When Santa pulls into Herald Square Thursday afternoon, he’s kicking off more than the Christmas season.
He’s announcing the unofficial start of NFL playoff-clinching season. The Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City can become the first teams to punch their postseason ticket this weekend.
Will they do it? Find out ahead of time with our NFL Week 13 picks.
All playoff and No. 1 pick percentages are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48)
The Lions are an absolute wagon. They’ve won their last nine games by an average margin that’s almost impossible to believe: 17.2 points per game.
Their season point differential — 177 — is by far the best in the league. But they will need to pick up the pace to catch the 2007 New England Patriots for the all-time NFL record (315).
Thursday’s first course of the NFL tripleheader shouldn’t be close. The Bears are in a tailspin, having lost five straight. Caleb Williams is the NFL’s No. 32 quarterback, and the Bears have the NFL’s 27th offense, according to PFN+ metrics.
The Lions and Jared Goff, meanwhile, rank in the top 5 in PR+, OFF+, DEF+, and QB+.
They can clinch a playoff berth with six weeks to go with a win and help from the 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Buccaneers.
- David Bearman: Lions
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Dakota Randall: Lions
- Dallas Robinson: Lions
- Kyle Soppe: Lions
- Dan Tomaro: Lions
- Mike Wobschall: Lions
- Anthony DiBona: Lions
- The Lions win in 79.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3, 37.5)
FOX executives likely had indigestion long before they sat down for Thanksgiving dinner.
They thought they had ratings gold when the league handed them Giants-Cowboys in the 4:30 window, and that still might be the case.
But the number of viewers won’t be what it could have been considering the Giants are horrific and the Cowboys aren’t much better. Their six combined wins are the fewest of any of the 16 Week 13 games.
The advanced metrics agree. These are two of the six worst teams in football, according to PR+. And unlike the Giants, who at least have a 26.3% chance at the No. 1 pick, the Cowboys are in football purgatory — too good for a premium draft pick, and just 3.5% to make the playoffs.
- David Bearman: Cowboys
- Adam Beasley: Cowboys
- Dakota Randall: Cowboys
- Dallas Robinson: Cowboys
- Kyle Soppe: Cowboys
- Dan Tomaro: Cowboys
- Mike Wobschall: Cowboys
- Anthony DiBona: Cowboys
The Cowboys win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, 48)
The Packers (seventh in PR+, eighth in OFF+) are the best team left on the schedule for the Dolphins. The same cannot be said the other way around. Three of Green Bay’s final five games are against teams currently in the playoff field (Lions, Seahawks, Vikings).
The Packers are largely playing for postseason seeding. They’re a whopping 94.1% to get into the postseason, per the PFN Playoff Predictor.
The Dolphins (34.9% playoff chance), meanwhile, have basically no margin for error. One more loss could doom them in a top-heavy AFC.
And historically, this type of a game is a loss for the Dolphins.
In the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have been bad against good teams (5-14, with a total offensive EPA of -90.79 against teams who enter the matchup .500 or better), bad in cold weather (2-10, including playoffs, when the game-time temperature is 55 or below), and bad in prime time (3-9, including the postseason).
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Dakota Randall: Packers
- Dallas Robinson: Packers
- Kyle Soppe: Packers
- Dan Tomaro: Packers
- Mike Wobschall: Dolphins
- Anthony DiBona: Packers
The Packers win in 67.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-13, 42.5)
Honestly, Black Friday shopping will probably be more entertaining than this one.
Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew (broken collarbone) is done for the season, so Antonio Pierce likely turns back to Aidan O’Connell, who hasn’t played since breaking his thumb in Week 7.
In four games (including two starts) this year, O’Connell has completed 62.4% of his passes for two touchdowns and two interceptions. That won’t help a Raiders attack that ranks 28th in OFF+.
But a loss is probably a win for a Raiders team with a 17.8% chance at the No. 1 pick.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are always in Super Bowl-or-bust mode.
Their stout defense has been more of a weak seltzer the last two weeks, allowing 57 points and ranking 27th in EPA per play (.192) since Week 11.
Still, they secure their spot in the postseason for the 10th straight season with a win and a Dolphins or Broncos loss, among other ways.
- David Bearman: Chiefs
- Adam Beasley: Chiefs
- Dakota Randall: Chiefs
- Dallas Robinson: Chiefs
- Kyle Soppe: Chiefs
- Dan Tomaro: Chiefs
- Mike Wobschall: Chiefs
- Anthony DiBona: Chiefs
The Chiefs win in 88.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 48.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jim Harbaugh loves him some Justin Herbert, but Herbo Mode has had a halftime expiration date this season.
Herbert is 36th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in second-half EPA+CPOE in 2024 (-.017).
In the Chargers’ 30-23 Week 11 loss to the Ravens, Herbert completed just 44.4% of his passes and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. With the L, the Chargers’ playoff hopes dipped to 79.4%.
If Herbert can’t get it done Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons and the NFL’s No. 30 defense (per DEF+), there’s real reason for concern. The Falcons have lost two straight and three out of four, and even though they still lead the NFC South at 6-5, they’re just 42.2% to make the playoffs.
- David Bearman: Falcons
- Adam Beasley: Falcons
- Dakota Randall: Chargers
- Dallas Robinson: Chargers
- Kyle Soppe: Falcons
- Dan Tomaro: Falcons
- Mike Wobschall: Chargers
- Anthony DiBona: Chargers
The Chargers win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47.5)
Are the Steelers as good as their 8-3 record? You can find reasons to doubt them, if so inclined.
Their strength of schedule (.432) is easily the worst among the seven AFC teams currently in the postseason field, and five of their eight wins — and all three of their losses — have been by one score.
It’ll be interesting to see how Russell Wilson and the 24th-ranked Steelers offense (per OFF+) fair against a terrible Bengals defense (29th in DEF+).
Since Week 8, the Bengals — who are 4-7 and have just a 7.8% chance of making the playoffs — have allowed a whopping 130 points. According to OFF+, Joe Burrow is having the best season of his career (91.8 rating) — and Cincinnati still stinks.
- David Bearman: Bengals
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- Dakota Randall: Bengals
- Dallas Robinson: Steelers
- Kyle Soppe: Bengals
- Dan Tomaro: Steelers
- Mike Wobschall: Bengals
- Anthony DiBona: Steelers
The Steelers win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Houston Texans (-3.5, 43.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The AFC South is such a mess. The division has 29 losses through 12 weeks — the most in the NFL — and is a combined -211 point differential. By way of comparison, the NFC North’s aggregate PD is a whopping 323.
In other words, the division is the Texans’ to win (69.8%, per PFN’s metrics) — if they can just be competent the final month and a half. That’s a big if. They’ve lost four of their last six games — albeit all by one score.
The Jaguars should get a boost at quarterback. Trevor Lawrence looks likely to play after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. His backup, Mac Jones, was terrible in relief; his -.400 adjusted EPA is 46th out of 47 quarterbacks.
- David Bearman: Texans
- Adam Beasley: Texans
- Dakota Randall: Texans
- Dallas Robinson: Texans
- Kyle Soppe: Texans
- Dan Tomaro: Texans
- Mike Wobschall: Texans
- Anthony DiBona: Texans
The Texans win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 45)
Eagles-Ravens will get all the attention, but Cardinals-Vikings is a sneaky great game.
It’s a matchup of two top-10 teams, per PR+, and a great contrast in styles: Kyler Murray and a dangerous Cardinals offense against Brian Flores’ manic defense.
Flo already has a blueprint to slow down Arizona (which ranks fifth in OFF+); just borrow generously from Mike Macdonald’s approach in Week 12.
Macdonald’s Seahawks last week stopped the Cardinals on nine of 12 third-down attempts and both red-zone opportunities.
Don’t be surprised if these teams meet twice in a little over a month. The Vikings (9-2) are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs (95.6% entering Week 12); even after last week’s loss, the Cardinals (6-5) are still 63.6% to get in.
- David Bearman: Cardinals
- Adam Beasley: Cardinals
- Dakota Randall: Cardinals
- Dallas Robinson: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Dan Tomaro: Cardinals
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
- Anthony DiBona: Vikings
The Vikings win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 42.5) vs. New England Patriots
Quarterback development is far more important than wins or losses for these two organizations the rest of the way.
The Colts need all the information they can get on Anthony Richardson, even if it comes at the expense of their still-real chance of making the playoffs (33.7% entering Week 12).
Jerod Mayo’s Patriots, meanwhile, are arguably the NFL’s worst team. They’re 29th in PR+, 31st in OFF+, and have a 19.1% chance of landing the first pick in the draft.
If they get it, they should trade it to a team that needs a quarterback and use it on assets to help their young QB. Drake Maye looks promising, if raw and largely outgunned, so far in his young career.
- David Bearman: Patriots
- Adam Beasley: Colts
- Dakota Randall: Patriots
- Dallas Robinson: Colts
- Kyle Soppe: Colts
- Dan Tomaro: Patriots
- Mike Wobschall: Patriots
- Anthony DiBona: Colts
The Colts win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Seattle Seahawks (-2, 41.5) vs. New York Jets
The Seahawks went from the outhouse to the penthouse of the NFC West in two short weeks, and it’s been defense leading the way.
After allowing 57 points in the two games prior to the bye (both losses), they surrendered 17 in a Week 11 win over the San Francisco 49ers and six in a Week 12 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
They’re up to 12th now in DEF+, a big reason why they’re at 41.4% to make the playoffs even though the difference between first and last in the NFC West is just one game.
The Jets, meanwhile, are a total mess. They’ve lost seven out of eight and fired their GM during the bye.
Is this the last six games of Aaron Rodgers’ career? He isn’t saying. But it’s hard to see Rodgers — who’s 21st in QB+ — going out like this.
- David Bearman: Seahawks
- Adam Beasley: Seahawks
- Dakota Randall: Seahawks
- Dallas Robinson: Seahawks
- Kyle Soppe: Seahawks
- Dan Tomaro: Jets
- Mike Wobschall: Jets
- Anthony DiBona: Seahawks
The Seahawks win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders (-5.5, 44.5)
Things have certainly taken a turn for the worse in the nation’s capital since Election Day. We’re talking, of course, about the fortunes of the Commanders, who haven’t won in nearly a month.
One-score losses to the Steelers and Eagles are understandable, if not forgivable. But no one should give Dan Quinn a pass for what happened at home in Week 12 — a 34-26 loss to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in a game that featured two Dallas kickoff returns for touchdowns in the final five minutes.
As a result, Washington is now 7-5 and basically even money to make the playoffs after thinking division title just a few weeks ago.
And it’s not like the Titans can’t pull off an upset. They just stunned the Texans on the road.
- David Bearman: Commanders
- Adam Beasley: Commanders
- Dakota Randall: Titans
- Dallas Robinson: Commanders
- Kyle Soppe: Commanders
- Dan Tomaro: Titans
- Mike Wobschall: Commanders
- Anthony DiBona: Commanders
The Commanders win in 68.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 46.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers draw the unlucky card of having to play a team coming off two straight byes.
We kid, we kid. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers technically did play a game last week, bludgeoning a Giants team 30-7 that started Tommy DeVito at quarterback.
Bryce Young (38th in QB+) certainly isn’t great, but he’s better than that. And the Panthers might be starting to figure things out a bit
After a 1-7 start, they beat the Saints and Giants and — most impressively — took the Chiefs to the wire last Sunday. Young has thrown just three interceptions in his last six games after throwing three in his first two starts of 2024.
- David Bearman: Panthers
- Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
- Dakota Randall: Buccaneers
- Dallas Robinson: Buccaneers
- Kyle Soppe: Buccaneers
- Dan Tomaro: Panthers
- Mike Wobschall: Buccaneers
- Anthony DiBona: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 67.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 49) vs. New Orleans Saints
How long will the Honeymoon Effect last for interim Saints coach Darren Rizzi? The sugar high for most coaching changes wears off after two weeks.
But the Saints — winners of two straight since firing Dennis Allen — are coming off their bye, which gave them another week to figure out even more ways to use their unicorn Taysom Hill.
He’s got to be licking his chops after seeing what went down during his weekend off.
The Rams’ playoff hopes (now just 17.1%) took a big hit in Week 12. But the psychological impact of the Eagles rushing for 314 yards might be even bigger. There’s no rest for the weary this week; New Orleans ranks ninth in yards per carry (4.6).
- David Bearman: Rams
- Adam Beasley: Rams
- Dakota Randall: Rams
- Dallas Robinson: Rams
- Kyle Soppe: Rams
- Dan Tomaro: Saints
- Mike Wobschall: Rams
- Anthony DiBona: Rams
The Rams win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3, 51)
A Super Bowl preview on Thanksgiving Weekend?
It’s certainly a possibility. Forget about the quarterback play — Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson should be great.
These are the two best ground attacks in all of football.
Saquon Barkley — the reigning PFN Offensive Player of the Week — leads Derrick Henry by 67 yards for the NFL lead in rushing yards with 1,392, despite playing one fewer game.
Barkley, in the Eagles’ win over the Los Angeles Rams Sunday, set the franchise’s single-game record for rushing yards, going for 255 yards — the ninth-most in league history — on 26 carries.
Some 24 hours later, Henry answered with a 24-carry, 140-yard game of his own.
But this battle of smash-mouth offenses might come down to who has the best defense, and the Eagles (fourth in DEF+) have the edge over the Ravens (18th) in that part of the game.
- David Bearman: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Dakota Randall: Eagles
- Dallas Robinson: Ravens
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Dan Tomaro: Eagles
- Mike Wobschall: Eagles
- Anthony DiBona: Eagles
The Ravens win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (-7, 44.5)
Sometimes, it’s just not your year. And it’s certainly starting to feel that way for the 49ers, who dealt with a Christian McCaffrey injury early and a Brock Purdy injury late.
Purdy’s status for Sunday was up in the air as of Wednesday afternoon, but if he can’t go, it’s to the Bills’ advantage. Purdy is fifth in QB+ (89.6) in 2024; his replacement, Brandon Allen, produced points on just two of 12 drives in San Francisco’s Week 12 loss to the Packers.
But the bigger concern for the Niners is their run game. The Packers held them to just 44 yards on 16 carries.
There’s nothing at all wrong with the Bills, who rolled into their Week 12 bye winners of six straight. They’ve scored 30 or more points in eight of their 11 games and are second behind just the Lions in PFN’s Power Rankings.
Buffalo (9-2) can clinch its fifth straight AFC East title with a win and a Dolphins loss to the Packers.
- David Bearman: Bills
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- Dakota Randall: Bills
- Dallas Robinson: Bills
- Kyle Soppe: Bills
- Dan Tomaro: 49ers
- Mike Wobschall: Bills
- Anthony DiBona: Bills
The Bills win in 66% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-5.5, 42)
With all the great football of Week 13, the grand finale feels like a bit of a dud.
The Browns have certainly been better with Jameis Winston under center than Deshaun Watson, but that’s not saying much.
Plus, Winston has not yet seen a defense like he will Monday. The Broncos rank first in DEF+ and have allowed 20 points or more in just three of their 12 games.
Denver’s playoff chances are all the way up to 70% after wins in seven of its last 10 games. Even after beating the Steelers in Week 12, the Browns still have nearly a one-in-10 chance of landing the No. 1 pick — which almost certainly would be a quarterback.
- David Bearman: Broncos
- Adam Beasley: Broncos
- Dakota Randall: Broncos
- Dallas Robinson: Broncos
- Kyle Soppe: Broncos
- Dan Tomaro: Browns
- Mike Wobschall: Broncos
- Anthony DiBona: Broncos
The Broncos win in 78.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 12
- Mike Wobschall: 69.5%
- Kyle Soppe: 65.7%
- Adam Beasley: 63.5%
- David Bearman: 62.9%
- Anthony DiBona: 62.9%
- Dan Tomaro: 60.1%
- Dallas Robinson: 61.8%
- Dakota Randall: 56.7%