When it comes to NFL preseason picks and predictions, we can often ignore trends and statistical analysis and focus on storylines.
With teams all looking to achieve different things, figuring out which stages they are at can help you make a handsome profit over the three weeks.
With that in mind, let’s review the Week 1 NFL preseason games remaining and give my picks, predictions, and best bets across the slate. Please remember that preseason betting is extremely variable, and the majority of these predictions and picks are simply for fun.
Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Preseason
Washington Commanders (-3) vs. New York Jets
- Moneyline: Commanders -162; Jets +136
- Total: 34.5 (Over -110; Under -110)
The Washington Commanders’ roster seemingly has question marks as they adapt to a new coaching staff and a quarterback overhaul. That will mean preseason should carry more weight for them compared to a New York Jets team that knows many of its starting pieces.
The Commanders are likely to play their first-string options for longer, so betting them to win the first quarter or the first half. Holding on in the latter stages is a different question, but when you start higher on the depth chart, you end up playing the bottom of your depth chart for less time.
Prediction: Commanders 17, Jets 10
Chicago Bears (-1) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Moneyline: Bears -125; Bills +105
- Total: 38 (Over -108; Under -112)
The Chicago Bears offense was fun under Brett Rypien’s guidance in the Hall of Fame game, and it seems like there is quite a battle for Caleb Williams’ backup spot. We will not see much of the Bears’ starting unit, but that will be the same for the Bills. This should be a fairly even game, and the spread here is pretty much spot on.
However, the Bears seem to have more depth competition, and that showed in the way they played last week. I believe they are looking to build some positive feelings around the franchise, so I have them just sneaking out a win.
Prediction: Bears 20, Bills 17
Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: Raiders -198; Vikings +164
- Total: 39 (Over -112; Under -108)
Intriguingly, this is a game between two teams with quarterback question marks. With numerous competitions across both rosters, it could be the most entertaining game of the week. It is going to be fascinating to see how the teams handle it with their splits in terms of playing time in the next few weeks.
Could we have a preseason Alexander Mattison revenge game on our hands? His role on the offense is certainly not a lock, and he will be desperate to stake his claim. If sticking it to Minnesota is part of that, he might just have a little extra motivation.
Prediction: Raiders 20, Vikings 17
Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Packers +154; Browns -185
- Total: 39.5 (Over -112; Under -108)
We go from two teams with lots of question marks to two more settled teams in the game between the Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns. The storylines here are a little together to figure out and we could see a lot of depth options getting snaps, which could lead to some sloppy play.
Not knowing exactly how much we might see of various players will make this a tough game to call. I am backing a lower-scoring game, and I believe there is more for the likes of Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson to prove than for anyone in a crucial role on the Packers.
Prediction: Browns 16, Packers 10
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
- Moneyline: 49ers +185; Titans -225
- Total: 38.5 (Over -112; Under -108)
The San Francisco 49ers will enter the preseason with a good idea of several of their starting options, so we could see them taking the preseason lightly. Last season, they were beaten pretty comfortably in two of their three games, as they tended to test out their depth more so than their opponents.
The Titans are in a very different situation, with uncertainty over a number of their offensive roles. Most importantly, they have Will Levis as their starter, but Mason Rudolph will be desperate to prove he deserves that role. It feels like Tennessee has more to play with more starters, but are those starters considerably better than the 49ers’ depth?
Prediction: Titans 21, 49ers 17
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Chiefs +110; Jaguars -130
- Total: 40.5 (Over -108; Under -112)
The sportsbooks are convinced this will be a high-scoring game, and when you look back at the Chiefs’ preseason from 2023, you can see why. All three of their games last year went over 45 points, and they seem to play their preseason games at a pace that increases opportunities.
The intriguing element will be how much we see either Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence on the field with their new WRs over the next few weeks.
I think this could be a fun game to watch, even if we do not ultimately learn much from it. The spread here is pretty accurate, and that 40-point region is also fitting.
Prediction: Jaguars 21, Chiefs 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +180; Bengals -218
- Total: 38.5 (Over -108; Under -112)
With new faces on both of the offensive lines in this game, we could see them playing some extended time as they look to build chemistry. Outside of that, there are not many major question marks for either team to answer, making it tough to work out the potential flow of this game.
We are very unlikely to see the Cincinnati Bengals’ stars, and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are unlikely to do much.
I will always take Jake Browning over John Wolford, so the Bengals’ first-half line is intriguing, especially if we find out for definite that Mayfield is not playing (which seems likely). Over the course of the full game, this should be fairly even, but the Bengals could have the better first 30 minutes.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Buccaneers 17
Seattle Seahawks (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Moneyline: Seahawks -135; Chargers +114
- Total: 35 (Over -108; Under -112)
The Seattle Seahawks brought in Sam Howell this offseason, and he has a lot to prove. In Howell and PJ Walker, the Seahawks have a really nice backup pairing to play these games. There is also a lot of competition for roles behind the starters on this offense, and the OL may want some time to gel.
With Justin Herbert injured, the Los Angeles Chargers have some intriguing decisions to make. Do they protect Easton Stick a little, or is this a competition between Stick and Max Duggan? The Chargers’ offensive weapons also have a lot to scrap over, with roles available at WR and RB.
The intriguing subplot here is the John Harbaugh connection. Does Ben Macdonald believe in his mentor’s preseason philosophy? Does Jim Harbaugh view preseason the same way as his brother? This game could be quite interesting on Saturday night.
Prediction: Seahawks 20, Chargers 17
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: Saints -130; Cardinals +110
- Total: 37 (Over -110; Under -110)
This game feels like it could be fairly ugly, especially if Kyler Murray and Derek Carr do not play much. The Cardinals have the more intriguing backup option, especially with Desmond Ridder fighting for his NFL career in 2024. Combine that with major question marks over the WR roles, and the Cardinals’ offense could be the higher-octane of the two.
The Saints’ depth does not look all that exciting, and this feels like a game the Cardinals should play well in. Last year, the Saints won their first two preseason games, but they had Winston fighting in that backup spot. Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler feel like a downgrade from Winston and Haener.
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Saints 17
Denver Broncos (-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Broncos -130; Colts +110
- Total: 38 (Over -110; Under -110)
My guess here is that we will not see much of Anthony Richardson for the Indianapolis Colts in preseason.
With an injury-hit start to his NFL career, Richardson is unlikely to be risked too heavily in the preseason. If he does play any snaps, it will likely be a very controlled offense with little or no scrambling. Then the question becomes how much we see Joe Flacco at this stage of his career, or will it be the Sam Ehlinger show?
In Denver, there is fierce competition all over this roster. The QB situation has three contenders, then there are four contenders at RB, and there are pass-catching slots to be earned. The Broncos offense could be very interesting during the preseason, and it could make them very competitive throughout games.
Prediction: Broncos 21, Colts 14
Dallas Cowboys (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Cowboys -205; Rams +170
- Total: 35 (Over -112; Under -108)
The Dallas Cowboys being four-point favorites confuses me. We are not going to see much of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jake Ferguson if anything.
In fact, there are large chunks of this roster we may not see. Now, the Rams are hardly about to throw out their top players, either, but it feels like they have more questions to answer.
Usually, a line this high suggests that the sportsbooks see a major motivational factor or trend in play. I personally do not see anything compelling, so would look for the Rams to cover the four points. There is not enough here for me to proclaim any great best bet, but the line just feels off based on what I can work out storyline-wise.
Prediction: Cowboys 17, Rams 14
Preseason Week 1 Best Bets
- Bengals 1H -2.5 -120
- Falcons -2.5 -115