There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for Week 2.
**This article will be updated live throughout the week as I add more props to the card.**
Last Update: Sunday, September 15 at 6 a.m. ET
The Best Week 2 Player Props and Betting Lines To Target
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).
For example, if your unit is $10, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $12 to win $10. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $10 to win $12.
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. What makes this year’s version of this article so great is it will be published early in the week as soon as I have so much as a single official play. Then, throughout the week, I will constantly update it in real-time as I place more bets.
The problem with many betting articles is they have stale lines. It does all of you no good if I tell you on Saturday about a prop I bet on Wednesday at a line you can’t get anymore.
KEEP READING: Top 10 Sports Betting Strategies
To ensure you know when the most recent additions occurred, the very top of this article will let you know when it was last updated. If you’ve viewed it after that point, you know you’ve seen everything. To see everything the moment I bet it, you can follow me on Pikkit @KatzFF.
I will update my record every week. In 2023, I went 121-99, +12.64 units. In 2022, I went 176-129, +35.66 units.
The Week 1 card was larger than I would have preferred it to be. The last two years, the first few weeks were mostly a feeling out period. We hovered around even until things started to get rolling. This year was quite different — we came out blasting!
Through Week 1, we are 11-4, +6.65 units on regular props, and 2-4, -0.35 units on anytime touchdown bets.
We really couldn’t ask for a better start. Let’s keep the positive vibes rolling for Week 2.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Bet: Zach Ertz’s longest reception under 13.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM, 1u)
I like to go back to the well on certain props until sportsbooks adjust. Zach Ertz going under 13.5 for his longest reception last week was an easy call against a solid Bucs pass defense. It’s a big riskier against a very soft Giants defense that did allow a 22-yard reception to Vikings TE Josh Oliver last week.
With that said, we have to take value where it exists. This line should not be 13.5. And at most books, it isn’t.
Caesar’s does have it at 13.5, but the under is -120. DraftKings has it at 12.5 -115, and FanDuel is at 11.5. The MGM line is the best on the market for a player who will still need to get lucky to really do anything beyond a reception of around 10 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Bet: Bucky Irving over 20.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel, 1u)
If I am getting suckered, I will gladly let it happen. This line doesn’t make any sense.
Last week, Bucky Irving was more than just a breather back. He had nine carries, which he turned into 62 yards.
Rachaad White is still the starter, and Irving is not about to take that job. However, I do think it’s only a matter of time before Irving begins to out-carry White while White continues to do what he does best and excels in the passing game.
Irving is a vastly superior rusher to White, who remains one of, if not the worst pure runner in the NFL. In the same game, White turned 15 carries into 31 yards. If that inefficiency continues, and history suggests it will, White will carry the ball more.
I expect Irving to see 6-8 carries this week. The Bucs are definitely a pass-funnel defense, but he can top this number on three carries.
Soppe:
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown with more receiving yards than Mike Evans (-150 at DraftKings)
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mike Evans to clear 150 receiving yards total (-115 at DraftKings)
Taylor is my single favorite player on the board this week to back, though he’s not the only star I like to rebound from a less-than-ideal Week 1 and pay off optimistic bettors in a major way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was handcuffed by the Rams on Sunday Night Football, and Jameson Williams took over. Having a reliable shorter yardage option like St. Brown in the mix helped draw attention off of Detroit’s burner, and Jared Goff took advantage.
Of course, that impact can go both ways – the increased attention to Williams will help give St. Brown more room to operate underneath. I expect that role to very much be featured in this spot against a Bucs rush defense that, since Week 5, ranks fourth in EPA against running backs.
Over that same stretch, Tampa Bay’s vulnerable secondary (one that is very banged up at the moment) ranks among the five worst in the league in Passer Rating, yards per attempt, and … slot YAC.
Week 1, percentage of snaps in the slot
- St. Brown: 46.7%
- Kalif Raymond: 27%
- Williams: 25%
This is a sport of picking scabs, and given what Tampa Bay has put on film, it’s possible to see Detroit attack them in a similar fashion to how Ls Angeles used Cooper Kupp against them last weekend.
St. Brown averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game last season, also known as 189.4 yards every two games. I’m not saying he will be back on that pace for this season after Sunday, but I’m not saying he won’t (Week 1: 13 yards).
As for the other side of this game, Mike Evans should be able to produce, though my expectations aren’t as high for him as St. Brown. The sheer volume is rarely overwhelming for the future Hall of Famer (6.5 targets per game over his past six regular-season contests), and given the efficiency from Detroit’s ace (73.1% career catch rate), that makes keeping pace a tall order.
That’s not to say, however, that he will be contained. The Lions own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of throw against since the beginning of last season, giving at least one big play a feeling of inevitability. I’m layering my betting card in such a way that if I connect on one, I’m fine, and hitting both is very much in play.
For what it’s worth, St. Brown to lead the Sunday slate in receptions/receiving yards markets have yet to be released – you better believe I’ll be swimming around those numbers.
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Bet: Lamar Jackson under 30.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel, 1u)
Fair warning. I have not had good luck with pass attempt props. However, I cannot ignore the data on this one.
Lamar Jackson threw 41 passes last week in a game where the Ravens had to try and keep pace with the Chiefs. That is not the norm.
Last season, Jackson attempted more than 30 passes just six times all season. But that’s not the full story. In games the Ravens won by at least seven points, Jackson went over 30 pass attempts just twice. They won 11 games by 7+. The Ravens are nine-point home favorites over the Raiders.
Bet: Alexander Mattison under 25.5 rushing yards (-120 at FanDuel, 1u)
So much for Zamir White as the leadback. Head coach Antonio Pierce already said this would be a hot-hand situation. With Alexander Mattison as the primary passing down back, that should favor him, as he will have more opportunities to prove he is the hot hand.
The thing with Mattison is that he will likely succeed as a receiver if he does. On the ground, I still don’t expect him to see many carries. He only saw five last week and managed a total of 19 yards.
Given the Raiders’ two-score underdog status, they may be forced to throw more than they want. While that will put Mattison on the field, he won’t be touching the ball via handoffs but rather via receptions.
The Ravens held Isiah Pacheco to 45 yards on 15 attempts in a game where the Chiefs had a positive game script throughout. The Raiders’ projected negative game script, combined with Mattison’s inefficiency against a good run defense, all points to a low rushing yardage game for the former Viking.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Josh Oliver over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
The Vikings are really hurting at pass-catcher. Already down T.J. Hockenson for most of the first half of the season, they will now be without WR Jordan Addison. This team is perilously thin behind superstar WR1 Justin Jefferson.
The WR2 and WR3 this week project to be some combination of Brandon Powell and Jalen Nailor. With no clear standout, I expect the Vikings to utilize the full extent of their pass-catching depth to try and create whatever mismatches they can.
This could lead to more two-tight end sets. At the very least, I think books are mispricing Johnny Mundt, clearly being the preferred receiving tight end.
Mundt ran 16 routes to Oliver’s 10 last week. That is not a huge gap. Plus, it came in a game where the Vikings had a positive game script. That is unlikely to be the case against the elite 49ers offense.
In a more pass-heavy approach and without Addison, Oliver should run at least 15 routes. We only need one catch for nine yards to hit this over. Dating back to Week 15 of last season, Oliver has reached 14 receiving yards in five straight games. We only need nine.
Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers
Bet: Miles Sanders under 35.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
This is an area of prop betting I’ve attacked in the past, and I’m going after it this week. We have relatively low projected total yardage on backup running backs that I think will play less and perform worse than the lines suggest.
Miles Sanders certainly played more than expected last week, but I would hesitate to call this a timeshare just yet. Sanders’ first touch came at the very end of the first quarter. He handled a few in the second and then didn’t touch the ball again until the game was well out of hand in the fourth.
While no one expects the Panthers to defeat the Chargers, I do expect this game to be far more competitive than the 47-10 drubbing at the hands of the Saints last week.
Outside of a 31-yard touchdown reception by Alexander Mattison, the Chargers completely shut down the Raiders’ backs last week, both in the air and on the ground. I expect both Chuba Hubbard and Sanders to struggle this week.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
Bet: Malik Willis under 169.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM, 1u)
Bet: Malik Willis under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+155 at BetMGM, 0.5u)
Perhaps Malik Willis, who has been with the Packers for less than a month, is a revitalized player and makes me look really stupid for fading him. I’ve watched football for a very long time. I can count on one hand the quarterbacks I’ve seen who are worse than Willis. I have no idea how he is in the NFL, let alone on a roster.
Willis has thrown 67 career passes. His next passing touchdown will be his first.
Willis has made three career starts where he played 100% of the snaps. In all three games, the Titans implemented an extreme run-heavy game plan to avoid having him throw. His highest total passing yards in a single game is 99. For his career, Willis averages 5.2 yards per attempt.
Matt LaFleur is a very good head coach. We just saw the Colts defensive line get pummeled by the Texans offensive line and Joe Mixon. The game plan is going to be to feed Josh Jacobs.
Given that the Colts are only field goal favorites, this game is not expected to get out of hand. As long as the game is within reasonable reach, the Packers should continue to run the ball.
Finally, I think there’s a nonzero chance we see Sean Clifford enter this game at some point. I am probably going to regret not making the passing yardage under a 2-unit play.
Soppe:
Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Pick: Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards (+215 at DraftKings)
Pick: Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)
Anthony Richardson took our collective breath away last week with some of the viral highlights, and that is going to happen again at some point this season because he is that physically gifted. That said, the week after a performance like that could prove to be the time to invest heavily in Jonathan Taylor as the public flocks to the dynamic quarterback (and thus away from the traditional ground game).
Taylor posted the second-highest snap share of his career last week (95.3%), and that was in a game where this team entered the game feeling the pressure of keeping up with the high-powered Texans. With Jordan Love out, I think it’s fair to label the Packers as “non-high powered”, leading me to believe that the offensive game plan on Sunday will look considerably more conservative than it was in the season opener.
At the most basic of levels, Taylor has cleared 20 touches in each of his past five games where the closing over/under fell below 43 points, a near certainty for this game barring an unexpected return to action for Love … or Brett favre. The plan is for Malik Willis to start this game and that essentially locks in a low total, which, according to history, puts plenty of food on the plate of Taylor.
For his career, JT has 16 games with at least 20 touches as a favorite, and he has cleared 80 rushing yards in 13 of them (81.3%). But wait, there’s more. So much more.
Since Week 6 of last season, Green Bay has allowed the third most yards per carry after contact to opposing running backs (12.8% more than the average NFL defense over that stretch) and that makes this a true green light special. For his career, Taylor averages 129.9 rushing yards per game and rushes for at least one touchdown in 80% of games when getting 15+ carries and recording, by his standards, an above-average mark after contact.
I don’t expect there to be many “buy low” windows for Taylor props this season, and while his numbers aren’t cheap this week, they are lower than I would have had projected prior to the Week 1 loss. There isn’t a Week 2 world in which I won’t be exposed to Indy’s bellcow – DFS, props, and anything else I can find to bet on!
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s longest reception under 18.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM, 1u)
It’s always risky to read too much into Week 1. However, this is more about looking at Week 1 and seeing the same things we saw for 18 weeks in 2023.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was supposed to play a larger role in the Seahawks offense this season. And he is. But the way he’s being used looks strikingly similar to how he was used as a rookie when he posted a 6.1 aDOT and 9.5 yards per reception.
JSN caught 63 passes as a rookie. A mere eight of them went for 19+ yards.
In Week 1 of this season, it was the same usage for Smith-Njigba. He had a 3.0 aDOT and caught both of his targets for a total of 19 yards.
Additionally, the Patriots completely shut down the Bengals’ downfield passing attack. Joe Burrow completed a 28-yard pass to Ja’Marr Chase as his longest of the day. His next-longest completion was for 13 yards.
JSN is not Chase, and Geno Smith is not Burrow. Even if Smith-Njigba sees higher volume this week, he will likely need some serious yards after the catch work to go over this number.
Bet: Zach Charbonnet under 59.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Zach Charbonnet is a talented player. I fully expect the Seahawks to utilize him on the ground and through the air. He is a safe bet for 15+ touches. He may get 15 carries. But this is a large ask of him to get to 60 yards.
Last year, Charbonnet had a three-game stretch where he was the lead back, carrying the ball 15, 14, and 19 times. It took him 19 carries to get to 60 on the nose. The other two games, he totaled 47 yards each time.
The Patriots are not as good as the Bengals made them look, but they’re not a bad defense. This unit led the NFL with 3.3 yards per carry allowed last season. In Week 1, Zack Moss did manage 44 yards on nine carries. However, 16 of those yards came on one attempt. Other than that, he averaged 3.5 ypc.
Charbonnet would need to get to 4.0 ypc and carry the ball 15 times to reach 60 yards. He is unlikely to reach either milestone.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Bet: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+195 at DraftKings, 0.5u)
Bet: Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-115 at Fanatics, 1u) (Can also take over 57.5 at -115 on BetMGM)
Let me get this straight. We’re getting +195 odds on the clear lead and goal-line back for one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league to score a touchdown…against a defense that just allowed Kenneth Walker III to run for 103 yards on 20 carries…and score a touchdown. Yeah, sign me up.
Najee Harris handled 20 carries for 70 yards last week, and with Jaylen Warren not fully healthy, the Steelers are leaning on him even more.
Last week, Pittsburgh had 40 rushes against just 23 Justin Fields pass attempts. To be fair, 14 of those rush attempts were Fields himself. But the fact remains, this team wants to run.
I suspect they won’t be shut out of the end zone for a second consecutive week. The Steelers should feature another Harris-heavy game plan, enabling him to easily surpass this total and also score.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM, 1u)
In a deviation from the norm, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yardage line opened at 65.5 -120, but I did not want to pay that price. Waiting paid off as it moved a yard and 10 cents lower!
I was eyeing this one up from the moment I saw this matchup on the Week 2 schedule. So many factors point to a big game from Pacheco.
First, the Bengals are in disarray at the moment. Ja’Marr Chase is still ramping up. Tee Higgins is hurt. Joe Burrow doesn’t look like himself. All of this leads to them being touchdown underdogs in Kansas City.
The projected positive game script should allow the Chiefs to lean on Pacheco. Last week, they gave him 15 carries, but he only turned them into 45 yards against a tough Ravens defensive front. It should be a whole lot easier this week.
The Bengals really struggled against the run last season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, tied for second-most in the league. They also allowed 17 runs of 15+ yards, tied for third-most in the league. Pacheco carried the ball 18 times for 130 yards when these teams met in 2023.
Last week, this run defense did not look to be improved in 2024. The Bengals surrendered 120 yards on 25 carries to Rhamondre Stevenson.
All of this points to Pacheco stomping his way to a big game. If you’re feeling frisky, you can even sprinkle on Pacheco 100+ rushing yards at +400 on DraftKings.
Soppe’s Pick: Isiah Pacheco under 2.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings)
The late window is quite light this week, but that doesn’t mean we are without a lean. Patrick Mahomes has seen his aDOT decline on a consistent basis, but the Chiefs did all they could this offseason to reverse that trend, and Xavier Worthy certainly looked the part as an end to that mean.
We got a glimpse of that potential last Thursday night, and we might get it on full display in this spot against the defense that was attacked downfield with regularity last season (second-highest opponent, aDOT). Cincy is unlikely to move Mahomes off his spot with a below-average blitz rate, and that means one of two things—calculated shots down the field or an extended opportunity for the Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce tandem to get open.
Neither of those outcomes project well for Isiah Pacheco’s outlook in the passing game, a role that is at risk of slowly diminishing as Samaje Perine gets worked up to speed (Pacheco held a 22-8 edge in routes last week, 3-2 in targets). Also factoring into the math here is that Pacheco might just dominate in a traditional way – the Bengals rank 26th in defensive rush EPA against RBs since the beginning of last season.
He’s a great fantasy football option and a versatile back capable of handling any role Andy Reid throws at him. I’m just not sure that’ll be needed in this spot. In essence, I’m treating Pacheco’s target share like Mahomes’ rushing share — it’s there in high-leverage spots but not a focal point until a specific situation calls for it.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans
Bet: Stefon Diggs under 56.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings, 1u)
Last week, we got a gift with Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards line set at 60.5. The books are adjusting after his six-catch, 33-yard outing…but they haven’t adjusted enough.
Diggs is going to be useful for the Texans’ offense. He can still win underneath and looks to be the primary aerial read near the goal line. That’s perfectly fine, he can rack up all the receptions he wants underneath.
Diggs’ longest reception last week was 10 yards. Meanwhile, the Bears held Will Levis to a longest completion of 15 yards, and the Titans’ leading receiver, Calvin Ridley, was held to 50 yards.
Obviously, C.J. Stroud and the Texans are a far more imposing offense. They also have two other excellent receiving weapons and a top running back. If Diggs is involved significantly once again, I’m expecting a similar game to last week where he has something like 5-7 receptions for 30-50 yards.