There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets.
With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage.
Here are my top NFL player props for Week 3.
Note: This article will be updated live throughout the week as I add more props to the card.
Last Update: Saturday, Sept. 21 at 8:00 p.m. ET
The Best Week 3 Player Props and Betting Lines To Target
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).
For example, if your unit is $10, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $12 to win $10. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $10 to win $12.
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news.
What makes this year’s version of this article so great is it will be published early in the week as soon as I have so much as a single official play. Then, throughout the week, I will constantly update it in real-time as I place more bets.
The problem with many betting articles is they have stale lines. It does all of you no good if I tell you on Saturday about a prop I bet on Wednesday at a line you can’t get anymore.
KEEP READING: Top 10 Sports Betting Strategies
To ensure you know when the most recent additions occurred, the very top of this article will let you know when it was last updated. If you’ve viewed it after that point, you know you’ve seen everything. To see everything the moment I bet it, you can follow me on Pikkit @KatzFF.
I will update my record every week. In 2023, I went 121-99, +12.64 units. In 2022, I went 176-129, +35.66 units.
The last two years, the first few weeks were mostly a feeling out period. We hovered around even until things started to get rolling. This year was quite different.
We came out blasting in Week 1 with what may end up being the most profitable week of the year. Week 2 was another successful one. We went 8-5, +3.06 units on regular props and 0-1, -0.5 units on anytime touchdown bets.
Through Week 2, we are 19-9, +9.71 units on regular props, and 2-5, -0.85 units on anytime touchdown bets. We really couldn’t ask for a better start.
Let’s keep the positive vibes rolling for Week 3.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Tank Dell over 1.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM, 2u)
Folks. We have our first 2-unit play of the season. I don’t understand this line at all.
Through two weeks, Tank Dell has five carries for 35 yards. He’s gotten multiple carries in each of his first two games.
This week, Joe Mixon is trending toward not playing. Dameon Pierce is also out with a hamstring strain. Cam Akers is not about to carry the ball 25 times. I expect Dell to see even more snaps out of the backfield in something like a Deebo Samuel-lite role. Simply put, we need two yards.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Baker Mayfield under 246.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM, 1u)
I think this notion that the Bucs just throw the ball is a bit misguided. Baker Mayfield only attempted 30 passes Week 1 against the Commanders. He was able to throw for 289 yards because the Commanders have the worst pass defense in the league.
In Week 2, Mayfield only attempted 19 passes against the Lions. While that game was lower scoring than expected, it was still more conducive to passing than this week will be.
The Broncos have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards through two weeks. Rachaad White may be one of the worst runners in the league, but the Bucs should still be able to run the ball with Bucky Irving.
This does not project to be a heavy pass-volume game. Mayfield will need to hit on a couple of big throws for this to go over. I like our odds with the under.
Bet: Bucky Irving over 28.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel, 1u)
This is a line I had been waiting on all week. Last week, we hit on Bucky Irving over 20.5 rushing yards just barely. He finished with 22. That was against a tough Lions run defense.
As I mentioned in the Mayfield bet above, the Broncos struggle against the run. Irving is a better runner than White. I expect him to see at least 6-8 carries in positive game script. He could see even more if the Bucs are salting away a decent fourth quarter lead.
I think it’s only a matter of time before Irving overtakes White as the primary runner, with White shifting to more of a satellite back role, given his abilities as a receiver. This may be the lowest we see Irving’s rushing line for a while.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Bet: Trey Sermon under 10.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings, 1u)
In Week 1, Trey Sermon did not touch the ball. He played two snaps.
In Week 2, Sermon played extensively in the fourth quarter, but that was because the Colts were in negative game script and trying to come back. He played 32% of the snaps, but still saw just two carries, the second of which came after the game was pretty much out with just over two minutes remaining and the Colts trailing by two touchdowns.
Unless this game is a complete blowout one way or the other, I would truly be shocked if Sermon had a single carry.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
Bet: Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown (-105 at DraftKings, 0.5u)
Through two weeks, Josh Jacobs has 48 carries for 235 yards. He has yet to score. That is bound to positively regress and we want to be ready when it does. I think it happens this week.
The Titans surrendered three touchdowns to Jets running backs last week. Although two of them were through the air, those count just the same.
There’s an outside shot Jordan Love can return this week, which would only serve to bolster Jacobs’ chances. I expect this line to get worse, as DraftKings is already off from the market with the next best available line I could find at -125.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Jauan Jennings over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM 1u)
I am jumping on this line early, as I expect it to rise. The 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr. this week. All of a sudden, too many mouths to feed has become too few.
Brandon Aiyuk should get peppered with targets, but his line is already a bit inflated. George Kittle is also poised for a big day, as he historically smashes when one of Aiyuk or Samuel is absent.
With Samuel out, Jauan Jennings is set to start in two-receiver sets opposite Aiyuk. Jennings has seen four and five targets the first two weeks, and has gone over this line in both games.
The Rams were completely torched by Kyler Murray last week, allowing 266 yards through the air. Jennings should see 5-6 targets in this one. I like his chances to hit 40+ receiving yards.
Bet: Kyle Juszcyk over 11.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Kyle Juszcyk has gone over this number in each of his first two games. In both of those games, Deebo Samuel played. He is not playing this week.
The Juice already played over 50% of the snaps in each game this season. Last week, he ran 19 routes. I can see him being even more involved this week.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Jalen Tolbert over 25.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
I’m not super confident in this one, but there’s clear value here.
Jalen Tolbert saw the heaviest volume of his career last week, catching six of nine targets for 82 yards. The Cowboys also faced a severe negative game script the entire time. That won’t be the case most weeks.
.@Jalen8Tolbert adjusts to make the catch! What a play.
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/puC66HTdUJ— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Even so, Brandin Cooks is 30 years old. The team wants Tolbert to emerge as the WR2. He finally showed signs last week.
This bet is a bit chasing last week’s production, but it’s not as if the number reflects the performance. Tolbert actually led the Cowboys in routes run last week. This could end up being us getting ahead of a shift in the hierarchy amongst the Cowboys’ wide receivers.
At this low of a number, combined with FanDuel lagging behind other books in jumping this line, I’m willing to take the chance.
I think Tolbert ends up finishing at 30+ yards.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Bet: Skylar Thompson under 196.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Skylar Thompson has only made three career starts. In those stats, he’s thrown for 166, 152, and 220 passing yards. The 220 passing yards was in the playoff game against the Bills, and it took him 45 pass attempts to get there.
Through two weeks, the Seahawks have held Bo Nix to 138 yards and Jacoby Brissett to 149 yards. If your first inclination is to say those aren’t exactly prolific passers, and Seattle’s pass defense may not actually be that great, you’re not wrong.
Thompson falls somewhere between Nix and Brissett (likely closer to Nix). The Dolphins are likely to go with a very De’Von Achane-heavy game plan in an effort to hide their quarterback.
Given the state of passing in the NFL right now, fading one of this week’s weakest starting quarterbacks seems like a good idea.
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Bet: Miles Sanders under 7.5 rush attempts (-128 at FanDuel, 1u)
I don’t necessarily love laying -128 on a singular prop. However, this line was considerably better than anywhere else, with it being -140 at DraftKings.
Eight rush attempts is a lot for any backup running back. Miles Sanders is one of the worst backup running backs in the league.
The Panthers have been blown out in each of their first two games. Sanders’ carry counts were five and seven. I expect the Panthers to be much more competitive this week with Andy Dalton under center. They may not win, but the game shouldn’t get so out of hand that Chuba Hubbard is taking the entire fourth quarter off.
Last week, Sanders had just four carries in the first three quarters. His other three attempts came with the game well out of reach in the fourth quarter. I struggle to see a scenario where this game plays out in such a way where the Panthers are able to feed their backup eight carries.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Dak Prescott over 9.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel, 1u)
Every once in a while, I stumble across a nice nugget of information that pushes me toward a bet. I’d be lying if I said it always worked out. But the information compelled me to do a little more research, and I’ve decided to roll with it.
Obviously, Ed Werder’s information is accurate. But it’s even better than that.
Prescott had 10+ rushing yards in two of his first five games last season. After the blowout Werder references, and Dak’s pledge to run more, he had at least 10 rushing yards in nine of his next 10 games.
Essentially, this prop boils down to me trusting Prescott when he says he will run more. I am certain sportsbooks are not adjusting lines based on this comment. That doesn’t mean Prescott will definitely run more, but it does mean we have an edge.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Bet: Carson Steele under 1.5 receptions (+115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Whenever there is mass uncertainty, there is opportunity to capitalize. We did just that with our awesome start to the season in Week 1, believing we knew better than the books.
Changes like the major one the Chiefs are experiencing with Isiah Pacheco going down creates uncertainty. We don’t know what’s going to happen with this backfield. But neither do the books.
This bet is predicated on my belief that Carson Steele is not going to be nearly the clear lead back the lines suggest. I think Kareem Hunt ends up being active and we get some ugly 50-40-10 split between Steele, Samaje Perine, and Hunt.
Most importantly, I don’t think Steele is going to catch a single pass in this game. Perine was already the receiving back. With Steele now likely to operate more on early downs, I fully expect him to play most, but not all of first and second downs. When he is in the game, I’m anticipating he is carrying the ball. I expect very few routes run.
Plus, we have the added benefit of what if we’re wrong about the split in this backfield? What if it’s Perine as the lead back and Steele only playing in short yardage and obvious running situations? There are a lot of ways this bet goes right and not many in which it goes wrong.
Bet: Drake London longest reception under 21.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM, 1u)
Through two weeks, I’m sufficiently convinced that Drake London is very good at football, and his problem in 2023 was Arthur Smith/Desmond Ridder. London was instrumental in the Falcons’ comeback win over the Eagles on Monday night.
With that said, Kirk Cousins still isn’t all the way back. He underthrew several passes, including at least one to London that could’ve led to a larger gain. That was London’s 19-yard reception last week, his longest of the season.
Obviously, at some point, London will secure a 22+ yard reception. But this probably not the spot, barring something flukey happening.
Through two weeks, the Chiefs have made their pass-defense plan clear — take away the opposing team’s top receiver. They did it in Week 1 with Mark Andrews. They did it in Week 2 with Ja’Marr Chase.
Between those two games, Andrews’ longest reception was 11 yards, Zay Flowers’ longest reception was 19 yards, and Chase’s longest reception was 13 yards.
I expect the Falcons to lean pass-heavy in this one, but for London to see a lot of targets underneath, as the Chiefs look to take away anything over the top. He may end up going over his receptions and yardage lines without a single reception of 20+ yards.
Bet: Ray-Ray McCloud over 29.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
This one is a bit correlated to the London bet. There’s definitely a chance we can lose both. But if I’m right, we’ll probably win both.
When I see a line that doesn’t make sense based on what we’ve seen so far, two thoughts pop into my head. One is that I’m being suckered and I’m missing something. The other is that props are a soft market, and the factors that go into generating these lines aren’t properly accounting for everything. I hope this is the latter.
Ray-Ray McCloud has gone well over this mark in each of the first two weeks. He caught four of seven targets for 52 yards in Week 1, and three of five targets for 42 yards in Week 2.
More importantly, though, the Falcons went to a much heavier 11-personnel set in Week 2. That led to McCloud’s snap share spiking from 54% in Week 1 to 100% in Week 2. His route participation rate was 97% against the Eagles.
Given how I think the Chiefs will play London, that should open things up for McCloud. We saw Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson have success throwing to their ancillary offensive weapons against this defense. There’s a chance McCloud can do this on two receptions.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Bet: Travis Etienne Jr. over 46.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
This is one I implore you to get on early. The Bills at home. They are favored. Game script could be a concern here. But this line is way too low. At the time, it was 49.5 at DraftKings and 51.5 at Caesars and BetMGM.
The Bills allowed both James Conner and De’Von Achane to reach 50+ rushing yards. While Etienne is not quite as good as either of them, 47 is such a low bar against a team allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Tank Bigsby got hurt in last week’s game, leading to increased snaps for Etienne. While Bigsby is likely to play this week, knowing there’s a chance he could aggravate an injury and come out of the game only increases the value of this bet.
Bet: Trevor Lawrence longest completion under 34.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
The Bills have made a commitment defensively to not let anyone beat them deep. Through two games, the longest passing play they have allowed has gone for 24 yards.
Trevor Lawrence does have a strong deep threat in Brian Thomas Jr. However, I expect the Bills to do what they’ve been doing — continue deploying their two-high safety look and force opponents to dink and dunk.
As always, a receiver could catch a short and one and bust off a long run. That’s always a risk. But unless that happens, I don’t expect many downfield shots in this one.
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Brian Robinson Jr. over 50.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
I don’t like how many overs we’ve taken, but it’s where the edges seem to be this week. I will continue picking on the Bengals run defense until they give him a reason to stop.
So far, the Bengals have let Rhamondre Stevenson run for 120 yards against them and Isiah Pacheco for 90 yards. Brian Robinson Jr. is an underrated runner. He struggled against the Bucs’ strong run defense in Week 1. But in Week 2, he torched the Giants to the tune of 17 carries for 133 yards.
This bet isn’t without risk, though. The Commanders are touchdown underdogs. If this game gets out of hand, they will stop running, and we will see a lot more of Austin Ekeler.
The Bengals haven’t quite looked like themselves yet. While I do think they figure it out eventually, as long as this game stays within one score for at least 2.5 quarters, Robinson should see enough work to hit this number.