Last week’s NFL picks were once again kind for the Against The Spread podcast crew. As for player props specifically, we are on 2-0 streak of Plays of the Week hitting. With Mark Ingram having a massive performance last week in Kansas City, he joined Ezekiel Elliott from Week 2 as early-season money makers.
Week 3 was not as successful as Week 2. In a season of top-heavy contenders, as well as league cellar-dwellers playing for April’s Draft, NFL parity has gone by the wayside. Bookmakers have realized this with heavy spreads and ridiculous NFL odds recently.
It is with a mindset of quick-hitters and the ever-present low-hanging fruit that will be the focus on Week 4’s player prop guide. Player props typically have the best chance of profitable NFL picks because of the volume offered, and the limited ability for books to correct the market as efficiently as against the spread and totals.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Mack to attack the Silver and Black
Keeping the momentum going with the Against the Spread player prop play-of-the-week, we need to find the NFL picks and player betting lines that cause minimal stress and no headaches if possible.
If you are looking for no headaches, forget the Advil in the medicine cabinet – just root for a running back at home against the lowly Raiders.
Marlon Mack is looking at a potential top-producing running back week in fantasy and his Over/Under total rushing plus receiving yards are in the double-digits, albeit barely.
The Colts young runner needs to eclipse 99.5 combined yards from scrimmage against a team that has given up an average of 112.3 yards per game on the ground alone in three games so far this season.
In full disclosure, Mack only has 26 yards on four receptions out of the backfield this season, but there is plenty of evidence to believe he will hit this mark with rushing yards alone.
With a banged-up T.Y. Hilton, and Jacoby Brissett looking to maintain time-of-possession and a likely lead, look for Mack to exceed 25 touches, which would mean a measly four yards per could hit this figure. He is currently rushing for 4.9 yards per attempt, so this number is very reachable against a lousy team.
Mack is a stellar fantasy play this week, and could safely win you a double-dose of units. Place your NFL picks on Mack and these Colts.
OVER 99.5 rushing plus receiving yards (-112): Marlon Mack (2 units)
A Giant Trifecta of NFL Picks
It’s Daniel Jones hysteria in New York and if “Danny Dimes” replicates last week’s gem of a performance, he is sure to be a virtual mint for bettors again on Sunday. It’s apropos that Sterling Shepard and Mr. Dimes produce some silver for you this weekend.
Last week, the two connected seven times for a clean 100 yards and a score. Nine total targets and an injured Saquon Barkley mixed with a Washington Redskins team on the brink of a disaster season.
Let us also throw in another nugget to this alchemist’s treat and mention that it is the last week until Golden Tate returns for the Giants. This could be an epic performance for Jones and Shepard alike, as their stats will go hand-in-hand, literally.
The yardage total for Shepard is one I love at over 63.5, but the 5.5 reception is a tad riskier. If you are feeling dangerous, like Jones surely is, throw a unit on the over receptions total as well to go with both player’s yardage marks.
A Tri-State Triple-Play player prop with excellent odds.
OVER 253.5 passing yards (-112): Daniel Jones (1 unit)
OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-108): Sterling Shepard (1 unit)
OVER 5.5 reception yards (+116): Sterling Shepard (1 unit)
Ekeler with his feature-back finale?
There are two sides to every story. In the Melvin Gordon drama, some owners are thrilled and some owners are near tears.
On the flip side, those who drafted Gordon anywhere beyond the first round are dancing their way to their roster edit page for Week 5 and rumor has it, possibly Week 4.
With a soft matchup against the pitiful Miami Dolphins, Gordon may see snaps. But he is not an advisable start, as the volume will likely not be there.
Enter Ekeler once again, and perhaps for the last time this season as an RB1. With the Dolphins giving up an astronomical 208 yards a game on the ground, Ekeler should have a feast in Miami today.
He has been superb this season in feature-back duties to a tune of 368 total yards with 19 receptions and four touchdowns. With these stats, make no mistake he is still a weekly fantasy asset. However, the bulk touches will be lost come Week 5 to Gordon.
Imagine the timing of getting the Dolphins right before losing that designation. Ekeler could potentially go for a “double-triple” here and rattle off 100+ yards on the ground as well as in the air with a score or two.
Mind you, Justin Jackson is out so unless Gordon gets significant burn, which isn’t a solid bet, look for Ekeler to get a proper “swan-song” so-to-speak.
* At time of writing, no yardage total had been set. The total for combined rush and receiving yards is 112.5 — higher than in my projection. Although there’s still a lean this way, I can’t recommend an official NFL pick.
Kerryon My Wager Son
Don’t adjust your computer, the Lions are actually unbeaten. Sitting at 2-0-1, Detroit plays host to the fellow unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. I expect the Lions won’t emerge victorious here, but I do expect a solid rushing performance from Kerryon Johnson.
Although he hasn’t gone over 50-yards on the ground and is putting up a worrisome 2.6 yards per carry, the Chiefs are ranked 26th against the run thus far, giving up 137.7 rushing yards per game. Johnson adds a tad of a passing-attack aspect to his game, with five receptions and 67 yards in three games, but he has the talent to turn a catch into a 20-yard plus play, as he is averaging 13.4 yards per catch out of the backfield.
The Lions would be wise to do their absolute best to control the clock with Johnson and keep moving the chains while making Patrick Mahomes a sideline spectator while his defense is on the field.
*OVER 85.5 combined rush and receiving yards (-112): Kerryon Johnson (1 unit)
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