NFL Player Props Week 1: Sunday’s Picks Include Diontae Johnson and Bijan Robinson

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for Week 1.

Week 1 NFL Player Props To Target

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.

Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 15.5: -110 (BetRivers) 0.5 Units

It’s no secret that the Cardinals are tanking. It’s no secret that they are projected to be the worst team in football. However, I think sportsbooks are underestimating how bad the Cardinals are actually going to be.

By the looks of it, Josh Dobbs is going to start in Week 1. This team is on the road against a solid Commanders defense. And they’re going to score more than two touchdowns?

My prediction is that by October, the Cardinals’ weekly team total is around 12.5. This number is too high.

• My line
  15.5 -110 (BetRivers)
• Current line
  14.5 -108 (DraftKings)
• Highest price I’d pay
  -120

Desmond Ridder Under 197.5 Passing Yards: -115 (DraftKings)

Last year, the Falcons ran the ball more than any team in the NFL. This year, they spent the eighth overall pick on the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Does this strike you as a team that intends to let their third-round sophomore QB air it out in the first week?

The Falcons are field goal home favorites against the Panthers. Even if they lose this game, I highly doubt the game script will get away from them. They will be able to run the ball. Absent a couple of big plays from Drake London or Kyle Pitts, we are going to see a whole lot of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the ground. I think Desmond Ridder finishes somewhere between 170 and 180 passing yards.

• My line
  197.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  198.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Lowest I’d go
  190.5

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 57.5 Rushing Yards: -115 (DraftKings)

This line seems awfully low. Normally, that would give me pause, but I think there’s a very good explanation for this. The preseason buzz surrounding Tank Bigsby is causing some trepidation as it pertains to Travis Etienne.

That’s fair and warranted for fantasy football managers. But from a betting perspective, we don’t really care if Bigsby is taking passing-down or goal-line work.

Etienne is still the lead back for this team. Head coach Doug Pederson said he anticipates Bigsby’s role growing as the season goes on. Well, it’s Week 1. This is going to be the Etienne show.

The Jaguars are favored on the road against the Colts. The game script should favor them, enabling Etienne to see somewhere in the range of 13-15 carries, at a minimum — 20+ is certainly on the table.

Etienne started taking over as the lead back for the Jaguars in Week 5 of last season. He went over this number in eight of his next 12 games (I am excluding the game in which he got hurt after five snaps). This includes a game against the Colts where he ran for 86 yards.

Last season, Etienne averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Even at 4.0 YPC, he would only need 15 carries to hit the over.

• My line
  57.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  55.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Highest I’d go
  59.5

Chase Claypool Under 15.5 Receiving yards: -110 (DraftKings)

Every year, the NFL likes to gift us with seemingly low totals for wide receivers who aren’t good enough to play in the NFL. Last year, that guy was Kenny Golladay. But it only lasted two weeks before they realized he was not actually going to catch any passes. This year, it’s Chase Claypool.

You can fully expect to see Claypool’s receiving yards under as a play for as long as they keep giving us a line. Sure, it won’t win every week, but Claypool should goose egg more often than he gets to 16 receiving yards.

Claypool is the WR3 … probably … for the most run-heavy offense in the NFL. I say “probably” because I fully expect him to split snaps with Equanimeous St. Brown.

By the end of last season, Claypool was running fewer than 20 routes a game and was targeted on just 20% of them.

In his seven active games with the Bears, Claypool stayed under this number four times. I don’t actually believe he is part of the offense. My prediction for Claypool’s receiving yardage total this week is zero. But we just need under 15.5.

• My line
  15.5 -110 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  15.5 100 (Caesars)
• Lowest I’d go
  13.5

Tutu Atwell Under 33.5 Receiving Yards: -110 (BetMGM)

Tutu Atwell has been in the NFL for two years. He has a total of 298 receiving yards. He wasn’t good enough to even earn a single offensive snap as a rookie.

Last season, Atwell was forced into action due to injuries to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. In Week 14, it looked like Atwell had arrived. He caught five of nine targets for 50 yards. Then, over the final four games of the season, despite averaging over an 80% snap share, his highest receiving yardage total was 27.

Here we are again, with Atwell seemingly pushed up the depth chart due to Kupp’s absence. Except it’s a little different this year. Van Jefferson is the WR1. I expect Ben Skowronek to be the WR2 and rookie fifth-rounder Puka Nacua to see action as well.

Atwell is always liable to take a screen 40 yards and make this an instant loser, but absent some sort of splash play, I don’t see him earning enough volume to surpass this number.

• My line
  33.5 -110 (BetMGM)
• Current line
  32.5 -118 (BetRivers)
• Lowest I’d go
  30.5

Diontae Johnson Over 4.5 Receptions: -115 (BetMGM)

I was really tempted to make this a two-unit play, but Week 1 is very much a feeling-out process, so I don’t want to get overzealous. This line just feels wrong.

Diontae Johnson is one of the most elite target earners in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, he’s commanded 147, 169, and 144 targets. His 27% target share last season was 13th in the league.

In 17 games played last season, Johnson had eight games with double-digit targets. He had a whopping 12 games with at least five receptions.

I am bullish on the Steelers offense this season and expect Kenny Pickett to take a big step forward. Last season, the 49ers had a very good defense, but they were far more beatable through the air than on the ground.

I’m expecting at least 2-3 layup, low aDOT catches for Johnson. Going forward, his receptions line should regularly be 5.5 or perhaps even 6.5. This may be the only time we get a number this low.

• My line
  4.5 -110 (BetMGM)
• Current line
  4.5 -135 (BetMGM)
• Highest price I’d pay
  -135

Ryan Tannehill Under 31.5 Pass Attempts: -115 (BetMGM)

If this weren’t Week 1, I would probably pause at seeing a Ryan Tannehill pass attempts line this high. But the books are just as in the dark as we are.

Last season, Tannehill made 12 starts. He went over 31 pass attempts in just four of them.

I also believe the Titans are going to win this game. Since 2021, Tannehill has won 18 games. He’s gone over this number in four of them.

• My line
  31.5 -115 (BetMGM)
• Current line
  30.5 -105 (DraftKings)
• Lowest I’d go
  30.5

D’Andre Swift Over 10.5 Receiving Yards: -120 (DraftKings)

This is yet another instance of a line I would view as a sucker’s bet later in the season if I saw it. We all know D’Andre Swift’s proficiency as a receiver. This line suggests uncertainty regarding his role in the offense and whether the Eagles will throw to their running backs.

Swift is too talented of a player not to see at least a couple of targets. He went over this number in all but one game last season. He can do this on one reception. I’m confident the Eagles draw up at least one screen for him. All we need is for him to take it 11 yards. I will take the chance that this ends up being the lowest we see Swift’s receiving yardage total all season.

• My line
  10.5 -120 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  12.5 -120 (DraftKings)
• Highest I’d go
  12.5

Braxton Berrios Over 16.5 Receiving Yards: -115 (DraftKings)

It’s no secret that the bulk of Tua Tagovailoa’s passes will go in the direction of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But this game has the highest projected point total of the day. There should be a ton of offense and a ton of passing.

Braxton Berrios won the Dolphins WR3 job. Hill and Waddle can’t catch every pass. He can go over this number on just two receptions. It wouldn’t surprise me if this hit on the first drive.

• My line
  16.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  9.5 -120 (BetMGM) — I got a really bad line on this one
• Highest I’d go
  N/A — I obviously love this at 9.5.

*This has become a two-unit play, as I bet it a second time for one unit at 9.5. If I like it at 16.5, I have to love it at 9.5. Nothing really changed to explain the line movement, so I doubled down.

Bijan Robinson Over 13.5 Rush Attempts: -130 (BetMGM)

Currently, the Carolina Panthers are starting a rookie QB with possibly the worst offensive line in the league, missing his top two wide receivers. Bryce Young is going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball.

The Falcons are home favorites and facing a soft run defense. The game script is not going to get away from the most run-heavy team in the NFL from last season.

There’s no doubt Tyler Allgeier is going to mix in. I expect him to see 10+ carries. I also expect the Falcons to run the ball 30 times. Bijan Robinson should push 20 attempts in this one. I don’t think we see this number this low again all season.

• My line
  13.5 -130 (BetMGM)
• Current line
  14.5 -130 (DraftKings)
• Highest I’d go
  15.5

Allen Robinson Under 22.5 Receiving Yards: -110 (BetMGM)

This one is right out of the Kenny Golladay book of early-season wagering. We pinpoint washed wide receivers and take their unders.

Admittedly, this number is low enough that Allen Robinson could get there on just two receptions. However, given that he’s playing primarily out of the slot this year, it may take him three or even four receptions to surpass this number. I don’t think he sees that many targets, let alone catches.

• My line
  22.5 -110 (BetMGM)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  21.5

Javonte Williams Under 63.5 Rush + Receiving Yards: -115 (DraftKings)

The more I thought about this line, the more it stood out as just being too high. Sure, there’s always the chance Javonte Williams rips off a couple of big runs and pushes this over. However, I don’t think Sean Payton is going to feed Williams a ton of touches in his first regular season game back.

Between the reports of Jaleel McLaughlin being heavily involved, plus Samaje Perine’s presence, I have a hard time seeing more than 8-10 touches for Williams. He would have to be mighty efficient on limited touches. I believe the odds to be in our favor here.

• My line
  63.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  60.5

Tyjae Spears Under 4.5 Rush Attempts -115 (DraftKings)

When Derrick Henry is healthy, he is the only guy getting carries in the Titans backfield. Tyjae Spears may mix in on passing downs and handle a couple of carries, but the only way he gets to 5+ is if Henry gets hurt, or this game is noncompetitive in the fourth quarter. The former we cannot predict. The latter is highly unlikely.

• My line
  4.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  4.5

Michael Thomas Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)

We are back! For how long? I do not know. But we are back. The weekly Michael Thomas longest reception under returns for as long as Thomas can stay on the field.

Thomas played three games last season. He had a reception longer than 18 yards in one of them. In 2020, Thomas played seven games. He had a reception longer than 18 yards in four of them. In his epic 2019 season where he caught 149 passes, just 19 of them went for over 18 yards. This won’t win every week, but it will win more weeks than it loses.

• My line
  18.5 -120 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  18.5

Jaylen Warren Under 6.5 Rush Attempts -140 (DraftKings)

Update: On Sunday morning, Ian Rapaport reported that Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are expected to split carries. I am trusting this report and have cashed out of this bet for a -0.35 unit loss, which will be reflected in my record.

Jaylen Warren looked great last season. He looked great in the preseason. The consensus around the football world is that he’s better than Najee Harris. But the Steelers spent a first round pick on Harris, and are reportedly committed to him as their lead back.

I do believe the time will come when Warren forces more work. However, that is unlikely to be Week 1.

Warren may be involved plenty right out of the gate, but I expect it to be on passing downs. We could easily see 8-10 touches for Warren, but it could come in the form of 4-6 carries and 2-4 receptions.

• My line
  6.5 -140 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  6.5

Rondale Moore Under 34.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

I will preface by saying there’s a chance we get boned on this play late in the fourth quarter with the Commanders playing prevent, allowing Rondale Moore to rack up some easy receptions. But that’s really the only way I see this losing.

Rondale Moore lost the WR2 role to rookie Michael Wilson. I expect to only see Moore in three-receiver sets. If Josh Dobbs can get Moore and his 5.3 aDOT to 35 yards, more power to him.

• My line
  34.5 -115 (DraftKings)
• Current line
  same
• Lowest I’d go
  33.5

Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props

Eventually, anytime touchdown props will become unbettable. It happens every season. The books figure out the NFL landscape and nerf all the lines. But early in the season, there can be considerable value.

MORE: NFL Week 1 Odds, Spreads, and Betting Trends for Every Game

These bets are not included in my official record, but I will track them separately so everyone knows how they’re doing. Here’s what we’ve got for Week 1.

• Brian Robinson +165 (DraftKings)
• Juwan Johnson +265 (DraftKings)
• Jake Ferguson +320 (BetMGM)

Longshot Props

Every week, this section will include true longshots. These are bets that we do not really expect to hit but ones where the odds appear to be longer than they should be. These bets are also not included in my official record, and I will not be tracking them.

• Noah Brown anytime touchdown +950 (DraftKings)
• Charlie Kolar anytime touchdown +1200 (DraftKings0