 1 and 4).

    Fantasy: CeeDee Lamb already has five games this season with 10-plus targets and zero touchdowns — that matches a career-high for him and the most by a Cowboy during the 2000s.

    Betting: Over tickets have cashed in seven of Dallas’ past nine games as an underdog in a divisional game.

    Washington Commanders

    Team: Washington has two home games up next against teams not positioned to compete for the playoffs (Dallas and Tennessee). They are 4-0 this season in such spots with a +60 point differential.

    QB: In Weeks 9-11, Jayden Daniels’ average distance of throw is just 5.3 yards, down from 8.1 through Week 8.

    Offense: During their current two-game losing streak, the Commanders have reached the red zone on just 21.7% of their drives (Weeks 1-9: 48.8%).

    Defense: Since Week 7, Washington is forcing a three-and-out on 37.7% of opponent drives (Weeks 1-6: 22.2%).

    Fantasy: Brian Robinson Jr. has run for seven touchdowns on 117 carries this season (career prior: seven rushing scores on 383 attempts).

    Betting: Rookie quarterbacks are 10-3-2 ATS (76.9%) in their past 15 games played on extended rest (Washington kicked off Week 11 on Thursday against Philadelphia).

    Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

    Kansas City Chiefs

    Team: First of three straight games in which they are a favorite on the look-ahead line of more than six points.

    QB: Patrick Mahomes has completed just 31.8% of his pressured pass attempts over the past two weeks (first nine weeks: 53.7%).

    Offense: Kansas City managed just 259 yards of offense in Buffalo on Sunday, their lowest total since Week 9, 2021 (237 yards in a 13-7 win over the Packers).

    Defense: In Weeks 8-11, the Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on 29.7% of drives (Weeks 1-7: 18.3%).

    Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Isaiah Pacheco is averaging 18.45 PPR PPG over his past 10 games (that would be RB5 this season, just ahead of Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs).

    Betting: This is only the fourth time that Patrick Mahomes is facing a team coming off a bye during the regular season—the Chiefs have covered each of the previous three instances.

    Carolina Panthers

    Team: 1,158 days ago, the Panthers, led by Sam Darnold and DJ Moore, beat Davis Mills’ Texans, earning their third straight victory. They are attempting to win a third straight game for the first time since.

    QB: Through 21 career starts, Bryce Young stacks up with some – interesting names.

    • Young through start #21: 72 passer rating, 15 TD, 16 INT, 5.4 yards/attempt
    • Zach Wilson through start #21: 71.8 passer rating, 15 TD, 17 INT, 6.5 yards/attempt
    • Ja’Marcus Russell through start #21: 70.9 passer rating, 15 TD, 13 INT,6.3 yards/attempt
    • Brandon Weeden through start #21: 70.7 passer rating, 22 TD, 27 INT, 6.4 yards/attempt

    Offense: Carolina averages a league-low 5.06 plays per offensive drive this season,12% below the league average.

    Defense: The Panthers are creating pressure on 24.2% of opponent dropbacks, the lowest rate since the 2023 Falcons (24.1%).

    Fantasy: From Weeks 4-10, Chuba Hubbard was the only running back in the NFL to run for 95 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.0 yards per carry in three separate games (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. were the other backs to have multiple such games over that stretch).

    Betting: Unders are 9-4 in Carolina home games since the beginning of last season.

    Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

    Tennessee Titans

    Team: The 2-8 Titans are getting close to a third straight double-digit loss season, something this franchise hasn’t done since they were the Houston Oilers (1983-86).

    QB: Will Levis averaged a career-high 9.5 yards per pass on Sunday against the Vikings (topping his 9.3 YPA in Week 11 last season – consider this your reminder to bet on Levis in Week 11’s!).

    Offense: The Titans’ yards per pass have increased in five straight games (Sunday vs. Vikings: 9.5).

    Defense: The Titans have allowed a touchdown on 12 of 14 opponent red zone trips.

    Fantasy: 66.9% of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s fantasy points (PPR) have come on touchdowns this season.

    Betting: Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.

    Houston Texans

    Team: Three of Houston’s remaining six games come against either Tennessee or Jacksonville, a pair of divisional opponents with whom they’ve won nine of 13 games since the start of 2021 (+60 point differential in those contests).

    QB: The return of Nico Collins was felt, but it didn’t result in a singular focus of C.J. Stroud. In the first half of Monday Night Football, he had 19 targeted throws, and six different players saw multiple opportunities.

    Offense: Joe Mixon has a rush TD in six straight games, matching the franchise record.

    Defense: Houston has not allowed a first-quarter point in three straight (and five of their past six) games.

    Fantasy: In 31 gems from 2022-23, Joe Mixon scored 23-plus points three times — he’s done it in five of his eight games as a Texan.

    Betting: Houston has failed to cover five of their past six games when hosting a divisional game.

    Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

    Denver Broncos

    Team: The Broncos are 6-3 after an 0-2 start, with their three losses coming against the Chargers, Ravens, and Chiefs (the latter two on the road).

    QB: Against the Falcons on Sunday, Bo Nix completed seven of eight passes for 175 yards and a touchdown when throwing 10-plus yards downfield (first 10 weeks: 38% complete on such passes).

    Offense: Denver is 5-1 this season when they score a touchdown on over 50% of their red zone trips and 1-4 otherwise.

    Defense: The Broncos have allowed under 60 rushing yards twice this season—in Week 10 at the Chiefs (57 yards) and Sunday against the Falcons (50).

    Fantasy: Bo Nix has a pair of finishes inside of the top 5 at the position over the past four weeks, matching the total of such finishes that Josh Allen has for the season.

    Betting: Denver is 5-2 ATS in their past seven divisional games. The bad? Their cover against the Raiders in Week 5 was their first since the franchise since Week 17 of 2020.

    Las Vegas Raiders

    Team: After this week, Vegas embarks on a weird stretch in which it plays three games in three different cities on three different days of the week.

    QB: Gardner Minshew has thrown 17 passes over his past two games when pressured, netting 38 yards in the process.

    Offense: The Raiders ran play-action on 19.4% of their plays last week against Miami, the first time they reached even 17% in a game this season.

    Defense: The Raiders have allowed opponents to pick up 28 third downs over their past three games (first seven games: 24).

    Fantasy: On Sunday, Brock Bowers recorded his second game with at least eight catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. He joins Mike Ditka (1961) and Robert Awalt (1987) as the only rookie tight ends to have multiple such games.

    Betting: The Raiders have covered four straight home divisional games.

    San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

    San Francisco 49ers

    Team: Since 2021, the 49ers have had the best point differential in games played in Week 12 or later (+219 in 21 games).

    QB: In the two games with Christian McCaffrey back, Brock Purdy’s average depth of throw is down to 6.3 yards (Weeks 1-9: 9.5).

    Offense: San Francisco is scoring on a higher percentage of its drives this season (48%) than last (45.1%), but the way it is scoring is different.

    • 2024: 22.5% TD rate and 25.5% FG rate
    • 2023: 32.4% TD rate and 12.7% FG rate

    Defense: On Sunday against the Seahawks, the 49ers forced a punt on a season-low 25% of drives.

    Fantasy: Jauan Jennings is the first player to see double-digit targets in consecutive games from Brock Purdy.

    Betting: San Francisco is 3-8 ATS against the NFC North since the beginning of 2020, playoffs included.

    Green Bay Packers

    Team: Since 2000, the Packers have won 80% of their games played Week 12 or later (second best, Bills: 88%).

    QB: Jordan Love has a first-half passer rating of 77.6, an underwhelming number given his 106.5 mark after intermission this season

    Offense: The Packers averaged 8.5 yards per play against the Bears (they only had seven drives for the entire game), their highest rate since Week 11, 2021 (8.6 yards per play in Minnesota).

    Defense: Opponents are six-of-six on fourth down against the Packers over their past three games (first seven games: four-of-nine, 44.4%).

    Fantasy: Since the beginning of October, Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs are the only running backs with at least 18 rush attempts and 20 receiving yards in three games.

    Betting: Unders are 9-4-1 in the past 14 games played at Lambeau Field.

    Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

    Arizona Cardinals

    Team: Arizona has won four straight games, their longest streak since opening the 2021 season with seven consecutive victories.

    QB: Kyler Murray’s passer rating on deep throws this season is 110.6, up from 44.7 a year ago.

    Offense: In Weeks 1-6, the Cardinals averaged 8.1 air yards per throw, but that rate has dipped to 6.2 yards since (23.5% decline).

    Defense: Arizona has the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48% conversion rate; only the Panthers have been worse).

    Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr. has played in 10 games this season. If you remove one quarter from one game, his current 17-game pace is 50 catches for 628 yards and seven touchdowns (for reference, that’s almost 2023 Brandin Cooks: 54-657-8).

    Betting: Unders are 5-1 in Kyler Murray’s last six road starts against a divisional opponent.

    Seattle Seahawks

    Team: Seattle is in a dogfight in the NFC West where finishing fourth and first are both still very much in the realistic range of outcomes. They finished third a season ago – they haven’t had consecutive finishes of third or worse since 2008-09.

    QB: Geno Smith will make his errors, but on Sunday, he excelled at taking what was given by completing all 19 of his passes thrown less than 10 yards down the field.

    Offense: In Week 7, the Seahawks used play-action on 17.9% of their offensive snaps. In Week 8, that rate dropped to 12.8%. In Week 9, it fell again to 12.2, and, coming out of the Week 10 bye last week, they went that direction just 8.5% of the time.

    Defense: Seattle has allowed three of their past four opponents to pick up the majority of their third downs (Sunday at SF: 63.6%).

    Fantasy: Since 2019, four receivers under the age of 23 have strung together consecutive games with at least seven catches and 110 receiving yards: Ja’Marr Chase (twice), Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Jaxon Smith-Njiigba (current).

    Betting: Seattle is 1-6 ATS in their past seven home divisional games and have seen under tickets come through in 10 of their past 13 such games.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (SNF)

    Philadelphia Eagles

    Team: The Eagles are allowing pressure on a league-high 41.2% of non-pressured dropbacks this season.

    QB: Jalen Hurts now has at least 11 rushing touchdowns in three straight seasons. Some players without three such seasons on their NFL resumes include Christian McCaffrey, Jerome Bettis, Tiki Barber, and Arian Foster.

    Offense: While their touchdown rate is nearly identical to where it stood through 10 games a season ago (28.4% of drives this season, 28.6% last), Philadelphia’s goal-to-go efficiency is up from 68% to 88.2%.

    Defense: The defense is why this team can avoid a collapse like last season. Through 10 games this season, they own a 34.7% third down rate and 46.4% red zone conversion percentage (2023: 43.2% third down and 62.5% red zone).

    Fantasy: Saquon Barkley is the fifth player since the 1970 merger with at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 scores in his first 10 games with a franchise, joining Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Adrian Peterson (2007), Eric Dickerson (1983), and Billy Sims (1980).

    Betting: Under tickets have come through in each of the past six instances in which the Eagles played on extended rest.

    Los Angeles Rams

    Team: This will be the Rams’ 21st primetime regular season game since the beginning of 2020. In the previous 20, they’ve scored 406 points and allowed 406 points.

    QB: Matthew Stafford has 10 touchdown passes in the four games since his star receivers returned (6.6% of his attempts, Weeks 1-7: 1.5%).

    Offense: Over the past two weeks, the Rams have an 86.7% red zone pass rate, spiking from 48.3% through Week 9.

    Defense: This unit is willing to adjust based on the matchup – after consecutive weeks with a single-digit blitz rate, they brought an extra defender 37% of the time on Sunday against the Patriots, their third-highest rate of the season.

    Fantasy: If you extend Puka Nacua’s past five regular season games in which he has been on the field for at least half the offensive snaps, his 17-game pace is 126 catches for 2,071 yards and seven scores.

    Betting: Since the start of 2020, unders have been 15-5 when the Rams play in primetime.

    Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)

    Baltimore Ravens

    Team: Over the past decade, the Ravens (25-10, 71.4%) have the highest winning percentage in primetime games in the league.

    QB: Lamar Jackson completed just 48.5% of his passes in Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, the second-lowest mark of his career in a game with at least 30 passes thrown.

    Offense: Derrick Henry is the fourth player since the 1970 Merger with an 11-game TD streak to open a season:

    • 1975 O.J. Simpson (14 straight)
    • 1987 Jerry Rice (12 straight)
    • 1983 John Riggins (12 straight)

    Defense: Baltimore’s defense wasn’t to blame for the Week 11 loss in Pittsburgh – they allowed just nine points on four red zone trips.

    Fantasy: Zay Flowers leads the league in games with 110-plus receiving yards (four) and ranks fourth in number of games with at least six targets and under 40 receiving yards (three).

    Betting: Lamar Jackson has covered eight of his past 10 primetime games, covering by an average of 8.8 points over that run.

    Los Angeles Chargers

    Team: Los Angeles’ average point differential this season is +7.5, tracking for their best year since 2009 (that team went 13-3 with a +8.4 average point differential).

    QB: When this game kicks off, it will have been 400 days since the last time Justin Herbert threw a second-half interception (Week 7, 2023).

    Offense: Since Week 7, the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yards per play, up from the 4.8 yards per play they averaged through six weeks.

    Defense: Since Week 7, the Chargers’ pressure rate has increased from 35.2% to 35.9% despite dropping their blitz rate from 26.3% to 19.8%.

    Fantasy: Four players this season are atop the leaderboard in terms of games in which they scored a rushing touchdown, caught a pass, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahlyb Gibbs, and J.K. Dobbins all have four such games.

    Betting: Justin Herbert’s first career start on extended rest and on primetime went over the total. He’s played six such games since – all have gone under the number.