At the time of writing, there are four games left in the regular season, and the race for the NFL rushing title is heating up. Prior to Week 14, Derrick Henry is at the forefront of the NFL rushing leaders. However, several other players still have a chance to catch him. So, let’s look at the top five running backs currently competing to have the most rushing yards at the end of the 2020 season.
Using the OVM to help predict who will be NFL rushing leader at the end of the season
To help us evaluate these five running backs, we will be using the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to measure how effective a player was given the circumstances that surrounded them.
Of course, the OVM can’t tell us who will win the rushing title this season. After all, a more effective player can still be outgained by a player who is given significantly more carries. That said, the OVM can provide insights into why certain players might have a better chance at winning than others.
Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are the frontrunners to earn the most rushing yards in 2020
Going into Week 14, Henry and Cook are the clear leaders in the race for the NFL rushing title. They are the only two players with more than 1,000 rushing yards, and they are both above that milestone by a wide margin. Henry currently has a slight edge, with 1,317 yards compared to Cook’s 1,250.Â
However, the data shows that Henry’s lead isn’t necessarily the result of his superior play. Cook’s statistics are actually better in numerous areas. He is averaging 0.1 yards more per carry than Henry and slightly less than four additional yards per game this season. Had Cook not missed Week 6 with a groin injury, he might be sitting above Henry at this point in the season.
Comparing the two NFL rushing leaders’ OVM grades before Week 14
The OVM further establishes Cook as the better-performing player. His overall OVM grade of 13.88 is a small, but not insignificant, amount larger than Henry’s grade of 12.2. That difference emerges for two primary reasons.
First, that Cook has faced more resistance than Henry has. Opposing defenses have stacked eight or more defenders in the box against him 32.67% of the time. For Henry, that number is 27.31%. Second, Cook is averaging 0.87 more yards than expected (also known as rush yards over expectation, or RYOE) on each carry, according to the NFL’s advanced metrics. Meanwhile, Henry’s total sits at 0.63 yards.
Put in less technical terms, Cook has been given less space to work with on average but is making the most out of the room he does have. Given an equal number of opportunities, he should produce more yards than Henry. The only question is whether there is enough time left in the season for him to overcome the current deficit.
Henry and Cook’s weekly OVM grades tell a slightly different story
Henry does have one edge over Cook in an area related to the OVM. Below, you can see a pair of charts displaying Henry and Cook’s OVM grades from each week of the season. The black dots represent those grades, and the yellow line represents the league average OVM grade for running backs in 2020.
As you can see, Henry’s grades have increased dramatically over the last several weeks. Meanwhile, Cook’s grades have held relatively steady. It is possible that, should Henry continue trending upwards, he might surpass Cook’s overall OVM grade by season’s end.
The dark horse candidates among the NFL rushing leaders before Week 14
James Robinson
Undrafted rookie James Robinson makes a surprise appearance with the third-most rushing yards going into Week 14, with 968. That is significantly behind both Henry and Cook. However, for a player that few had even heard of going into the season, being on this list is a phenomenal accomplishment.
However, despite Robinson being the closest to Henry and Cook on paper, he has arguably the worst statistics of any of the five running backs mentioned in this article. His OVM grade is the least impressive of any of them, at just 10.05. That low grade is largely the result of Robinson facing eight or more defenders just 18.87% of the time and averaging a paltry 0.14 RYOE per carry.
Both of those statistics rank lowest among these five. In short, Robinson has faced less resistance than any of the other top-five running backs and hasn’t taken advantage of that extra room at all. That doesn’t bode well for his chances in top-heavy competition for the rushing title.
Ronald Jones II
The player with the next most rushing yards in 2020 is Ronald Jones II. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back has totaled 820 rushing yards, already surpassing his previous career-high. However, as with Robinson, I wouldn’t bet on Jones to win the rushing title. His average yards per game of 68.3 is easily the lowest of the top five running backs, and his OVM grade of 10.91 is only slightly higher than Robinson’s.
Jones’ ROYE per attempt is relatively high at 1.19 yards, but, like Robinson, he hasn’t faced much defensive resistance. Defenses have stacked the box against him 22.84% of the time. Playing at that level, he would need a ludicrous number of carries in Week 14 onwards to overtake the NFL rushing leaders.
Nick Chubb
In some ways, Chubb is the most likely candidate to make a surprise run at the rushing title. Although he has only totaled 799 yards this season, he has the highest average yards per game of any of our three dark horse candidates, at 99.9. Meanwhile, his OVM grade of 13.53 is higher than anyone on this list other than Cook. Chubb’s advanced statistics are also impressive. He has faced eight or more defenders around the line of scrimmage 33.83% of the time. Despite that, he is still averaging a stellar 2.18 RYOE per carry.
Unfortunately, Chubb also has one significant disadvantage. He splits carries with Kareem Hunt, who currently ranks tenth in the NFL with 739 rushing yards. As such, while Chubb is having an excellent season in many ways, his chances of finishing it with the most rushing yards are slim. Although, given the relatively short lifespan of NFL running backs in the NFL, Chubb’s current situation might be better for his career overall.
Going into Week 14, the two frontrunners are truly competing for the NFL rushing title
If we are being honest, Robinson, Jones, and Chubb are all quite unlikely to win the rushing title. At this point in the season, they simply have too much ground to make up. Doing so would probably require injuries to the two leaders, and even then, it would take a Herculean effort.
Take Robinson as an example. Even if Henry and Cook sat out the remainder of the regular season, he would still need to average 87.25 rushing yards over his last four games in order to take the lead. Currently, his per-game average sits at 80.7. Jones and Chubb, being further behind, have an even more difficult road.
As such, the contest for the most rushing yards in 2020 will most likely come down to a tight race between Henry and Cook. The advanced metrics indicate that Cook has an excellent chance of winning. However, Henry’s current lead gives him an undeniable advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if the winner isn’t decided until the final week of the season.
Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.
