Week 16 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 15 weeks of data, could Week 16 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 16 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 16 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
-
- Texans/Chiefs under 42
- Steelers +6
- Giants/Falcons over 42
- Lions/Bears over 48
- Bengals -7
- Titans +3.5
- Rams/Jets under 46
- Eagles/Commanders under 45.5
- Cardinals/Panthers under 47
- Vikings/Seahawks over 42.5
- Patriots +14
- Raiders -1
- 49ers/Dolphins under 44.5
- Buccaneers/Cowboys over 48.5
- Saints +14
David Bearman’s Picks
-
- Ravens/Steelers under 45.5
- Rams -3
- Jaguars/Raiders under 40.5
- 49ers +1.5
Jason Katz’s Picks
-
- Kyler Murray under 234.5 passing yards
- Joe Mixon under 61.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco under 66.5 rush + receiving yards
- Najee Harris under 65.5 scrimmage yards
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 216.5 passing yards
- Michael Penix Jr. under 229.5 passing yards
- Breece Hall under 83.5 rush + receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions
- Spencer Rattler 175+ passing yards
- Kendre Miller under 2.5 receptions
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday)
Katz: Since returning from his three-game absence, Joe Mixon has run for over 100 yards in six of his nine games. That’s a pretty good rate and one indicative of a player who is likely to at least get to 62 rushing yards.
But three of his last five have seen Mixon fail to reach 50 rushing yards. Last week, he carried the ball 12 times for 23 yards. Mixon is dealing with a minor ankle injury. The Texans have clinched the AFC South and can’t really move out of the fourth seed. They have no incentive to ride Mixon into the ground.
The Chiefs’ run defense has taken a slight step backward recently, but they still allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game. It should be another inefficient day for Mixon.
Pick: Joe Mixon under 61.5 rushing yards
Katz: Past performance does not guarantee future results. But this number is set at a level Isiah Pacheco has yet to reach since returning from IR.
Isiah Pacheco has totaled 49, 61, and 47 yards in his three games back. Last week, I thought we’d get further progression in Pacheco’s role. Instead, his snap share fell to 37%, and Kareem Hunt saw his heaviest workload since Pacheco’s return.
This week, everything points to another even split or the backfield possibly slightly favoring Hunt.
First, we have the matchup. The Texans allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game. Since we’re doing Pacheco’s combined yardage, he can obviously get there through the air, too. Will he? Probably not.
Just 11.6% of the total passing yards allowed by the Texans have gone to running backs, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Second, we have the situation. The Chiefs are playing their second of three games across 11 days. You have to imagine they don’t want to overwhelm Pacheco, knowing they have a game four days later.
Third, we have the return of Hollywood Brown. This smells like the type of game where the Chiefs use the short passing game in lieu of going heavy on the ground. Brown gives them another weapon to put pressure on the defense, making it less likely Patrick Mahomes needs to throw to his running back.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco under 66.5 rush + receiving yards
Soppe: The spread for this game has been all over the place this week based on which way the wind blows in terms of the Patrick Mahomes injury, but I have my eye more on the total.
Initially, the spread was hovering around three points in favor of the Texans, but it swung in the opposite direction as optimism around Mahomes grew, resulting in the home team giving those three points. In either event, the expectation is for this to be a tight game, and why would we expect anything different?
Through 15 weeks, here are the teams with a winning record who have seen the most games, for better or worse, be decided by seven or fewer points:
- Chiefs: 10
- Ravens: 10
- Rams: 10
- Texans: 9
For his career, C.J. Stroud has seen under tickets cash in 12 of 16 games when the spread is three or fewer points in either direction. While this game comes with risk at closing just outside of that, I think the general idea sticks in this spot.
Pick: Texans/Chiefs under 42
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Bearman: Four weeks ago, I faded the Ravens’ offense after it had scored 76 points in Weeks 9 and 10, taking the under 48 in their matchup with the Steelers. And as predicted, it didn’t come close, totaling 34.
That’s what happens when the Ravens and Steelers get together. It doesn’t matter what Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, or anyone on the Steelers had been doing in previous weeks. When John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin’s teams meet, they just don’t score against each other.
In the last eight meetings between Harbaugh’s Ravens and Tomlin’s Steelers, none of the matchups have reached 40, all eight hitting the under by at least five points (and on average by 8.9 ppg). Neither team has broken 20 in those last eight meetings.
We ride again.
Pick: Ravens/Steelers under 45.5
Katz: The Steelers have four losses on the season. Here are Najee Harris’ rushing totals in those four games: 19, 42, 41, 14. I think the Steelers will fall to the Ravens in Baltimore this week.
Taking the rushing + receiving line does give Harris an out via the passing game. However, with Jaylen Warren fully healthy, Harris’ receiving volume has evaporated. He’s seen one target over his last two games and is coming off a season-low 33% snap share.
Pick: Najee Harris under 65.5 scrimmage yards
Soppe: This will be the 16th regular-season meeting between the Ravens and Steelers during the Mike Tomlin era when a team is catching more than three points — underdogs have covered 13 of the first 15.
Bearman brings up some good notes when it comes to low point totals traditionally for this matchup, and this is, at some level, a play on that. If this game is played in the high 30s, the points we are getting to take the road team only increase in value.
Pittsburgh is coming off of a disappointing showing last week in Philadelphia, and while that is a data point to consider, it was their first loss this season that came by more than five points. Mike Tomlin has this team, for the most part, playing within itself and rarely making mistakes.
Assuming that is case and that the Steelers go with a very conservative game plan, this projects as a low-possession contest.
Pick: Steelers +6
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Katz: One of the biggest opportunities for bettors to take advantage of the books is when there is uncertainty. The best example of this is when backups make starts for the first time, regardless of position. We’ve taken advantage of this all year.
Michael Penix Jr. cannot possibly be worse than Kirk Cousins. But this notion that the Falcons are going to insert him into the starting lineup and have him air it out is not supported by history. Teams simply do not do that.
The Falcons are at home against the Giants. This game should not be close. The only team allowing more rushing yards per game than the Giants is the Panthers. We are going to see a whole lot of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will throw when the situation calls for it, and no more.
Penix will not need to throw for 230 yards, and I don’t think he even gets to 200.
Pick: Michael Penix Jr. under 229.5 passing yards
Soppe: Giants fans were hopeful that 2024 would be a big season for Daniel Jones, while Falcons fans hoped that their offseason acquisition of Kirk Cousins would push this team up a tier in the hierarchy of the NFL.
Nope, hasn’t happened. Not even close.
But is it possible that the current unknown of these offenses offers more upside than what those veteran QBs put on tape?
Since 2019, overs are 9-4 when a rookie quarterback is giving more than seven points. It doesn’t happen a ton, but when it does, we typically see points on the board. My thought is we’ll see that because the coaching staff wants their young gun to set the pace early, even as a significant favorite.
There is no denying that Penix offers a level of upside that Cousins, over the past month, simply didn’t have access to. In betting any over, I typically want to be confident in both offenses being able to sustain drives. That’s not the case here, but if I’m confident that neither defense can prevent long drives, isn’t that at some level the same thing for a game with a low total like this?
Since Week 9, these are two of the six worst defenses in turnover rate and two of the nine worst in red-zone defense. That run for Atlanta started against the Cowboys in the week in which Dak Prescott’s season ended. In that game, Dallas had to pivot mid-game under center while the Falcons averaged just 3.3 yards per carry as a team and saw Drake London catch just two passes.
Those aren’t exactly glowing offensive reports, but because neither defense offered much upside (one turnover and five total sacks), there were 48 points scored. We don’t need that many points to cash this ticket. If these teams can simply make the most of their red-zone drives, we should get home, even if it’s not with a glorious stat sheet on either side.
Pick: Giants/Falcons over 42
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Soppe: The spread feels a little light, but road divisional games can be tricky this time of year, especially when one team is dealing with a significant injury and the other has a sporadic rookie QB that can look drastically different with each passing drive.
In a situation with some moving pieces, I want to gamble on something that I feel comfortable in. Even with the David Montgomery injury, I feel good about labeling the Lions as a top-four team in the NFL. Do you?
GOFF TO AMON-RA. 66-YARD TD.
Not over in Detroit.
📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uHEKLWabzy— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Since 2016, we’ve seen teams that ultimately make the NFL’s final four ramp up the scoring environment late in the season, especially in this ultra-specific spot. Here are the over rates for teams that advance to their conference championship in that exact spot (road team favored by more than a field goal):
- December-January: 24-18-2 (57.1%)
- September-November: 42-54-2 (43.8%)
Yes, that’s a mouthful. Maybe it’s overthinking things, but with Montgomery sidelined, I’m looking for the Lions to put more on Jared Goff’s plate and for them to want to see what that looks like. The Bears are one of these defenses allowing 30+ points per game over the past four weeks, and this is the type of offense that can cruise past 30 points given their efficiency.
Pick: Lions/Bears over 48
Katz: It’s really unfortunate that David Montgomery is done for the season. But that means Jahmyr Gibbs is about to see a whole lot more work.
Recently, Gibbs has been seeing more work as a receiver. He has 11 receptions over his last two games.
Additionally, David Montgomery’s receiving role has been much increased this year. He’s caught at least three passes in five straight games.
All of that is about to be consolidated in Gibbs. And last year, in the game Montgomery got hurt and subsequently the one he missed, Gibbs caught nine and five passes.
I expect multiple designed pass plays for Gibbs and for him to possibly clear this by halftime.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Katz: I don’t think there’s any chance any of you will have this line by the time you read this. Jameis Winston seems to have everyone forgetting what this offense looks like without him.
Deshaun Watson did not hit 200 yards passing in a single game before getting hurt. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, somehow, is a worse quarterback than Watson. Even against the Bengals’ league-worst pass defense, I have no faith in DTR to complete forward passes with any consistency.
Pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 216.5 passing yards
Soppe: Did this total adjust enough in a downward way after the benching of Jameis Winston? I lean “no,” but you’re not going to find me investing my hard-earned money on an under with Joe Burrow favored against a below-average defense.
I’d rather, at some level, bet on this Cincinnati defense. Or, more accurately, bet against the Cleveland offense. The Browns are 17-27 ATS (38.6%) since 2015 in games with a closing total over 46 points. Winston was a unique experience, but by and large, this franchise has been unable to find upside at the quarterback position. I’m not sold that Dorian Thompson-Robinson offers much in that regard.
Stopping the Bengals from reaching 27 points is something that no defense has done since Week 8, and that means we are cashing this ticket if DTR can’t clear 20 points.
I’ll take my chances.
Pick: Bengals -7
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Soppe: If you’ve been watching football late in the year consistently, you’re aware that the AFC South is a crap shoot this time of year. Over the past 20 winter games (Dec. 1 or later), favorites sit at just 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) in AFC South battles — so I’m pretty willing to take the ‘dog in this spot.
We’ve got a few backup QBs under center this week, and I think that results in some boring football. “Boring,” however, can be profitable. Since Week 3, once have the Colts won a game by more than three points. With Anthony Richardson’s production being spotty, I’m OK with stepping in front of an offense that carries a wide range of outcomes over the course of 60 minutes.
Pick: Titans +3.5
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Bearman: Yeah, we lost betting against the Jets last week, but it was a classic case of right side, wrong result. The Jags were getting 3.5 and covering for 58 minutes and 55 seconds of that game. Even after tying it with 1:51, we figured, worst case, Jags lose on a FG (and we cover). But bad teams do bad things and the Jags allowed a late TD.
The Rams are not a bad team and control their own destiny for the NFC west title. Wins over the Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks give Sean McVay and Co. another playoff birth.
They’ve won four of five and look like a team you don’t want to face in the postseason. Even with the cover, the Jets are only 5-9 ATS this season, and two of them were last second. We will take the much better team here only giving three on the road.
Pick: Rams -3
Soppe: I dove into the Aaron Rodgers matchup with the Rams and my reservations about his recent heater continuing in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em column. If that rings true, we’ve got a few things pulling in the same direction.
Unders are 11-5 (68.7%) in Matthew Stafford’s last 16 starts with a total over 45 points. He’s capable of putting points on the board, but the greater the expectation, the less room for error, and that has proven to be an issue in the past.
Pick: Rams/Jets under 46
Katz: There really is a ton of value in fading name-brand players. Breece Hall is obviously a supreme talent. He’s also obviously not fully healthy. Yet, this line heavily suggests Hall will see around 85% of his full workload.
Hall was not listed on the injury report this week, but forgive me if I don’t buy that his knee is suddenly not an issue. Last week, he played a season-low 48% of the snaps. Sure, that is likely to go up this week, but by how much?
The Jets are rotating in Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen. Davis played just four fewer snaps than Hall last week. Hall turned 11 touches into 51 yards.
The Rams do have a weak run defense, but they’ve been decent at limiting receptions out of the backfield, with just 14.8% of their total passing yards allowed going to RBs. But this is less about the matchup and more about Hall not being 100% and not seeing enough volume to get to 80 total yards.
Pick: Breece Hall under 83.5 rush + receiving yards
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Soppe: The Eagles are trending in as positive a direction as anyone and there are plenty of questions being asked about the Commanders, thus giving us a spot where the road team is sitting pretty in a divisional game among playoff teams.
Unders are 18-6 (75%) in the last 24 NFC East games where the road team is favored – these games have a way of being tight and, with each possession gaining value in such spots, the number of opportunities could be limited and drawn out.
These are two of the bottom-10 teams in dropback rate, furthering my belief that we are looking at a race to the low-to-mid 20s. There were 44 points scored in the first meeting between these two rivals, 28 of which came in the final 12 minutes.
In that contest, Austin Ekeler (now on injured reserve) led Washington in catches, targets, and yards while Zach Ertz (six catches, TD) and Saquon Barkley (198 yards, 2 TDs) thrived — both of whom were dinged up last week.
I like the chances of one team failing to reach 20 more than I do of either soaring past 25, and that is why you can find me on the under this week.
Pick: Eagles/Commanders under 45.5
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Katz: Kyler Murray has gone over this number in four of his last five games. Now, he gets a Panthers defense that no one mistakes for a particularly imposing foe. Yet, we are going under. Why?
The Cardinals have seven wins this season. In those wins, Murray averages 222.4 passing yards. He’s gone over this number in three of them.
This week, the Cardinals are heavy home favorites over the Panthers. More importantly, the Panthers have the worst run defense in the league by far. This should be a big James Conner game, especially in light of his 110-yard, two-touchdown performance last week. Simply put, Murray won’t throw enough on a Panthers defense allowing the 12th-fewest passing yards per game.
Pick: Kyler Murray under 234.5 passing yards
Soppe: This is a quarterback-driven league, and that means when I’m not confident in either quarterback, I’m going to trend toward the unders.
I’m not putting Kyler Murray and Bryce Young in the same tier, but neither is playing at a reliable level. Murray has just three multi-TD pass games this season and has thrown multiple picks in two of his past three.
And he’s the most consistent signal-caller in this game — Young has more interceptions than touchdown passes this season, not to mention a sub-60% completion rate. We’ve seen these two offenses hit on big plays from time to time, and maybe we get a splash play or two this weekend. But if sustained drives are going to be few and far between, how are we getting anywhere near this total?
Unders are 7-1 when Kyler Murray is a road favorite, a trend that I think continues. The Panthers have seen their point total decrease in every game since returning from the Week 11 bye. If they are struggling to reach 20 points on Sunday, I like where this ticket sits.
Pick: Cardinals/Panthers under 47
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Soppe: I don’t have confidence in either QB in that Cardinals/Panthers game, and while I’m not labeling Sam Darnold or Geno Smith as franchise centerpieces, the veterans are capable of moving the ball with regularity. I think we see more of that this week.
Both of these defenses are aggressive, but does it matter? Through 15 weeks, both units are bottom-10 in pressure rate when bringing the heat. If that means that Darnold/Smith have time to find their explosive playmakers down the field, I like the potential of this ticket (and potentially an upward ladder).
Overs are 6-1 in Seattle’s last seven home games where the total is south of 45 points (unders are 5-1 otherwise). They’ve proven to be a computer tricker when it comes to projected point totals, and with both teams capable of approaching 30 points, this total might be a score too low.
Pick: Vikings/Seahawks over 42.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Soppe: Underdogs are 16-7 ATS (69.6)% over the past 23 divisional games with a double-digit spread, and that is the trend I’m electing to back this week. Drake Maye profiles as the type of quarterback who covers a number like this late in the contest, with the game already decided, in the name of development.
In Week 11 against the Rams, the Patriots turned a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit into a six-point loss. Last week, they would have earned a push on this number thanks to a pair of late touchdowns.
The Bills covered this number against the Patriots in Week 16, 2020 — that was the last time they did so in the regular season. I don’t think they have any chance to win this game outright, but there are a lot of paths to getting inside of this number, especially given the defensive lapses that we’ve seen from Buffalo over the past wo weeks.
Pick: Patriots +14
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Bearman’s Pick: You know I love bad offenses on bad teams facing each other. Both these teams are already looking at winter tee times and are realistically fighting to lose and get a better draft pick. The Jags scored a bunch of late points against a similarly done Jets team, but before that, were held to 10-20-6-7 the previous four games.You saw how bad the Raiders offense was last week with Desmond Ridder. O’Connell should be back, but does it matter? The Raiders last topped 19 points in Week 10 and have been held to 20 or under in all but 3 games this season.
For this to hit 41, either both teams would have to score 20+, which just hasn’t happened often or one team would have to score a lot, which also does not happen. You have teams ranked 26th (Jax) and 29th (LV) in scoring.
Pick: Jaguars/Raiders under 40.5
Soppe: I don’t have a strong lean here, but I did want to share a recent trend for those looking to bet on this game and thus have a reason to pay attention to a game that otherwise would be easy to avoid.
Favorites are 12-4-1 ATS since Week 5 in games with a total no greater than 40. This team has two of the best rookie skill players in the league, but I think that Brock Bowers requires less from his quarterback to get him involved than Brian Thomas Jr.
Pick: Raiders -1
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Bearman’s Pick: Not all 6-8 records are created equal. The Niners are banged up, but they have also shown they can beat decent teams with wins over Cardinals, Seahawks and Bucs, not to mention playing better the last few weeks. You’ve seen the Dolphins narrative. Can’t beat winning teams. Now, the Niners are technically do not have a winning record, but we can all agree they are better than a 6-8 team.
The guy on the Niners sideline taught the guy on the Dolphins sideline, so there won’t be many surprises that Shanahan hasn’t seen. Miami continues to struggle in must-win games or adjust to a team with a good coach. Now McDaniel faces his mentor with the season on the line. We’ve seen this movie before.
Pick: 49ers +1.5
Soppe: There has been much made over the past few weeks when it comes to Tua Tagovailoa against “good” teams. I understand the angle, but are the 49ers a good team that is simply struggling? Or are they a depleted roster who is now to be labeled as below average?
Narratives are fleeting as it is, and when they carry this much gray area, I’ll pass on the spread. That said, I do think there’s an angle to take on the total, given the trajectory of Miami’s starting quarterback.
In Tagovailoa’s first seven career starts in which the spread is three or fewer points, in either direction, unders cashed on just two occasions.
Since? They are 12-3. I think we see that record extend to 13-3 this week with significant offensive injuries on both sides hurting the explosive play potential.
Pick: 49ers/Dolphins under 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
Soppe: New year, new Baker Mayfield? I see no reason to pivot off of that idea, so I’m encouraged by the fact that overs are 3-0 when he’s played in prime time this season (2-11 for his career prior).
Cooper Rush quietly has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his past four games, and Rico Dowdle is approaching strong company when it comes to undrafted running backs and 100-yard rushing streaks.
This total is going to carry some sticker shock, but I’m not sure it’s high enough. I think both offenses can produce with consistency in this spot, and that’s the premise that I’m using for this ticket. That said, I believe there is some defensive splash-play potential and that doesn’t hurt. Both of these defenses are top-five units in pressure rate through 15 weeks.
The trajectory of both of these offenses has me taking an optimistic approach, and the hope for some short fields has me leaning all the way into this total.
Pick: Buccaneers/Cowboys over 48.5