The draft is the appetizer, but with the NFL schedule release now in the rearview, the picture of the 2025 regular season is coming into focus. Plenty will happen between now and September (cuts, injuries, etc.), and that’ll impact our league outlook in a meaningful way. That said, given how physical this sport is, putting data to the value of the bye week is an evergreen topic of note.
NFL Schedule Release: Bye Week List
- Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons
- Week 6: Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans
- Week 7: Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens
- Week 8: Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 9: Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 10: Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 11: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
- Week 12: Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 13: None
- Week 14: New England Patriots, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers
NFL Schedule Release: The Impact Of The Bye Week
This time of year, the narrative is always the same – how will the timing of bye week impact the final NFL standings? So why not put some numbers to it and see if teams have actually benefited?
I took a look at the pre/post-bye week over the past four seasons, the four years since we shifted to a 17-game regular season. My initial thought was that we would see a slight uptick in the value of later bye weeks. Who really needs to take a week off in early October if it means that they then have to for three months uninterrupted?
From a human nature perspective, I still think that’s right. That said, from a results standpoint, it turns out that the good teams are just good, no matter when the bye week occurs.
In each of the past three seasons, the 18 teams that haven’t made the playoffs have had, on average, a later bye than the 14 playoff teams, and it really hasn’t been close. I tend to think this sort of data is a little random, but all six of the Super Bowl participants over the past three years have had their bye in Week 10 or earlier (four of them having their off week in the first half of the season).
Instead, the argument could be made in the opposite direction – that an early bye week is actually advantageous.
Wait, what?
In this day and age, where quality of travel and recovery isn’t a concern at the NFL level, the data hints there is value gained from having an early bye and thus maximizing the benefit of the self-evaluation process. Game weeks are so formulaic and typically feature more game planning for the upcoming opponent than truly deep diving what your team is doing – I’m not sure that’s wrong, but an early bye week allows you to correct any flaws before they result in a mid-season skid that ultimately dooms you.
There were four playoff teams last season that entered their bye week with a .500 or worse record (Eagles, Chargers, Rams, and Buccaneers). Those four teams held a 9-14 record (39.1% win percentage) pre-bye and a 36-9 mark (80%) post-bye.
That’s obviously a dramatic one-year sample, but the graph above shows a pattern that is at least worth monitoring. In these four seasons, five of the eight Super Bowl invitees were better post-bye than pre.
NFL Schedule Release: Fantasy Football Spin
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
I just laid out the reason why an early bye week is good for win equity, and I buy that, but that doesn’t mean all of their fantasy assets benefit. James Cook saw his stock soar down the stretch of last season, and that played a large part in me having him ranked as a top-10 RB prior to the release of the schedule.
I’ve soured just a touch, moving Christian McCaffrey and Chase Brown ahead of him. That spike in production a year ago came on the heels of a Week 12 bye, a well-timed breather that allowed him to get his second wind at the perfect time. His top-3 games last season (minimum 13 touches) in terms of production above expectation came following the off week, but he’s not going to benefit from such a pure run out this winter.
Instead, Buffalo goes on bye in mid-October. Not only does the schedule prohibit him from peaking physically late in the year, the fantasy postseason schedule does him no favors (at Patriots, at Browns, and home against the Eagles in Weeks 15-17). The Bills are always going to be in a position to thrive offensively, but those matchups could result in a decline in opportunities, especially if there’s a level of fatigue that sets in.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Of the top-24 receivers who are playing for the same team this year as last, Smith had the greatest dropoff in PPR PPG when playing within his division when compared with his season average (-31.9%).
The Eagles draw just one divisional opponent in Weeks 13-17, allowing him to avoid those common opponents who have a track record of slowing him down. Smith could enjoy a strong finishing kick, and I like how his matchups project in the middle of the season just as much.
- Week 6 at Giants
- Week 7 at Vikings
- Week 8 vs. Giants
- Week 9 BYE
- Week 10 at Packers
- Week 11 vs. Lions
The bye week comes in a spot where there won’t be many fantasy viable WRs on bye, so replacement level should be high enough to help you through the off week. Surrounding the bye are nothing but advantageous spots. I think it’s safe to pencil in the Birds for 24+ points in each of those five games, and the deeper you dive, the better it looks.
Not all play-calling schemes stick year-over-year, but four of those five games come against a top-5 blitz rate defense from a season ago. Why is that worth noting?
Smith ranked ninth of 89 qualified receivers in PPR points per blitzed target in 2024, giving fantasy managers 46.9% more points per look than AJ Brown in such spots. He’s now comfortably inside of my top-30 at the position and gets the benefit of the doubt over WR1s on teams with question marks under center (Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Chris Olave).
If you’re curious, the other three receivers on that list who saw a dip of at least 20%: CeeDee Lamb (-22.1%), Puka Nacua (-24%), and Jerry Jeudy (-24.8%). As for the other side of that coin, the top-3 overachievers against the division last season were Drake London (+32.1%), Ja’Marrr Chase (+28.6%), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+27.4%).
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
I’m not comfortable in saying we know exactly who Love is as a pro just yet, but I think we have a decent idea. He’s not the most consistent signal caller out there, but he does seem to benefit when given time to take a deep breath and process.
Over The Past Two Seasons
- Pre-Bye: 83.8 passer rating, 59% complete, 1.4 TD/INT
- Post-Bye: 104.7 passer rating, 66.9% complete, 5.7 TD/INT
Green Bay being in the very first wave of bye weeks means that he gets a month to develop and then a week to adjust before the final 12 weeks of the fantasy season. The schedule is backloaded with NFC North games that always have the chance to shoot out along with home games against Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
The Packers are going to need Love to take a step forward if they want to build on the success from last season, and with the way the schedule lines up, he’s going to have to put on a show at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
He remains locked into an extended third tier at the position that extends from QB9 through QB18, but he’s in the front half of that tier and could push Baker Mayfield for the top spot within that range by the time draft season is here.